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Hurricane Rosa Forecast Advisory Number 12
2018-09-28 04:58:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 28 2018 764 WTPZ25 KNHC 280258 TCMEP5 HURRICANE ROSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018 0300 UTC FRI SEP 28 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 116.7W AT 28/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 940 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT. 64 KT....... 35NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......110NE 80SE 70SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 180SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 116.7W AT 28/0300Z AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 116.4W FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 17.1N 117.7W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 17.8N 118.4W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 19.0N 118.8W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 130SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 20.9N 118.8W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 130SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 25.0N 118.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 29.0N 115.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 36.0N 110.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 116.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Hurricane Rosa Graphics
2018-09-27 22:51:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 27 Sep 2018 20:51:17 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 27 Sep 2018 21:28:27 GMT
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Hurricane Rosa Forecast Discussion Number 11
2018-09-27 22:49:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Thu Sep 27 2018 742 WTPZ45 KNHC 272049 TCDEP5 Hurricane Rosa Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018 200 PM PDT Thu Sep 27 2018 Rosa is undergoing rapid intensification, accompanied by the formation of a well-defined 15 n mi wide eye inside the central dense overcast. Recent subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are generally in the 100-115 kt range, and the initial intensity is increased to 110 kt in best agreement with the CIMSS ADT and the subjective Dvorak estimate from TAFB. Rosa continues to have good cirrus outflow in all directions. The intensity forecast has some complexities. The first is how much more Rosa will strengthen before the rapid intensification stops. The new intensity forecast follows the upper edge of the guidance in showing about 12 h more strengthening with a peak intensity of 120 kt. That being said, it would not be surprising if Rosa got stronger than that. The simplest part of the forecast is from 24-72 h, when the sea surface temperatures cool along the forecast track with Rosa gradually weakening as a result. After 72 h, the cyclone should move across the quite cold waters of the northeastern Pacific, and then move across Baja California over the warm water of the Gulf of California. While that is happening, a mid-latitude trough to the northwest is expected to cause both strong shear and strong upper-level divergence over Rosa. The intensity guidance responds to this combination of ingredients with intensity forecasts of anywhere between 30-65 kt as Rosa makes landfall on the Baja California peninsula. The new intensity forecast continues to call for Rosa to weaken to a tropical storm before reaching Baja California. However, this should be considered to be a low confidence forecast at this time. Rosa is farther south than estimated in the previous advisory, and the new initial motion is now 265/9. Other than that, there is no change in the forecast philosophy from the previous forecast. For the next 12 h or so, the hurricane should move generally westward on the south side of the subtropical ridge over the Pacific west of northern Mexico and a mid-latitude ridge over California. Subsequently, Rosa should turn northwestward and northward through a break in the ridge caused by the aforementioned large mid-latitude trough moving eastward through the northeastern Pacific. By 96-120 h, Rosa should recurve northeastward into the westerlies on the eastern side of the trough and move in the general direction of the northern Baja California peninsula and northwestern Mexico. The dynamical models show spread in both direction and speed as Rosa approaches Baja. The ECMWF and the Canadian models are on the left side of the envelope in forecasting landfall on the northern part of the peninsula, while the GFS and the HWRF are on the right side with a landfall closer to the central part of the peninsula. The new forecast track lies between those extremes near the center of the guidance envelope and the consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 16.9N 115.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 28/0600Z 17.0N 117.0W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 28/1800Z 17.5N 118.1W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 29/0600Z 18.4N 118.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 29/1800Z 19.8N 119.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 30/1800Z 23.5N 119.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 01/1800Z 26.5N 117.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 02/1800Z 31.0N 114.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Hurricane Rosa (EP5/EP202018)
2018-09-27 22:48:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ROSA RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE... As of 2:00 PM PDT Thu Sep 27 the center of Rosa was located near 16.9, -115.9 with movement W at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 953 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.
Hurricane Rosa Public Advisory Number 11
2018-09-27 22:48:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Thu Sep 27 2018 371 WTPZ35 KNHC 272048 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Rosa Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018 200 PM PDT Thu Sep 27 2018 ...ROSA RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.9N 115.9W ABOUT 570 MI...915 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rosa was located near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 115.9 West. Rosa is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue tonight. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected on Friday, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Saturday and a turn toward the north on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Rosa is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is expected tonight. Fluctuations in strength are possible Friday and Friday night, with weakening expected on Saturday and Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The Mexican Navy automated station on Clarion Island recently reported sustained winds of 38 mph (61 km/h) and a wind gust of 53 mph (85 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 953 mb (28.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Rosa will affect portions of the coasts of southwestern Mexico, the southern Baja California Peninsula, and southern California late this week and over the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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