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Hurricane AMANDA Forecast Discussion Number 12
2014-05-25 16:59:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SUN MAY 25 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 251458 TCDEP1 HURRICANE AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014 800 AM PDT SUN MAY 25 2014 Amanda has continued to rapidly strengthen this morning, although the hurricane is likely near its peak intensity. The 15 n mi diameter eye remains quite distinct in infrared and first-light visible satellite imagery, and a solid ring of cloud tops as cold as -75C surround the eye. Subjective classifications at 1200 UTC from TAFB and SAB were T7.0/140 kt and T6.5/127 kt, respectively. The ADT estimate from UW-CIMSS was T6.6/130 kt, and those values have continued to steadily increase to T6.8/135 kt as of 1330 UTC. A blend of these intensity estimates easily support increasing the intensity to 135 kt, which is just below category 5 strength on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Amanda appears to have stalled during the past few hours and is now drifting slowly northward or north-northwestward at around 2 kt, a motion that has been well forecast in previous advisories over the past 2 days. Amanda is expected to maintain a general northward motion over the next 72 hours as the hurricane moves into a combined southerly steering between a mid-/upper-level trough to its west and a mid-level ridge to its east. By days 4 and 5, Amanda is expected to be a significantly weakened and more shallow cyclone that is forecast to slow down and turn westward under the influence of a large low-level subtropical ridge located from Baja California westward into the central Pacific Ocean. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory and lies near a blend of the FSSE and TVCE models. Amanda has likely reached its peak intensity, or is very close to it. Although the SHIPS intensity model indicates SSTs warmer than 29C exists beneath and ahead of the hurricane, various SST analysis products at 1200 UTC this morning indicate that cold upwelling has already begun beneath the cyclone, and this cold upwelling should be exacerbated even further now the cyclone is moving at a forward speed of only 2 kt. As a result, steady weakening is expected within the next 12 hours or so. By 36 hours and beyond, southerly to southwesterly winds shear is forecast to increase to more than 20 kt, which should further enhance the weakening process. By day 5, the global models are in good agreement on the low- and upper-level circulations decoupling, which could result in Amanda becoming a remnant low at that time. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and closely follows the intensity model consensus IVCN, which is well below the SHIPS and LGEM models through 36 hours. Amanda is now the strongest May hurricane on record in the eastern Pacific basin during the satellite era. If Amanda were to reach an intensity of 140 kt, it would become the earliest category 5 hurricane on record, beating out Hurricane Ava of 1973. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 11.8N 111.1W 135 KT 155 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 12.2N 111.3W 130 KT 150 MPH 24H 26/1200Z 13.0N 111.4W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 27/0000Z 14.0N 111.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 27/1200Z 15.0N 111.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 28/1200Z 16.5N 111.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 29/1200Z 17.6N 110.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 30/1200Z 18.6N 110.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Hurricane AMANDA (EP1/EP012014)
2014-05-25 16:58:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...AMANDA RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS TO NEAR CATEGORY 5 INTENSITY... ...BECOMES THE STRONGEST HURRICANE DURING THE MONTH OF MAY... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sun May 25 the center of AMANDA was located near 11.8, -111.1 with movement N at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 932 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 155 mph.
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Hurricane AMANDA Public Advisory Number 12
2014-05-25 16:58:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SUN MAY 25 2014 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 251458 TCPEP1 BULLETIN HURRICANE AMANDA ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014 800 AM PDT SUN MAY 25 2014 ...AMANDA RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS TO NEAR CATEGORY 5 INTENSITY... ...BECOMES THE STRONGEST HURRICANE DURING THE MONTH OF MAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.8N 111.1W ABOUT 770 MI...1240 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...932 MB...27.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE AMANDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.1 WEST. AMANDA IS DRIFTING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H...AND A GENERAL SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR NORTH IS FORECAST TO OCCUR THROUGH TUESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 155 MPH...250 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. AMANDA IS A STRONG CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH STEADY WEAKENING EXPECTED TO BEGIN TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 932 MB...27.53 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Hurricane AMANDA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2014-05-25 16:58:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN MAY 25 2014 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 251458 PWSEP1 HURRICANE AMANDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014 1500 UTC SUN MAY 25 2014 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE AMANDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 135 KTS...155 MPH...250 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 17(23) 8(31) 1(32) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 8(11) 3(14) X(14) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) CLIPPERTON IS 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Hurricane AMANDA Forecast Advisory Number 12
2014-05-25 16:58:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN MAY 25 2014 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 251458 TCMEP1 HURRICANE AMANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014 1500 UTC SUN MAY 25 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 111.1W AT 25/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 932 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 135 KT WITH GUSTS TO 165 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 180SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 111.1W AT 25/1500Z AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 111.1W FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 12.2N 111.3W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 13.0N 111.4W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 14.0N 111.6W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 15.0N 111.7W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 16.5N 111.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 17.6N 110.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 18.6N 110.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.8N 111.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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