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Hurricane Linda Forecast Advisory Number 33

2021-08-18 10:54:14| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 18 2021

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Tropical Storm Henri Forecast Discussion Number 10

2021-08-18 10:54:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Aug 18 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 180854 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Henri Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 500 AM AST Wed Aug 18 2021 There's been little change in Henri's satellite appearance this morning. The surface center is still located just to the northwest of a gradually expanding central dense overcast, and there still appears to be an eye-like feature in the Bermuda Doppler radar presentation. However, there are no indications in the GOES-16 BD-curve enhanced infrared images of a developing warm spot. Subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates remain steady, and the initial intensity is held at 55 kt for this advisory. Although the surrounding thermodynamic environment is ripe for further significant development, moderate northwesterly shear continues to impinge on the cyclone causing difficulty in inner-core convective development. Consequently, little change in strength is expected during the next couple days, and in fact the statistical SHIPS model indicates an increase in a more northerly shear component on Thursday. By Saturday afternoon, however, the shear should decrease as the cyclone slides beneath an upper ridge axis off of the southeast U.S. coast. Henri is expected to further intensity through the remaining period as the upper-wind flow becomes much more diffluent. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and lies between the SHIPS model and the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach aid after the 60-hour period. The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 260/7 kt. A high amplitude mid- to upper-level anticyclone situated north-northeast of Henri should steer the cyclone toward the west during the next 36 hours, or so. Thereafter, the aforementioned ridge is forecast to weaken and shift eastward in response to a mid-latitude shortwave trough moving over the northeastern U.S. As a result of the change in the synoptic steering pattern, Henri should turn toward the northwest, north, and then northeast through the remaining portion of the forecast. With so much uncertainty or spread in the global and regional models beyond day 3, the best approach at this point is to base the NHC forecast on the better performing multi-model consensus guidance, which has once again shifted a bit to the left of the previous track forecast. I think it's worth noting that the GFSv16 model is now showing a shortwave ridge building over eastern Canada on Sunday, which causes Henri to move more northward toward the New England coast. Therefore, additional changes or shifts of the track beyond the 60-hour period may be required on subsequent advisories. Due to the increased uncertainty in the track forecast, interests along the New England coast should monitor the progress of Henri. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 30.1N 65.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 18/1800Z 29.9N 66.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 19/0600Z 29.8N 68.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 19/1800Z 29.8N 70.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 20/0600Z 30.4N 71.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 20/1800Z 31.4N 72.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 21/0600Z 33.0N 71.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 22/0600Z 37.6N 69.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 23/0600Z 40.5N 66.1W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts

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Tropical Storm Grace Forecast Discussion Number 20

2021-08-18 10:52:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM EDT Wed Aug 18 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 180852 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Grace Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 500 AM EDT Wed Aug 18 2021 An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating Grace earlier this morning observed a peak 850-mb flight-level wind of 61 kt in the northeastern quadrant along with reliable SFMR surface wind speeds of 50-52 kt. The aircraft measured a central pressure of about 1000 mb, a reading that had been steady for about 3 hours. Those data were the basis for maintaining the 0600 UTC intensity at 50 kt. Since the last recon mission, however, deep convection has increased markedly over the low-level center, with cloud tops exceeding -75 deg C. Although the center is just inside the western edge of convective cloud canopy due to modest west-northwesterly vertical wind shear, Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are a consensus T3.5/55 kt. These intensity estimates, along with the increase in convection over the center is the justification for increasing the 0900 UTC advisory intensity to 55 kt. Grace has been maintaining a steady course north of due west, or 280/14 kt for more than 18 hours. A strong deep-layer ridge to the north of the cyclone is expected to keep Grace moving in direction between west and west-northwest through the 96-hour forecast period. The latest NHC model guidance remain in strong agreement on Grace making landfall along the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico shortly after the 24-hour forecast period, followed by a motion across the peninsula and emerging over the Bay of Campeche around 36 hours. Thereafter, the model guidance begins to diverge, with the HWRF, HMON, and COAMPS-TC regional models along the northern side of the guidance envelope, the GFS and UKMET global models down the middle, and the ECMWF model along the southern edge of the guidance suite. The new NHC forecast lies close to the previous advisory track and the consensus models TVCA and HCCA, which are a little south of the FSSE consensus model. Although the upper-level wind environment isn't ideal for rapid strengthening, it is conducive enough for steady strengthening to occur due to the flow forecast to be strongly diffluent. Sea-surface temperatures are expected to be near 30 deg C and the water is also deep and warm, which should prevent any cold upwelling from occurring beneath the cyclone. As a result, a peak intensity of 75 kt just prior to landfall has been carried over from the previous advisory, which is a little above all of the 0600 UTC intensity guidance. Although Grace will weaken substantially after passing over the Yucatan peninsula, restrengthening is expected over the warm waters of thew Bay of Campeche in the 48-72- hour period where the upper-level flow regime is forecast to be more conducive for intensification. Dissipation is now expected over the mountains of central Mexico by 120 hours. The NHC intensity forecast is in best agreement with the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids at 36 hours and beyond. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane conditions and a dangerous storm surge are expected over portions of the Hurricane Warning area in the eastern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico beginning late tonight. 2. Over the next few days, heavy rainfall across the Cayman Islands as well as portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and Vera Cruz State should lead to flash and urban flooding. Mudslides will be possible in Jamaica. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected over the Cayman Islands through this morning. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Cayman Islands later this morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread westward from portions of the southern coast of Cuba in the warning area to, possibly, other portions of the southern coast of Cuba in the watch area today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 18.8N 80.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 18/1800Z 19.3N 83.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 19/0600Z 19.9N 86.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 19/1800Z 20.3N 89.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 48H 20/0600Z 20.6N 92.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER 60H 20/1800Z 20.7N 94.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 21/0600Z 20.7N 96.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 22/0600Z 20.6N 101.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 120H 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Tropical Storm Grace Forecast Advisory Number 20

