je.st
news
Tag: rosa
Hurricane Rosa Public Advisory Number 10
2018-09-27 16:53:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Thu Sep 27 2018 965 WTPZ35 KNHC 271453 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Rosa Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018 800 AM PDT Thu Sep 27 2018 ...ROSA STRENGTHENING AND FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.2N 115.4W ABOUT 530 MI...855 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rosa was located near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 115.4 West. Rosa is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue through tonight, with a slower motion toward the west-northwest on Friday and toward the northwest Friday night and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast through Friday, and Rosa is expected to become a major hurricane later today or tonight. The hurricane is expected to begin weakening on Saturday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The Mexican Navy automated station on Clarion Island recently reported sustained winds of 44 mph (71 km/h) and a wind gust of 57 mph (91 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Rosa will affect portions of the coasts of southwestern Mexico, the southern Baja California Peninsula, and southern California late this week and over the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
Tags: number
public
rosa
advisory
Hurricane Rosa Forecast Advisory Number 10
2018-09-27 16:53:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 27 2018 964 WTPZ25 KNHC 271453 TCMEP5 HURRICANE ROSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018 1500 UTC THU SEP 27 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 115.4W AT 27/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 150SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 115.4W AT 27/1500Z AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 115.0W FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 17.3N 116.9W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 17.5N 118.1W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 110SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 18.3N 119.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 19.5N 119.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 22.5N 119.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 26.0N 118.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 29.5N 115.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 115.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tags: number
rosa
advisory
forecast
Hurricane Rosa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2018-09-27 16:53:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 27 2018 941 FOPZ15 KNHC 271453 PWSEP5 HURRICANE ROSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018 1500 UTC THU SEP 27 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ROSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SAN DIEGO CA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) TIJUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ENSENADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) IS GUADALUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 10(19) IS GUADALUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 13(23) PUNTA EUGENIA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) P PENASCO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 115W 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 115W 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 4( 9) 5(14) 1(15) X(15) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) 4(20) 25N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 15N 120W 34 1 2( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) 20N 120W 34 1 2( 3) 27(30) 47(77) 13(90) 1(91) X(91) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 34(38) 23(61) 1(62) X(62) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 19(38) X(38) X(38) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 32(52) 1(53) 25N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 1(19) 25N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) 30N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Hurricane Rosa Graphics
2018-09-27 10:41:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 27 Sep 2018 08:41:50 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 27 Sep 2018 08:41:50 GMT
Tags: graphics
rosa
hurricane
hurricane graphics
Hurricane Rosa Forecast Discussion Number 9
2018-09-27 10:40:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Thu Sep 27 2018 748 WTPZ45 KNHC 270839 TCDEP5 Hurricane Rosa Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018 300 AM MDT Thu Sep 27 2018 The cloud pattern is a little more impressive with plenty of deep convection and a well-defined cyclonically-curved band south of the center. There is no evidence of an eye yet in conventional IR imagery. Satellite intensity estimates from all agencies, however, are unanimously 4.5 on the Dvorak scale, so the intensity is kept at 75 kt. Both atmospheric and oceanic conditions are favorable for intensification with the possibility of rapid strengthening within the next 12 to 24 hours, although intensity guidance is not as aggressive as in earlier runs. The NHC forecast follows closely the intensity consensus and is very similar to the previous one. Beyond 3 days, Rosa should be over cooler waters, and by the time it reaches the northern Baja California peninsula, the cyclone should have weakened to a tropical storm. Rosa is moving westward or 270 degrees at 10 kt steered by the deep easterly flow around a subtropical ridge. Rosa will soon reach the southwestern edge of the high and will begin to move toward the northwest and northward as an eastward moving mid-level trough erodes the high to the north. Rosa should then turn toward the northeast ahead of the trough by the end of the forecast period. This is the solution provided by most of the track models which all turn the cyclone northward and then northeastward. The NHC forecast is in the middle of the guidance envelope and is in between the corrected consensus HCCA and the multi-model aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 17.1N 114.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 17.2N 115.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 28/0600Z 17.5N 117.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 28/1800Z 17.8N 118.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 29/0600Z 18.8N 118.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 30/0600Z 22.0N 119.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 01/0600Z 25.5N 118.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 02/0600Z 29.0N 116.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
Tags: number
discussion
rosa
forecast
Sites : [24] [25] [26] [27] [28] [29] [30] [31] [32] [33] [34] [35] [36] [37] [38] [39] [40] [41] [42] [43] next »