je.st
news
Tag: rosa
Hurricane Rosa Forecast Advisory Number 8
2018-09-27 04:35:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 27 2018 883 WTPZ25 KNHC 270235 TCMEP5 HURRICANE ROSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018 0300 UTC THU SEP 27 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 113.1W AT 27/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 120SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 113.1W AT 27/0300Z AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 112.6W FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 17.0N 114.6W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 17.1N 116.2W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 110SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 17.6N 117.4W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 18.4N 118.2W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 21.2N 119.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 24.6N 118.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 28.0N 116.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 113.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Tags: number
rosa
advisory
forecast
Hurricane Rosa Forecast Discussion Number 8
2018-09-27 04:35:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Wed Sep 26 2018 884 WTPZ45 KNHC 270235 TCDEP5 Hurricane Rosa Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018 900 PM MDT Wed Sep 26 2018 During the past several hours, the convective pattern of Rosa has become more symmetric, and perhaps an eye is trying to emerge in the last few satellite images. Overall, Rosa appears somewhat stronger than the past advisory, so the initial wind speed is slightly raised to 75 kt- near the TAFB Dvorak estimate and the CIMSS ADT. The hurricane has been steadily strengthening over the past day, and, with conducive atmospheric and oceanic conditions in the forecast for the next couple of days, this trend should continue. A more rapid intensification period is possible if the inner core becomes better defined. Curiously, the intensity guidance has come in lower than the last cycle, despite no obvious inhibiting factors from all of the global models. I'd rather keep the high forecast of my predecessor until the reasons for this lower peak intensity become clear. In addition, the corrected-consensus guidance is higher than the rest of the aids, supporting the stronger forecast. By day 3 weakening should commence as Rosa moves over cooler waters, and rapid weakening is possible by the end of the forecast while the cyclone encounters high shear over quite cool waters. Rosa has turned westward, now moving at about 10 kt. A mid-level high over the southwestern United States should steer the hurricane on this general course for the next day or so. After that time, the high shifts eastward due to a series of troughs approaching the west coast of the United States, causing Rosa to gradually turn toward the northwest by Friday, north on Saturday and to the northeast by Monday. There are still some pretty large speed differences in the models at long range, with the GFS-based guidance a lot faster than the ECMWF or UKMET models and their ensembles. There are no obvious reasons to favor either solution at this time, so the track forecast will stay close to the dynamical model consensus and the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 16.9N 113.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 17.0N 114.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 17.1N 116.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 28/1200Z 17.6N 117.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 29/0000Z 18.4N 118.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 30/0000Z 21.2N 119.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 01/0000Z 24.6N 118.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 02/0000Z 28.0N 116.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
Tags: number
discussion
rosa
forecast
Hurricane Rosa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2018-09-27 04:35:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 27 2018 845 FOPZ15 KNHC 270235 PWSEP5 HURRICANE ROSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018 0300 UTC THU SEP 27 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ROSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ENSENADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) IS GUADALUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) IS GUADALUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) PUNTA EUGENIA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) PUNTA EUGENIA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ISLA CLARION 34 48 17(65) 2(67) 1(68) 2(70) X(70) X(70) ISLA CLARION 50 2 3( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 115W 34 3 8(11) 3(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) 20N 115W 34 1 3( 4) 5( 9) 5(14) 7(21) 3(24) X(24) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 8(22) 25N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 25N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 15N 120W 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) 20N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 17(22) 51(73) 4(77) X(77) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 34(38) 3(41) X(41) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 3(22) X(22) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 35(42) 7(49) 25N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 4(17) 25N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) 30N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Summary for Hurricane Rosa (EP5/EP202018)
2018-09-27 04:34:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ROSA STILL STRENGTHENING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN... As of 9:00 PM MDT Wed Sep 26 the center of Rosa was located near 16.9, -113.1 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 982 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
Hurricane Rosa Public Advisory Number 8
2018-09-27 04:34:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Wed Sep 26 2018 238 WTPZ35 KNHC 270234 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Rosa Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018 900 PM MDT Wed Sep 26 2018 ...ROSA STILL STRENGTHENING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.9N 113.1W ABOUT 595 MI...960 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 465 MI...745 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rosa was located near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 113.1 West. Rosa is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue through Thursday, with a slower motion toward the west-northwest on Friday and northwest on Saturday anticipated. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Rosa is forecast to become a major hurricane by late Thursday, with further strengthening possible through Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Rosa will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and the southern Baja California Peninsula late this week and over the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
Tags: number
public
rosa
advisory
Sites : [26] [27] [28] [29] [30] [31] [32] [33] [34] [35] [36] [37] [38] [39] [40] [41] [42] [43] [44] [45] next »