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Summary for Hurricane Rosa (EP5/EP202018)
2018-09-26 16:37:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ROSA BECOMES THE TENTH HURRICANE OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC SEASON... As of 9:00 AM MDT Wed Sep 26 the center of Rosa was located near 16.1, -111.4 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
Hurricane Rosa Public Advisory Number 6
2018-09-26 16:37:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Wed Sep 26 2018 443 WTPZ35 KNHC 261437 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Rosa Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018 900 AM MDT Wed Sep 26 2018 ...ROSA BECOMES THE TENTH HURRICANE OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC SEASON... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.1N 111.4W ABOUT 510 MI...820 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rosa was located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 111.4 West. Rosa is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue for the next two days. A turn to the northwest is expected by Saturday morning. Maximum sustained winds have quickly increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts, and rapid strengthening is forecast to continue through tonight. Afterward, strengthening should continue at a slower rate through Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Rosa will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and the southern Baja California Peninsula late this week and over the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Rosa Graphics
2018-09-26 10:46:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 26 Sep 2018 08:46:46 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 26 Sep 2018 08:46:46 GMT
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Tropical Storm Rosa Forecast Discussion Number 5
2018-09-26 10:45:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Wed Sep 26 2018 934 WTPZ45 KNHC 260845 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Rosa Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018 300 AM MDT Wed Sep 26 2018 After steadily intensifying yesterday, Rosa's strengthening trend has temporarily paused. The tropical storm has a well-defined curved band that wraps about three-quarters of the way around the center. However, some dry air appears to be intruding into the core from the northeastern quadrant, which could be the reason why Rosa has stopped strengthening for now. The Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB remain 3.5/55 kt, so the initial intensity is held at that value. This wind speed is also close to the latest SATCON estimate from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin. A strengthening trend is expected to resume soon, and it seems likely that Rosa will rapidly intensify during the next couple of days while it remains over warm SSTs and in an environment of low wind shear of 10 kt or less. The NHC intensity forecast closely follows the HCCA model, and brings Rosa to hurricane strength later today and major hurricane strength on Thursday. Beyond a few days, steady weakening is forecast due to cooler SSTs, dry and stable air, and an increase in southwesterly wind shear. The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward at 7 kt, steered by a mid-level ridge to its north. A west to west-northwest motion at about the same forward speed is expected for the next couple of days as the pattern holds. After that time, the ridge is expected to break down as a large, deep-layer low moves toward the U.S. west coast. This change in the steering flow should cause Rosa to move northwestward late Friday and Saturday and then northward late in the weekend. The models have come into a little better agreement this cycle, and a slight eastward shift has been made at 96- and 120-hours based on this guidance. This forecast lies fairly close to the various consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0900Z 15.5N 110.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 15.9N 111.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 27/0600Z 16.2N 113.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 27/1800Z 16.5N 115.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 28/0600Z 16.8N 116.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 29/0600Z 18.3N 119.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 30/0600Z 20.7N 120.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 01/0600Z 23.0N 120.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Rosa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2018-09-26 10:42:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 26 2018 412 FOPZ15 KNHC 260842 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM ROSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018 0900 UTC WED SEP 26 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ROSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT IS GUADALUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15N 110W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 110W 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLA CLARION 34 X 4( 4) 26(30) 8(38) 4(42) 1(43) X(43) ISLA CLARION 50 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 115W 34 1 10(11) 38(49) 7(56) 2(58) 1(59) X(59) 15N 115W 50 X 1( 1) 10(11) 6(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) 7(16) 2(18) 1(19) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 13(19) 4(23) X(23) 15N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 38(41) 31(72) 4(76) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 27(40) 3(43) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) 2(23) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 19(28) 25N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 25N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 4(12) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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