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Hurricane AMANDA Public Advisory Number 18
2014-05-27 04:30:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT MON MAY 26 2014 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 270230 TCPEP1 BULLETIN HURRICANE AMANDA ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014 800 PM PDT MON MAY 26 2014 ...AMANDA CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.7N 111.9W ABOUT 650 MI...1045 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE AMANDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.9 WEST. AMANDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH AND THEN NORTH-NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STEADY OR RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND AMANDA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM BY WEDNESDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.65 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Hurricane AMANDA Graphics
2014-05-26 23:07:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 26 May 2014 20:52:48 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 26 May 2014 21:03:49 GMT
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Hurricane AMANDA Forecast Discussion Number 17
2014-05-26 22:58:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT MON MAY 26 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 262058 TCDEP1 HURRICANE AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014 200 PM PDT MON MAY 26 2014 After significant erosion of the deep convection in the southern portion of the eyewall, a resurgence of convective development has occurred in the past couple of hours, including the redevelopment of the CDO feature and a cloud-filled eye. However, an average of all available satellite intensity estimates indicates that Amanda has still weakened and is now a 105-kt category 3 hurricane. A 12-hour average motion of 335/04 kt was used for the advisory motion, in spite of the many wobbles in the track during the past few hours. Although the model guidance isn't quite the proverbial squashed spider pattern that typically suggests a slow and erratic motion, it isn't far from it. Amanda is expected to move slowly northward into a broad weakness in the subtropical ridge to the north of the cyclone during the next few days, during which time the steering currents are forecast to collapse. While the steering currents erode, Amanda is also forecast to become a significantly weaker and more shallow cyclone during that time, resulting in the cyclone meandering south of Socorro Island as a remnant low by Day 5, if not sooner. The official forecast track remains close to a blend of the consensus model TVCE and the FSSE model. Deep-layer shear of more than 20 kt is expected to continue to affect Amanda for the next 24 hours or so, resulting in steady to rapid weakening during the forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and remains close to the intensity consensus model IVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 13.4N 111.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 27/0600Z 14.0N 112.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 27/1800Z 14.8N 112.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 28/0600Z 15.4N 112.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 28/1800Z 15.9N 112.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 29/1800Z 16.4N 111.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 30/1800Z 16.7N 111.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 120H 31/1800Z 16.7N 112.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane AMANDA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
2014-05-26 22:53:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON MAY 26 2014 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 262053 PWSEP1 HURRICANE AMANDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014 2100 UTC MON MAY 26 2014 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE AMANDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) 2(11) 3(14) ISLA CLARION 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) 2( 9) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Summary for Hurricane AMANDA (EP1/EP012014)
2014-05-26 22:52:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...AMANDA RAPIDLY WEAKENS TO A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE... As of 2:00 PM PDT Mon May 26 the center of AMANDA was located near 13.4, -111.8 with movement NNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 957 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 120 mph.
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