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Summary for Tropical Storm Rosa (EP5/EP202018)

2018-09-26 04:39:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...ROSA QUICKLY STRENGTHENING... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE OVERNIGHT... As of 9:00 PM MDT Tue Sep 25 the center of Rosa was located near 15.1, -109.7 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

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Tropical Storm Rosa Public Advisory Number 4

2018-09-26 04:39:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 PM MDT Tue Sep 25 2018 061 WTPZ35 KNHC 260239 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Rosa Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018 900 PM MDT Tue Sep 25 2018 ...ROSA QUICKLY STRENGTHENING... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE OVERNIGHT... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.1N 109.7W ABOUT 445 MI...720 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rosa was located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 109.7 West. Rosa is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next several days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is anticipated, and Rosa is forecast to become a hurricane overnight and could become a major hurricane by Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Rosa will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and the southern Baja California Peninsula later this week into the upcoming weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

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Tropical Storm Rosa Forecast Advisory Number 4

2018-09-26 04:39:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 26 2018 062 WTPZ25 KNHC 260239 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM ROSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018 0300 UTC WED SEP 26 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 109.7W AT 26/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 75SE 30SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 109.7W AT 26/0300Z AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 109.3W FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 15.5N 110.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 16.0N 112.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 16.3N 114.1W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 16.6N 115.8W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 17.8N 119.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 110SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 20.0N 120.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 22.0N 121.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 109.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

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Tropical Storm Rosa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4

2018-09-26 04:39:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 26 2018 081 FOPZ15 KNHC 260239 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM ROSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018 0300 UTC WED SEP 26 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ROSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 110W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 110W 50 63 1(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) 15N 110W 64 21 1(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) 20N 110W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 4( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ISLA CLARION 34 1 3( 4) 22(26) 17(43) 7(50) X(50) 1(51) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 15N 115W 34 1 7( 8) 37(45) 16(61) 5(66) X(66) 1(67) 15N 115W 50 X 1( 1) 9(10) 12(22) 4(26) X(26) X(26) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) 20N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 7(16) 4(20) 1(21) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 19(22) 7(29) 2(31) 15N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 27(29) 34(63) 6(69) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 23(31) 6(37) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) 3(20) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 12(18) 25N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 25N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 7(16) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

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