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Tropical Storm Rosa Graphics
2018-09-25 16:39:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 25 Sep 2018 14:39:30 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 25 Sep 2018 15:28:10 GMT
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Tropical Storm Rosa Forecast Discussion Number 2
2018-09-25 16:34:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Tue Sep 25 2018 060 WTPZ45 KNHC 251434 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Rosa Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018 900 AM MDT Tue Sep 25 2018 The cloud pattern of the tropical cyclone has become better organized, with developing convective banding features. Dvorak intensity estimates are 35 kt and 45 kt from SAB and TAFB, respectively, and the current intensity estimate is set at 40 kt. Thus the system is being upgraded to a tropical storm. Conditions favor continued strengthening, with Rosa likely to remain in an environment of warm waters, low shear, and a very moist mid-level air mass for the next several days. The official intensity forecast is a little higher than the previous one, but below some of the objective guidance. By late in the forecast period, a gradual weakening trend should commence as the system begins to move over slightly cooler waters. The storm is moving west-northwestward, or 285/8 kt. A mid-level ridge is forecast by the global models to remain in place to the north of Rosa through the middle part of the forecast period. This would likely maintain a generally west-northwestward motion for the next 72 hours or so. By days 4-5, the ridge is predicted to weaken which should result in a gradual turn toward the northwest and north-northwest. The official track forecast is similar to that from the previous advisory and is close to the corrected dynamical model consensus, HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 14.7N 108.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 15.2N 109.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 26/1200Z 15.8N 110.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 27/0000Z 16.1N 112.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 27/1200Z 16.4N 113.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 28/1200Z 17.1N 116.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 29/1200Z 18.8N 118.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 30/1200Z 21.0N 120.0W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Rosa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2018-09-25 16:34:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 25 2018 790 FOPZ15 KNHC 251434 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM ROSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018 1500 UTC TUE SEP 25 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ROSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 110W 34 28 42(70) 2(72) 1(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) 15N 110W 50 1 21(22) X(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) 15N 110W 64 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 110W 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 5( 5) 7(12) 5(17) 3(20) X(20) X(20) ISLA CLARION 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 21(27) 34(61) 2(63) 1(64) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) 1(18) X(18) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 15N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 24(31) 22(53) 4(57) X(57) 15N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) X(16) X(16) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 14(21) 7(28) 3(31) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) 2(18) 15N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 37(41) 26(67) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 20(33) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10(16) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Summary for Tropical Storm Rosa (EP5/EP202018)
2018-09-25 16:34:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO A TROPICAL STORM... As of 9:00 AM MDT Tue Sep 25 the center of Rosa was located near 14.7, -108.0 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Rosa Public Advisory Number 2
2018-09-25 16:34:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Tue Sep 25 2018 738 WTPZ35 KNHC 251434 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Rosa Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018 900 AM MDT Tue Sep 25 2018 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO A TROPICAL STORM... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.7N 108.0W ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rosa was located near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 108.0 West. Rosa is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is likely, and Rosa could become a hurricane on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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