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Tropical Storm Rosa Public Advisory Number 28
2018-10-02 04:42:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Mon Oct 01 2018 076 WTPZ35 KNHC 020242 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Rosa Advisory Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018 800 PM PDT Mon Oct 01 2018 ...CENTER OF ROSA PASSING NORTH OF ISLA CEDROS AND APPROACHING THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA... ...BRINGING FLOODING RAINS TO PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, SONORA, AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.9N 115.3W ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM N OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SSW OF SAN FELIPE MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos to Cabo San Quintin A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Bahia de los Angeles to San Felipe Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of Rosa. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rosa was located near latitude 28.9 North, longitude 115.3 West. Rosa is moving toward the northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed tonight and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Rosa will be near the coast of the Baja California peninsula within the warning area during the next few hours and then move across the peninsula into the northern Gulf of California. Rosa's remnants are then expected to move across the Desert Southwest on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast through tonight while Rosa approaches and moves over the northern Baja California peninsula. Rosa is expected to become a remnant low over the southwestern United States on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Rosa is expected to produce the following total rainfall accumulations through Wednesday morning: Baja California and northwestern Sonora: 3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches. On the forecast track, the center of Rosa will be near the coast of the Baja California peninsula within the warning area during the next several hours and then move across the peninsula into the northern Gulf of California later tonight. Rosa's remnants are then expected to move across the Desert Southwest on Tuesday. Central and Southern Arizona: 2 to 4 inches. Isolated 6 inch totals are possible in the mountains of Central Arizona. Rest of the Desert Southwest, Central Rockies, and Great Basin: 1 to 2 inches, isolated 4 inches. These rainfall amounts may produce life-threatening flash flooding. Dangerous debris flows and landslides are also possible in mountainous terrain. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely occuring over the coast in portions of the warning area. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area tonight and Tuesday morning. SURF: Swells generated by Rosa will affect portions of the coasts of southwestern Mexico, most of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula, and southern California through Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1100 PM PDT. Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Rosa Forecast Advisory Number 28
2018-10-02 04:41:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 02 2018 978 WTPZ25 KNHC 020241 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM ROSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018 0300 UTC TUE OCT 02 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS TO CABO SAN QUINTIN A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA DE LOS ANGELES TO SAN FELIPE INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ROSA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 115.3W AT 02/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 130SE 50SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 120SE 120SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 115.3W AT 02/0300Z AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 115.7W FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 30.8N 114.5W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 33.5N 113.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.9N 115.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm Rosa Graphics
2018-10-02 01:48:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 01 Oct 2018 23:48:09 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 01 Oct 2018 21:34:11 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Rosa (EP5/EP202018)
2018-10-02 01:47:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...CENTER OF ROSA NOW WEST-NORTHWEST OF PUNTA EUGENIA... ...BRINGING FLOODING RAINS TO PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, SONORA, AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES... As of 5:00 PM PDT Mon Oct 1 the center of Rosa was located near 28.2, -115.8 with movement NNE at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Rosa Public Advisory Number 27A
2018-10-02 01:47:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 PM PDT Mon Oct 01 2018 210 WTPZ35 KNHC 012347 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Rosa Intermediate Advisory Number 27A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018 500 PM PDT Mon Oct 01 2018 ...CENTER OF ROSA NOW WEST-NORTHWEST OF PUNTA EUGENIA... ...BRINGING FLOODING RAINS TO PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, SONORA, AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.2N 115.8W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM WNW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSW OF SAN FELIPE MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos to Cabo San Quintin A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Bahia de los Angeles to San Felipe Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of Rosa. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM PDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rosa was located near latitude 28.2 North, longitude 115.8 West. Rosa is moving toward the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Rosa will be near the coast of the Baja California peninsula within the warning area during the next several hours and then move across the peninsula into the northern Gulf of California later tonight. Rosa's remnants are then expected to move across the Desert Southwest on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast through tonight while Rosa approaches and moves over the northern Baja California peninsula. Rosa is expected to become a remnant low over the southwestern United States on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center. The Mexican automated station on Isla Cedros recently reported a wind gust of 45 mph (73 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Rosa is expected to produce the following total rainfall accumulations through Wednesday morning: Baja California and northwestern Sonora: 3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches. Central and Southern Arizona: 2 to 4 inches. Isolated 6 inch totals are possible in the mountains of Central Arizona. Rest of the Desert Southwest, Central Rockies, and Great Basin: 1 to 2 inches, isolated 4 inches. These rainfall amounts may produce life-threatening flash flooding. Dangerous debris flows and landslides are also possible in mountainous terrain. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely occuring over the coast in portions of the warning area. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by late this afternoon or tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Rosa will affect portions of the coasts of southwestern Mexico, most of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula, and southern California through Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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