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Tropical Storm Rosa Public Advisory Number 25
2018-10-01 10:38:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Mon Oct 01 2018 448 WTPZ35 KNHC 010838 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Rosa Advisory Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018 200 AM PDT Mon Oct 01 2018 ...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES... ...FLOODING, DEBRIS FLOWS, AND LANDSLIDES POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE WESTERN UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.7N 117.0W ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM WSW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM SSW OF SAN FELIPE MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos to Cabo San Quintin A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Bahia de los Angeles to San Felipe Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of Rosa. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rosa was located near latitude 26.7 North, longitude 117.0 West. Rosa is moving toward the northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Rosa will approach the central and northern Baja California peninsula later today and then move across the peninsula into the northern Gulf of California tonight. Rosa's remnants are then expected to move across the Desert Southwest on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast through tonight while Rosa approaches and moves over the northern Baja California peninsula. Rosa is expected to dissipate over northwestern Mexico or the southwestern United States by Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Rosa is expected to produce the following total rainfall accumulations through Wednesday: Baja California and northwestern Sonora: 3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches. Central and Southern Arizona: 2 to 4 inches. Isolated 6 inch totals are possible in the mountains of Central Arizona. Rest of the Desert Southwest, Central Rockies, and Great Basin: 1 to 2 inches, isolated 4 inches. These rainfall amounts may produce life-threatening flash flooding. Dangerous debris flows and landslides are also possible in mountainous terrain. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area by later this morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by late this afternoon or tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Rosa will affect portions of the coasts of southwestern Mexico, most of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula, and southern California through Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 500 AM PDT. Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Rosa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 25
2018-10-01 10:38:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON OCT 01 2018 426 FOPZ15 KNHC 010838 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM ROSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018 0900 UTC MON OCT 01 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ROSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT YUMA AZ 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PUNTA EUGENIA 34 24 8(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) P ABREOJOS 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) P PENASCO 34 X 5( 5) 15(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Storm Rosa Forecast Advisory Number 25
2018-10-01 10:38:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON OCT 01 2018 244 WTPZ25 KNHC 010838 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM ROSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018 0900 UTC MON OCT 01 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS TO CABO SAN QUINTIN A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA DE LOS ANGELES TO SAN FELIPE INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ROSA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.7N 117.0W AT 01/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......110NE 130SE 50SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 120SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.7N 117.0W AT 01/0900Z AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.3N 117.3W FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 28.0N 116.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 30.1N 114.8W...INLAND NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 32.9N 113.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND SW ARIZONA MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 35.9N 112.2W...POST-TROP/INLAND NRN ARIZONA MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.7N 117.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Rosa Graphics
2018-10-01 07:46:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 01 Oct 2018 05:46:28 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 01 Oct 2018 02:34:58 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Rosa (EP5/EP202018)
2018-10-01 07:45:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES... ...FLOODING, DEBRIS FLOWS, AND LANDSLIDES POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE WESTERN UNITED STATES... As of 11:00 PM PDT Sun Sep 30 the center of Rosa was located near 26.5, -117.3 with movement NNE at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 991 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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