2021-08-18 10:51:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 18 2021 144 WTNT22 KNHC 180851 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 0900 UTC WED AUG 18 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR JAMAICA. THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST CUBAN PROVINCES OF GRANMA...LAS TUNAS...AND CAMAGUEY. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIENFUEGOS... MATANZAS HAVE ALSO BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE NORTH AND WEST COASTS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM WEST OF DZILAM TO CAMPECHE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM CANCUN TO PUNTA HERRERO... INCLUDING COZUMEL A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAYMAN ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAYMAN ISLANDS * YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO CAMPECHE * YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF PUNTA HERRERO TO PUERTO COSTA MAYA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTHERN COAST CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO...AS WELL AS ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM- FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GRACE. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 80.9W AT 18/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......100NE 90SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 80.9W AT 18/0900Z AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 80.1W FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 19.3N 83.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 19.9N 86.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 20.3N 89.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 20.6N 92.1W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 40SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 20.7N 94.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.7N 96.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 40SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 20.6N 101.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 80.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 18/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Tropical Storm Henri Forecast Discussion Number 9

2021-08-18 05:32:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Aug 17 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 180331 CCA TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Henri Discussion Number 9...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 1100 PM AST Tue Aug 17 2021 Corrected speed of motion in the second paragraph. Henri's appearance on satellite imagery has remained more or less steady-state, featuring a small CDO with additional convective banding along the eastern side of the circulation. However, the earlier mid-level eye feature that was trying to develop on radar from Bermuda has recently become more ill-defined, possibly due to some dry-air being entrained into the inner-core of the storm. The latest Dvorak subjective estimates from SAB and TAFB were T3.0/45 kt and T3.5/55 kt, respectively. In addition, a 2336 UTC ASCAT-A pass had lower peak wind retrievals than what was found earlier today, but this instrument may not be quite able to sample the relatively small tropical cyclone core observed on radar. For now, the initial intensity will be held at 55 kt, though this estimate could be a bit generous given the recent scatterometer data. Henri has begun a more pronounced motion to the west-southwest, and the latest initial motion is estimated at 255/07 kt. An amplified mid- to upper-tropospheric ridge located northwest of Henri is expected to keep the storm on a west-southwestward or westward heading in the short term. However this ridge will begin to gradually erode as an mid- to upper-level trough propagates eastward to the Eastern United States. This should allow Henri to start gaining latitude by 48 hours, turning toward the northwest, north, and then northeast as the mid-level ridging redevelops southeast of the cyclone. There remains a large amount of spread in the guidance, with the stronger regional hurricane models on the left side, while the weaker global models remain more on the right side of the guidance envelope. In general though, there was another westward shift in the guidance suite, so the latest NHC forecast track was adjusted again in that direction, and is in closest agreement to the HCCA guidance aid. The intensity forecast in the short-term is tricky. Last night and this morning, Henri's deep convection was been able to propagate into its up-shear quadrant, in spite of light to moderate northwesterly shear importing fairly dry mid-latitude air from the north. Consequently, the storm has been able to intensify and become more axis-symmetrical. Over the past few hours, however, the convection to the northwest of the center has eroded once again on Bermuda radar, likely due to dry air entrainment by the aforementioned vertical wind shear. On the other hand, the tropical cyclone is currently over sea-surface temperatures above 29 C, which will likely allow for significant boundary layer recovery of dry mid-level air that is able to get into the inner core. Thus, even as northerly vertical wind shear increases over the next 24 hours, Henri is expected to maintain its intensity. After 60 hours, this northerly shear is expected to subside, and Henri will have an opportunity to intensify towards the end of the forecast. The latest NHC intensity forecast is quite similar to the previous one for the first 60 hours, but is a little stronger in the latter time periods, blending the reliable HCCA guidance with the more aggressive regional hurricane models (HWRF, COAMPS-TC). FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 30.0N 65.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 29.9N 66.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 19/0000Z 29.8N 67.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 19/1200Z 29.8N 69.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 20/0000Z 30.1N 71.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 20/1200Z 30.9N 72.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 21/0000Z 32.0N 71.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 22/0000Z 36.6N 69.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 23/0000Z 40.2N 65.0W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin/Brown

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