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Tropical Storm Grace Forecast Advisory Number 19

2021-08-18 04:48:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 18 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 180248 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 0300 UTC WED AUG 18 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CABO CATOCHE WESTWARD TO DZILAM. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTH AND WEST COASTS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM WEST OF DZILAM TO CAMPECHE. THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM CANCUN TO PUNTA HERRERO... INCLUDING COZUMEL A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAYMAN ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * JAMAICA * SOUTHERN COAST OF THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GRANMA...LAS TUNAS...AND CAMAGUEY * CAYMAN ISLANDS * YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO DZILAM * YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF PUNTA HERRERO TO PUERTO COSTA MAYA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTHERN COAST OF THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIENFUEGOS...MATANZAS...AND PINAR DEL RIO...AS WELL AS ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD * NORTH AND WEST COASTS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM WEST OF DZILAM TO CAMPECHE A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM- FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GRACE. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED EARLY WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 79.2W AT 18/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......100NE 90SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 79.2W AT 18/0300Z AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 78.6W FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 18.9N 81.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 19.5N 84.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 20.0N 87.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 20.4N 90.7W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 40SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 20.7N 93.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.8N 95.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 40SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 20.7N 100.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 20.5N 104.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 79.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 18/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Tropical Storm Grace Forecast Discussion Number 18

2021-08-17 22:56:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021 272 WTNT42 KNHC 172056 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Grace Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 500 PM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021 Radar imagery and earlier Hurricane Hunter aircraft and ASCAT observations indicate that the center of Grace has been moving over Jamaica. The aircraft and scatterometer data indicate that the maximum winds are near 45 kt. Cirrus-level outflow from the system remains quite pronounced, suggestive of weak vertical shear at this time. Grace will be moving over the waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea beginning later tonight. These waters are of very high oceanic heat content. Although mid-level environmental humidities are shown by the SHIPS diagnoses to be only marginally moist for the next couple of days, other factors should be conducive for strengthening. The official intensity forecast, which shows Grace becoming a hurricane tomorrow, is in reasonable agreement with the latest multi-model consensus. Some slight weakening should occur due to passage over the Yucatan Peninsula, followed by re-intensification over the Bay of Campeche. There is, however, significant uncertainty in the intensity prediction for this latter part of the forecast period. The storm continues on a heading just north of west, or 280/13 kt. A strong 500-mb ridge should be maintained to the north of Grace for essentially the entire forecast period. There is good agreement among the track models on a continued generally westward to west-northwestward motion for the next 5 days. Little change has been made to the official track forecast in comparison to the previous one. The new NHC track is, again, very close to the dynamical model consensus. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane conditions and a dangerous storm surge are expected over portions of the Hurricane Warning area in the eastern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late Wednesday night. 2. Heavy rainfall across Haiti, Cuba, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the Yucatan Peninsula is likely to cause to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, with the potential for mudslides highest in Haiti. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of Jamaica through this evening, and over the Cayman Islands tonight and early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread westward from portions of the southern coast of Cuba in the warning area to, possibly, other portions of the southern coast of Cuba in the watch area tonight through Wednesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 18.4N 77.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 18.9N 80.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 18/1800Z 19.4N 83.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 19/0600Z 20.0N 86.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 19/1800Z 20.5N 89.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 60H 20/0600Z 20.9N 92.2W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 20/1800Z 21.2N 94.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 21/1800Z 21.0N 99.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 120H 22/1800Z 21.0N 103.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Tropical Storm Grace Forecast Advisory Number 18

2021-08-17 22:53:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 17 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 172053 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 2100 UTC TUE AUG 17 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CANCUN TO PUNTA HERRERO INCLUDING COZUMEL...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO CABO CATOCHE...AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM SOUTH OF PUNTA HERRERO TO PUERTO COSTA MAYA. THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM CANCUN TO PUNTA HERRERO... INCLUDING COZUMEL A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAYMAN ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * JAMAICA * SOUTHERN COAST OF THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GRANMA...LAS TUNAS...AND CAMAGUEY * CAYMAN ISLANDS * YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO CABO CATOCHE * YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF PUNTA HERRERO TO PUERTO COSTA MAYA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTHERN COAST OF THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIENFUEGOS...MATANZAS...AND PINAR DEL RIO...AS WELL AS ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GRACE. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 77.9W AT 17/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 77.9W AT 17/2100Z AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 77.4W FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 18.9N 80.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 19.4N 83.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 20.0N 86.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 20.5N 89.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 40SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 20.9N 92.2W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 21.2N 94.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 40SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 21.0N 99.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 21.0N 103.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 77.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 18/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Tropical Storm Henri Forecast Discussion Number 8

2021-08-17 22:40:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Aug 17 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 172040 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Henri Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 500 PM AST Tue Aug 17 2021 Henri appears to be gaining strength. Satellite images show banding features becoming increasingly curved, especially on the east side of the system, and an eye feature has been occasionally seen in radar images from Bermuda. The upper-level outflow is also well established to the north and east of the center. The center itself is estimated to be located near the western edge of the convection, but it is possible that a new center is forming farther east. The initial intensity is raised to 55 kt following the Dvorak classification from TAFB. The initial wind radii has been expanded outward based on an earlier ASCAT pass. The tropical storm appears to have slowed down, and the latest initial motion estimate is 255/2 kt. A subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic is building eastward to the north of Henri, and this feature should steer the storm westward at a slightly faster pace during the next two to three days. After that time, the ridge is expected to weaken and shift farther east as a cut off low or negatively-tilted trough develops over the northeast U.S. This change in the steering pattern should cause Henri to turn northeastward between Bermuda and the east coast of the U.S in the 72-120 h period. There is a fair amount of spread in exactly when and where Henri makes this turn and the GFS and EC ensembles have some members not far offshore of New England and Atlantic Canada. Overall, the guidance has shifted westward again this cycle, and the NHC track forecast has been adjusted accordingly from days 3 to 5. The northwesterly shear currently affecting Henri is subsiding, which should allow the storm to gain a little more strength tonight. However, a round of moderate northerly shear is expected to setup over Henri on Wednesday and Thursday and that will likely temporarily end the opportunity for strengthening. Although this shear would typically cause some weakening, the combination of warm SSTs and increasing mid-level moisture could offset the negative influences of the shear. By Friday and over the weekend, the shear is expected to lessen again and since the other environmental factors are predicted to remain favorable for the storm, strengthening is shown from days 3-5. This forecast is above the previous one, and lies fairly close to the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 30.4N 64.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 30.3N 65.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 18/1800Z 30.2N 67.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 19/0600Z 30.2N 68.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 19/1800Z 30.3N 70.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 20/0600Z 31.0N 71.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 20/1800Z 32.0N 71.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 21/1800Z 35.5N 69.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 22/1800Z 39.1N 65.2W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Tropical Storm Henri Forecast Advisory Number 8

2021-08-17 22:39:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 17 2021 564 WTNT23 KNHC 172039 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM HENRI FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082021 2100 UTC TUE AUG 17 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.4N 64.2W AT 17/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.4N 64.2W AT 17/2100Z AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.4N 64.2W FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 30.3N 65.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 30.2N 67.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 30.2N 68.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 30.3N 70.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 31.0N 71.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 32.0N 71.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 35.5N 69.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 39.1N 65.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.4N 64.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 18/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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