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Hurricane Rosa Forecast Advisory Number 11

2018-09-27 22:48:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 27 2018 370 WTPZ25 KNHC 272048 TCMEP5 HURRICANE ROSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018 2100 UTC THU SEP 27 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 115.9W AT 27/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 953 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT.......100NE 70SE 60SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 150SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 115.9W AT 27/2100Z AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 115.5W FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 17.0N 117.0W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 17.5N 118.1W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 110SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 18.4N 118.7W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 19.8N 119.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 23.5N 119.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 26.5N 117.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 31.0N 114.0W...OVER GULF OF CALIFORNIA MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 115.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Hurricane Rosa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11

2018-09-27 22:48:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 27 2018 369 FOPZ15 KNHC 272048 PWSEP5 HURRICANE ROSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018 2100 UTC THU SEP 27 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ROSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SAN DIEGO CA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) YUMA AZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) TIJUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ENSENADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) IS GUADALUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 8(20) IS GUADALUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) IS GUADALUPE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 16(34) PUNTA EUGENIA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) PUNTA EUGENIA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 8(20) P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) P PENASCO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) ISLA CLARION 34 3 2( 5) 2( 7) 3(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) 15N 115W 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 115W 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 5(10) 5(15) 1(16) X(16) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 19(27) 3(30) 25N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) 25N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 15N 120W 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 120W 34 1 2( 3) 27(30) 45(75) 9(84) X(84) X(84) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 31(34) 12(46) X(46) X(46) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 11(25) X(25) X(25) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 35(36) 19(55) X(55) 25N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 13(21) 1(22) 25N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) 30N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Hurricane Rosa Graphics

2018-09-27 17:10:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 27 Sep 2018 15:10:44 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 27 Sep 2018 15:10:44 GMT

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Hurricane Rosa Forecast Discussion Number 10

2018-09-27 16:54:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT Thu Sep 27 2018 697 WTPZ45 KNHC 271454 TCDEP5 Hurricane Rosa Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018 800 AM PDT Thu Sep 27 2018 Rosa is becoming better organized. Conventional satellite imagery show a large area of cold cloud tops near the center, and there is a hint of an eye in the first-light visible images. Microwave imagery indicates that the eye structure underneath the overcast has become better defined, with less evidence of dry air entrainment than seen yesterday. The initial intensity has been increased to 90 kt in best agreement with the subjective Dvorak estimate from TAFB and the CIMSS ADT technique. The hurricane currently has good outflow in all directions. Conditions appear generally favorable for continued strengthening for the next 24-36 hr, and the new intensity forecast now makes Rosa a major hurricane in 12 h. It should be noted that if the current strengthening is the start of the previously anticipated rapid intensification Rosa could get stronger than the current forecast, which shows a peak intensity of 105 kt near the upper edge of the intensity guidance. After 36 h, the forecast track takes the cyclone over decreasing sea surface temperatures, and by the end of the forecast period it is expected to encounter strong southwesterly vertical shear. This combination should cause significant weakening, and Rosa is expected to be a tropical storm as it approaches the Baja California peninsula near the end of the forecast period. The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 270/10. For the next 12-24 h, the hurricane should move generally westward on the south side of the subtropical ridge over the Pacific west of northern Mexico and a mid-latitude ridge over California. Subsequently, Rosa should turn northwestward and northward through a break in the ridge caused by a large mid-latitude trough moving eastward through the northeastern Pacific. By 96-120 h, Rosa should recurve northeastward into the westerlies on the eastern side of the trough and move in the general direction of northwestern Mexico and the northern Baja California peninsula. There remains some spread in the guidance forward speed after recurvature, with the GFS being faster than the ECMWF. The new intensity forecast is a blend of these extremes in forward speed at the 96 and 120 h points. Overall, the guidance envelope has shifted a little west since the previous advisory, and the new track is also shifted a little westward. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 17.2N 115.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 17.3N 116.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 17.5N 118.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 18.3N 119.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 29/1200Z 19.5N 119.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 30/1200Z 22.5N 119.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 01/1200Z 26.0N 118.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 02/1200Z 29.5N 115.5W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven

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Summary for Hurricane Rosa (EP5/EP202018)

2018-09-27 16:53:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...ROSA STRENGTHENING AND FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT... As of 8:00 AM PDT Thu Sep 27 the center of Rosa was located near 17.2, -115.4 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 970 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.

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