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Summary for Hurricane PATRICIA (EP5/EP202015)
2015-10-23 01:47:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE PATRICIA WITH 150-MPH WINDS HEADED FOR SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 7:00 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 the center of PATRICIA was located near 15.8, -104.8 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 934 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 150 mph.
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Hurricane PATRICIA Public Advisory Number 11A
2015-10-23 01:47:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 700 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 222347 TCPEP5 BULLETIN HURRICANE PATRICIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015 700 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE PATRICIA WITH 150-MPH WINDS HEADED FOR SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.8N 104.8W ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 325 MI...520 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...934 MB...27.58 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * San Blas to Punta San Telmo A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * East of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within about 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Patricia was located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 104.8 West. Patricia is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected by early Friday, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast Friday night. On the forecast track, the core of Patricia will make landfall in the hurricane warning area Friday afternoon or evening. Satellite images indicate that Patricia has continued to intensify and maximum sustained winds have reached near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts. Patricia is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Patricia could become a category 5 hurricane overnight, and is expected to remain an extremely dangerous hurricane through landfall. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 934 mb (27.58 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to first reach the hurricane warning area Friday afternoon or evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the warning areas by late tonight or early Friday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion today. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area late Friday. RAINFALL: Patricia is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches, over the Mexican states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero later today into Saturday. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the right of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Patricia are already affecting portions of the southern coast of Mexico, and will spread northwestward during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane PATRICIA Graphics
2015-10-22 22:51:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 22 Oct 2015 20:33:29 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 22 Oct 2015 20:50:49 GMT
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Hurricane PATRICIA Forecast Discussion Number 11
2015-10-22 22:34:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 222034 TCDEP5 HURRICANE PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015 400 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015 Patricia has an impressive satellite presentation, with a small 10 n mi wide eye surrounded by convective cloud tops of -80C to -90C. The NOAA Hurricane Hunter Aircraft found that the pressure had fallen to about 953 mb on their final pass through the center, after indicating earlier that the intensity had increased to 115 kt, which remains the intensity for this advisory. Further strengthening is indicated by much of the intensity guidance given that the shear remains low and the hurricane is over SSTs of 30-31C. The official forecast shows the cyclone peaking at 135 kt in 12 hours, followed by a little weakening prior to landfall as the shear increases, and this is close to the latest intensity consensus aids. Patricia could also undergo an eyewall replacement cycle before landfall that could result in fluctuations in intensity not shown here. After landfall, the hurricane should quickly weaken over the high terrain and dissipate by 72 hours. The hurricane has begun turning a bit more poleward and slowed down during the past few hours, with an initial motion estimate of 300/11. The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged, with Patricia expected to turn northwestward and then northward during the next 24 hours as it moves around the periphery of a mid-level high centered over the Gulf of Mexico. The hurricane is then forecast to accelerate north-northeastward between the high and an amplifying trough over northwestern Mexico. The new NHC track is again a bit to the left of the previous one and is close to the new GFS/ECMWF consensus along on the western side of the guidance envelope. Based on the latest forecast, the government of Mexico has extended the hurricane warning north of Cabo Corrientes to San Blas, which includes the Puerto Vallarta area. Model guidance continues to suggest that the mid-level remnants and moisture from Patricia will be absorbed by a non-tropical area of low pressure that forms over south Texas or the northwestern Gulf of Mexico this weekend. This moisture could contribute to a major rainfall event already ongoing across portions of Texas. For more information, please refer to products from your local National Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Confidence is increasing that Patricia will make landfall in the hurricane warning area along the coast of Mexico as an extremely dangerous major hurricane Friday afternoon or evening. Preparations to protect life and property in the hurricane warning area should be completed today, as tropical storm conditions will begin to affect the warning area tonight or early Friday. 2. In addition to the coastal impacts, very heavy rainfall is likely to cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides in the Mexican states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero beginning late tonight and continuing into Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 15.4N 104.6W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 16.5N 105.6W 135 KT 155 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 18.1N 105.9W 130 KT 150 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 20.6N 104.9W 100 KT 115 MPH...INLAND 48H 24/1800Z 23.3N 102.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 72H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Hurricane PATRICIA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2015-10-22 22:34:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU OCT 22 2015 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 222034 PWSEP5 HURRICANE PATRICIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015 2100 UTC THU OCT 22 2015 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PATRICIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MAZATLAN 34 X 1( 1) 11(12) 10(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MAZATLAN 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAN BLAS 34 X 3( 3) 69(72) 8(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) SAN BLAS 50 X X( X) 24(24) 16(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) SAN BLAS 64 X X( X) 9( 9) 13(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) P VALLARTA 34 X 18(18) 73(91) 3(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) P VALLARTA 50 X 1( 1) 58(59) 7(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) P VALLARTA 64 X X( X) 35(35) 9(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 3 64(67) 25(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X 7( 7) 52(59) 1(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X 1( 1) 32(33) 2(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) MANZANILLO 34 3 52(55) 27(82) 1(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) MANZANILLO 50 X 3( 3) 31(34) 1(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) 16(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) L CARDENAS 34 2 2( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ZIHUATANEJO 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 5( 5) 43(48) 4(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) 13(13) 4(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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