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Hurricane Linda Forecast Advisory Number 27

2021-08-16 22:46:40| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 16 2021

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Tropical Storm Henri Forecast Discussion Number 4

2021-08-16 22:46:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Aug 16 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 162046 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Henri Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 500 PM AST Mon Aug 16 2021 Deep convection has persisted near and southeast of the center of the small tropical cyclone today, and subjective Dvorak intensity estimates were a consensus T2.5 (35 kt) at 1800 UTC. Objective estimates from ADT and SATCON also support tropical storm status, therefore the depression has been upgraded to a 35-kt tropical storm with this advisory. Henri (ahn-REE) becomes the eighth named storm of the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season. This is the fourth-earliest eighth storm on record with only 2020, 2005, and 1936 having the eighth-named storm form earlier in the season. Henri is located over warm waters, but is currently being affected by light to moderate northerly shear and dry mid-level air in the surrounding environment. Although these conditions are not overly conducive for strengthening, most of the intensity guidance supports gradual intensification over the next 24 to 48 hours. After that time, a significant increase in northeasterly upper-level winds is depicted by the global models over the system, which is likely to halt further strengthening. In fact, given the small size of Henri, it is likely to be more susceptible to the increase in shear, and it could weaken faster than indicated below. The HWRF remains more aggressive, but given the expected increase in shear, that solution still does not seem likely. The NHC intensity forecast is in best agreement with the LGEM model, and is slightly below the IVCN intensity consensus. The tropical storm is moving south-southwestward or 200/6 kt. Henri is forecast to move west-southwestward during the next 12-24 hours around the southeastern side of a mid-tropospheric high over the western Atlantic. After that time, Henri should turn westward as the ridge shifts eastward to the north of the tropical cyclone, and after 72 hours Henri is expected to approach the western extent of the ridge and should turn northward and then north-northeastward. The dynamical model guidance is in somewhat better agreement during the next 48-72 hours, but there remains some spread later in the period as to how sharp of northward turn occurs. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory and lies near the center of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 31.0N 62.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 30.5N 63.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 17/1800Z 30.3N 64.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 18/0600Z 30.2N 65.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 18/1800Z 30.2N 66.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 19/0600Z 30.3N 68.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 19/1800Z 30.5N 69.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 20/1800Z 31.8N 70.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 21/1800Z 34.2N 68.4W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Storm Henri Forecast Advisory Number 4

2021-08-16 22:45:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 16 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 162045 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM HENRI FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082021 2100 UTC MON AUG 16 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.0N 62.9W AT 16/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OR 200 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 30SE 20SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.0N 62.9W AT 16/2100Z AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.1N 62.9W FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 30.5N 63.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 30.3N 64.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 30.2N 65.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 30.2N 66.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 30.3N 68.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 30.5N 69.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 31.8N 70.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 34.2N 68.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.0N 62.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 17/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Tropical Storm Fred Forecast Advisory Number 29

2021-08-16 22:44:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 16 2021 000 WTNT21 KNHC 162044 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021 2100 UTC MON AUG 16 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WEST OF THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE IS DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * COAST OF FLORIDA FROM INDIAN PASS TO YANKEETOWN A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND FROM THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE TO THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 85.3W AT 16/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 50SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 75NE 100SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 75SE 60SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 85.3W AT 16/2100Z AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 85.4W FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 31.5N 85.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 34.0N 84.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 37.0N 82.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 39.5N 80.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.9N 85.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 17/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Tropical Storm Fred Forecast Discussion Number 28

2021-08-16 17:00:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021 000 WTNT41 KNHC 161500 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fred Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 1000 AM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021 Fred became better organized on satellite and radar images this morning, with the center fairly well embedded within a small CDO and a large convective band over the eastern portion of the circulation. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters found flight-level winds that supported an intensity of 50 kt, and data from the aircraft also found that the central pressure had fallen to 993 mb, although the most recent pressures appeared to have leveled off. The satellite and radar data also show a dry slot over the southeastern quadrant. Fred is over very warm waters of near 30 deg C and within a fairly moist mid-level atmosphere. A little more strengthening is possible prior to landfall, but significant southwesterly shear is likely to limit strengthening. Also, the storm has little time remaining over water. The latest official intensity forecast is similar to the LGEM guidance. Center fixes from the Hurricane Hunters and WSR-88D data from Tallahassee and Eglin AFB indicate that Fred is a little east of the previous track. It is not certain whether this is due to a slight reformation of the center nearer to the strongest convection, but that is certainly a possibility. Based on the most recent fixes, the current motion estimate is just slightly east of north, or 010/9 kt. Fred is moving between the western side of a mid-level subtropical high pressure area over the southwestern Atlantic and a weak trough over the east-central United States. A slight bend of the track toward the north-northeast with a little acceleration is expected during the next couple of days. The official forecast is just a bit to the east of the previous one, and follows the most recent multi-model consensus. Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track of Fred, since rainfall, storm surge, and wind hazards will extend over an area well east of the center. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Through Tuesday, heavy rainfall may lead to flash, urban, small stream, and isolated river flooding impacts across the Southeast. By the middle of the week as Fred lifts north and inland, heavy rainfall and flooding will impact the southern and central Appalachians, the Piedmont of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. Landslides are possible across the mountains of North Carolina and Blue Ridge Escarpment on Tuesday. 2. Dangerous storm surge inundation is expected along portions of the coast of the Florida Panhandle and the Florida Big Bend region. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion in the Storm Surge Warning area. 3. Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the warning area and will spread farther inland later today and tonight across portions of the Florida Panhandle, southwestern Georgia, and southeastern Alabama. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 29.2N 85.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 30.5N 85.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 24H 17/1200Z 32.6N 85.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 18/0000Z 35.0N 84.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 18/1200Z 38.0N 82.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 60H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

Tags: number discussion storm fred

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