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Hurricane Rosa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9

2018-09-27 10:39:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 27 2018 591 FOPZ15 KNHC 270839 PWSEP5 HURRICANE ROSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018 0900 UTC THU SEP 27 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ROSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SAN DIEGO CA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ENSENADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) IS GUADALUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 12(18) IS GUADALUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 14(22) PUNTA EUGENIA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) ISLA CLARION 34 65 1(66) 1(67) 1(68) 2(70) X(70) X(70) ISLA CLARION 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 115W 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 115W 34 2 3( 5) 3( 8) 4(12) 8(20) 2(22) X(22) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) 4(23) 25N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) 25N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 15N 120W 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) 20N 120W 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 38(46) 34(80) 2(82) X(82) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 35(45) 1(46) X(46) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 22(25) X(25) X(25) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 30(42) 3(45) 25N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 2(15) 25N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) 30N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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Summary for Hurricane Rosa (EP5/EP202018)

2018-09-27 10:39:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...ROSA FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR FRIDAY... As of 3:00 AM MDT Thu Sep 27 the center of Rosa was located near 17.1, -114.1 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 981 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

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Hurricane Rosa Public Advisory Number 9

2018-09-27 10:39:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 300 AM MDT Thu Sep 27 2018 576 WTPZ35 KNHC 270839 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Rosa Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018 300 AM MDT Thu Sep 27 2018 ...ROSA FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.1N 114.1W ABOUT 630 MI...1015 KM WSW OF PUERTO VALLARTA MEXICO ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rosa was located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 114.1 West. Rosa is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue today with a slower motion toward the west-northwest on Friday and toward the northwest on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Rosa is forecast to become a major hurricane later today or early Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Rosa will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and the southern Baja California Peninsula late this week and over the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Avila

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Hurricane Rosa Forecast Advisory Number 9

2018-09-27 10:39:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 27 2018 189 WTPZ25 KNHC 270838 TCMEP5 HURRICANE ROSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018 0900 UTC THU SEP 27 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 114.1W AT 27/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 150SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 114.1W AT 27/0900Z AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 113.6W FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 17.2N 115.6W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 17.5N 117.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 110SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 17.8N 118.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 18.8N 118.8W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 22.0N 119.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 25.5N 118.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 29.0N 116.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 114.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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