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Hurricane AMANDA Public Advisory Number 19
2014-05-27 10:45:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT TUE MAY 27 2014 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 270845 TCPEP1 BULLETIN HURRICANE AMANDA ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014 200 AM PDT TUE MAY 27 2014 ...AMANDA RESTRENGTHENS UNEXPECTEDLY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.2N 112.2W ABOUT 620 MI...995 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE AMANDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.2 WEST. AMANDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS FORECAST BY TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. AMANDA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO RESUME SOON AND THEN CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND AMANDA SHOULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY LATE WEDNESDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 954 MB...28.17 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Hurricane AMANDA Graphics
2014-05-27 05:07:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 27 May 2014 02:31:41 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 27 May 2014 03:03:47 GMT
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Hurricane AMANDA Forecast Discussion Number 18
2014-05-27 04:35:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT MON MAY 26 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 270235 TCDEP1 HURRICANE AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014 800 PM PDT MON MAY 26 2014 Amanda's cloud pattern had been reasonably well organized during the day, with the cyclone maintaining a small Central Dense Overcast and an intermittent but faint eye. The eye has since disappeared and the convective structure has become increasingly less symmetric, presumably as a consequence of an increase in southerly vertical wind shear. The cloud pattern has also recently become elongated poleward, with little to no outflow noted to the south. Using a blend of Dvorak T- and CI numbers and recent satellite trends...the advisory wind speed is reduced to 90 kt. Center fixes indicate that Amanda has moved somewhat erratically during the day...but smoothing through these yields an initial motion of 340/04. The cyclone is embedded in a region of weak steering flow between a mid-level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico and a mid- to upper-level trough to the west. This pattern should steer the cyclone slowly northward during the next couple of days. After that time, the forecast becomes more challenging as the model spread increases significantly. The GFS forecasts Amanda to remain a deeper cyclone longer and therefore moves it much farther northeast, while the ECMWF shows the cyclone decoupling sooner and interacting with a disturbance to the its east. As a result, Amanda or its remnants in the ECMWF solution move generally eastward without gaining much latitude. Given the uncertainty, the official forecast is close to the multi-model consensus TVCE and a little to the east of the previous forecast beyond 36 hours. Global models show the shear at its worst during the next 24 hours and then slowly decreasing as the mid- to upper-level trough affecting the cyclone lifts out. Even though upper-level winds are forecast to become anticyclonic late in the period...what remains of the Amanda should be moving over cooler waters and within a region of substantially drier and more stable air in the wake of the aforementioned trough. Thus, it would seem that the shear debilitates Amanda and the other negative factors cause the cyclone to degenerate into a remnant low. The official forecast is lower than the previous one and is a blend of the multi-model intensity consensus ICON and LGEM. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 13.7N 111.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 14.2N 112.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 14.9N 112.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 28/1200Z 15.4N 112.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 29/0000Z 15.9N 112.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 30/0000Z 16.5N 111.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 31/0000Z 17.0N 111.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/0000Z 16.9N 111.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Hurricane AMANDA Forecast Advisory Number 18
2014-05-27 04:30:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE MAY 27 2014 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 270230 TCMEP1 HURRICANE AMANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014 0300 UTC TUE MAY 27 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 111.9W AT 27/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 150SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 111.9W AT 27/0300Z AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 111.9W FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 14.2N 112.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 14.9N 112.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 15.4N 112.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 15.9N 112.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 10SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 16.5N 111.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z 17.0N 111.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 16.9N 111.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 111.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Summary for Hurricane AMANDA (EP1/EP012014)
2014-05-27 04:30:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...AMANDA CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN... As of 8:00 PM PDT Mon May 26 the center of AMANDA was located near 13.7, -111.9 with movement NNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 970 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.
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