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Hurricane Linda Forecast Discussion Number 29
2021-08-17 10:39:00| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 1100 PM HST Mon Aug 16 2021
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Hurricane Linda Forecast Advisory Number 29
2021-08-17 10:37:58| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 17 2021
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Tropical Storm Henri Forecast Discussion Number 6
2021-08-17 10:31:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Aug 17 2021 790 WTNT43 KNHC 170831 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Henri Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 500 AM AST Tue Aug 17 2021 Earlier this evening Henri was undergoing a sheared bursting pattern, with intermittent deep convection trying to develop near the center, but northwesterly shear would quickly diminish the convective coverage. However, over the past several hours the convection has become more persistent, and covers at least the southeastern portion of the low-level center. As such, the latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are now both 3.0 (45 kt), and therefore 45 kt will be the initial advisory intensity. Henri is forecast to remain over warm waters and in an environment of light to moderate northerly shear for the next 24 h, so some strengthening is expected during that time. After 24 h, global models indicate that the shear magnitude will double, which should prevent any further strengthening and possibly weaken the cyclone. The latest NHC intensity forecast was adjusted a little higher than the previous due to both the increase in initial intensity, and slight increase in the model intensity guidance. This forecast closely follows the LGEM solution and is just a little lower than the IVCN consensus. The tropical storm continues to move slowly southwest, or 240/04 kt to the southeast of a mid-level ridge. This ridge is forecast to shift to the east over the next several days, which would result in the tropical storm making a gradual clockwise turn throughout much of the forecast period. Tonight, Henri is forecast to turn westward with a increase in forward motion and pass well south of Bermuda. In a few days, the cyclone should turn to the northwest then north, followed by a turn to the northeast around the western periphery of the ridge. There continues to be some spread in how far west Henri will go before it begins to turn to the north, and the latest guidance has made a slight shift to the left. The official NHC forecast is near the previous one through 48 h, then is a little left of it thereafter, yet still remains to the right of the bulk of the consensus guidance beyond 48 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 30.6N 63.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 17/1800Z 30.4N 64.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 18/0600Z 30.3N 65.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 18/1800Z 30.2N 67.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 19/0600Z 30.3N 68.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 19/1800Z 30.8N 69.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 20/0600Z 31.6N 70.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 21/0600Z 34.0N 69.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 22/0600Z 36.0N 66.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Henri Forecast Advisory Number 6
2021-08-17 10:30:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 17 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 170830 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM HENRI FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082021 0900 UTC TUE AUG 17 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 63.7W AT 17/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 240 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 63.7W AT 17/0900Z AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 63.5W FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 30.4N 64.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 30.3N 65.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 30.2N 67.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 30.3N 68.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 30.8N 69.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 31.6N 70.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 34.0N 69.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 36.0N 66.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.6N 63.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 17/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Hurricane Linda Forecast Information (.shp)
2021-08-17 07:13:17| Tropical Depression LIDIA
GIS Data last updated Tue, 17 Aug 2021 05:13:17 GMT
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