je.st
news
Tag: patricia
Hurricane PATRICIA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2015-10-23 10:33:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI OCT 23 2015 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 230833 PWSEP5 HURRICANE PATRICIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015 0900 UTC FRI OCT 23 2015 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PATRICIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 175 KTS...200 MPH...325 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MAZATLAN 34 X 13(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) SAN BLAS 34 4 87(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) SAN BLAS 50 X 29(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) SAN BLAS 64 X 11(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) P VALLARTA 34 61 38(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) P VALLARTA 50 1 74(75) 1(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) P VALLARTA 64 X 46(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 99 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 41 41(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 6 44(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) MANZANILLO 34 97 2(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MANZANILLO 50 12 33(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) MANZANILLO 64 1 13(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) L CARDENAS 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 4 47(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Tags: number
speed
wind
patricia
Hurricane PATRICIA Forecast Advisory Number 14
2015-10-23 10:33:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI OCT 23 2015 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 230833 TCMEP5 HURRICANE PATRICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015 0900 UTC FRI OCT 23 2015 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAN BLAS TO PUNTA SAN TELMO A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO LAZARO CARDENAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO LAZARO CARDENAS A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN ABOUT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 105.5W AT 23/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 880 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 175 KT WITH GUSTS TO 215 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT.......150NE 100SE 60SW 130NW. 12 FT SEAS..135NE 240SE 180SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 105.5W AT 23/0900Z AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 105.4W FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 18.8N 105.4W MAX WIND 180 KT...GUSTS 220 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 21.7N 104.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 24.5N 102.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 105.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Tags: number
advisory
patricia
forecast
Hurricane PATRICIA Graphics
2015-10-23 07:32:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 23 Oct 2015 05:32:25 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 23 Oct 2015 05:31:47 GMT
Tags: graphics
patricia
hurricane
hurricane graphics
Hurricane PATRICIA Forecast Discussion Number 13
2015-10-23 07:31:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 230531 TCDEP5 HURRICANE PATRICIA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015 1230 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015 The purpose of this special advisory is to update for a significant increase in the intensity of the hurricane. Reports from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate that Patricia has intensified at an incredible rate since yesterday. The plane measured peak 700-mb flight level winds of 179 kt in the northeastern eyewall, and this may be an unprecedented value for a tropical cyclone. Using the 90 percent adjustment value to convert this to a surface wind speed yields an intensity estimate of 160 kt, which is tied with eastern north Pacific Hurricane Linda of 1997 for the strongest on record. A dropsonde released into the eye measured a sea-level pressure of 894 mb with 25 kt of wind. Adjusting this pressure for the surface winds (i.e. the drop did not land into the actual center of the eye) gives an estimated minimum central pressure of 892 mb, which breaks the record for the lowest pressure of an east Pacific hurricane. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely today due to eyewall replacements, but Patricia should maintain category 5 status through landfall this afternoon or evening. No changes are made to the track forecast from the previous advisory. This special advisory replaces the 0600 UTC intermediate advisory for Patricia. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Confidence is high that Patricia will make landfall in the hurricane warning area along the coast of Mexico as an extremely dangerous major hurricane this afternoon or evening. Preparations to protect life and property in the hurricane warning area should be completed as tropical storm conditions are beginning to affect the area. 2. In addition to the coastal impacts, very heavy rainfall is likely to cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides in the Mexican states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero continuing into Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0530Z 16.5N 105.3W 160 KT 185 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 17.4N 105.7W 160 KT 185 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 19.7N 105.3W 160 KT 185 MPH...INLAND 36H 24/1200Z 22.5N 103.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 48H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
Tags: number
discussion
patricia
forecast
Hurricane PATRICIA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2015-10-23 07:31:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0530 UTC FRI OCT 23 2015 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 230531 PWSEP5 HURRICANE PATRICIA SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015 0530 UTC FRI OCT 23 2015 AT 0530Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PATRICIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 160 KTS...185 MPH...295 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MAZATLAN 34 X 3( 3) 13(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN BLAS 34 X 46(46) 36(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) SAN BLAS 50 X 5( 5) 36(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) SAN BLAS 64 X 1( 1) 20(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) P VALLARTA 34 1 87(88) 8(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) P VALLARTA 50 X 37(37) 36(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) P VALLARTA 64 X 17(17) 32(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 30 67(97) 1(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X 62(62) 6(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X 33(33) 7(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) MANZANILLO 34 23 67(90) 1(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) MANZANILLO 50 X 35(35) 6(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) MANZANILLO 64 X 15(15) 5(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) L CARDENAS 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 31(31) 16(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X 3( 3) 7(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Tags: number
speed
wind
patricia
Sites : [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] next »