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Summary for Tropical Storm Rosa (EP5/EP202018)
2018-10-01 19:58:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ROSA BRINGING HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING TO PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, SONORA, AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES... As of 11:00 AM PDT Mon Oct 1 the center of Rosa was located near 27.9, -116.3 with movement NNE at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Rosa Public Advisory Number 26A
2018-10-01 19:58:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 AM PDT Mon Oct 01 2018 744 WTPZ35 KNHC 011758 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Rosa Intermediate Advisory Number 26A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018 1100 AM PDT Mon Oct 01 2018 ...ROSA BRINGING HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING TO PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, SONORA, AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.9N 116.3W ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM W OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO ABOUT 230 MI...375 KM SSW OF SAN FELIPE MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos to Cabo San Quintin A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Bahia de los Angeles to San Felipe Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of Rosa. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM PDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rosa was located near latitude 27.9 North, longitude 116.3 West. Rosa is moving toward the north-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Rosa will be near the coast of the Baja California peninsula within the warning later today and then move across the peninsula into the northern Gulf of California tonight. Rosa's remnants are then expected to move across the Desert Southwest on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Weakening is forecast through tonight while Rosa approaches and moves over the northern Baja California peninsula. Rosa is expected to become a remnant low over the southwestern United States on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Rosa is expected to produce the following total rainfall accumulations through Wednesday morning: Baja California and northwestern Sonora: 3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches. Central and Southern Arizona: 2 to 4 inches. Isolated 6 inch totals are possible in the mountains of Central Arizona. Rest of the Desert Southwest, Central Rockies, and Great Basin: 1 to 2 inches, isolated 4 inches. These rainfall amounts may produce life-threatening flash flooding. Dangerous debris flows and landslides are also possible in mountainous terrain. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are spreading over the coast in portions of the warning area. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by late this afternoon or tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Rosa will affect portions of the coasts of southwestern Mexico, most of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula, and southern California through Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Rosa Graphics
2018-10-01 19:58:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 01 Oct 2018 17:58:06 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 01 Oct 2018 15:34:06 GMT
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Tropical Storm Rosa Graphics
2018-10-01 16:34:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 01 Oct 2018 14:34:33 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 01 Oct 2018 15:34:06 GMT
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Tropical Storm Rosa Forecast Discussion Number 26
2018-10-01 16:32:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Mon Oct 01 2018 219 WTPZ45 KNHC 011432 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Rosa Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018 800 AM PDT Mon Oct 01 2018 Most of Rosa's deep convection has been sheared northeastward over portions of the Baja California peninsula, Sonora, and the southwestern United States. Locally heavy rains are already occurring over those areas. Assuming a gradual weakening of the cyclone since the last scatterometer overpass, and blending Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, gives a current intensity estimate of 40 kt. Since the cyclone will continue to be influenced by strong shear, cooler waters, and then interact with land, continued weakening is likely over the next day or so. Rosa is expected to degenerate into a remnant low by the time it reaches the southwestern United States on Tuesday. The system is moving north-northeastward, or 030/10 kt. Rosa should continue to be steered on that heading, to the east of a broad mid-level trough off the California coast. Some increase in forward speed is expected after Rosa's remnants move into the Desert Southwest. The official track forecast remains very close to the multi-model consensus. Key Messages: 1. The main hazard expected from Rosa or its remnants is very heavy rainfall in Baja California, northwestern Sonora, and the U.S. Desert Southwest. These rains are expected to produce life-threatening flash flooding and debris flows in the deserts, and landslides in mountainous terrain. For more information about potential rainfall in that area, please see products from the Weather Prediction Center and your local NWS forecast office. 2. Tropical storm conditions are affecting portions of the central and northern Baja California peninsula, especially over higher elevations. These conditions could spread into the northern Gulf of California later tonight. Interests in those locations should monitor the progress of Rosa. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 27.5N 116.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 28.9N 115.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 31.3N 114.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 34.3N 112.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 03/1200Z 37.0N 112.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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