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Hurricane Linda Forecast Discussion Number 27
2021-08-16 22:49:47| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 1100 AM HST Mon Aug 16 2021
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Hurricane Linda Forecast Information (.shp)
2021-08-16 22:49:40| Tropical Depression LIDIA
GIS Data last updated Mon, 16 Aug 2021 20:49:40 GMT
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Tropical Depression Grace Forecast Discussion Number 14
2021-08-16 22:48:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Mon Aug 16 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 162048 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Grace Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 500 PM EDT Mon Aug 16 2021 Grace may have regained tropical storm status just before the center moved across the Barahona Peninsula of the Dominican Republic around midday. The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters measured peak 925-mb winds of 45 kt very near the coast, which would equate to an intensity right at the threshold of tropical storm. Since then, however, land interaction has likely weakened these winds, and Grace is still estimated to be a 30-kt depression. The center appears to have moved back over water just to the south of the Haitian coast. Grace has been moving a little slower today, possibly due to interaction with the terrain of Hispaniola, and the initial motion is estimated to be 285/11 kt. A mid-level high centered over the western Atlantic is forecast to build westward over the southeastern United States and northern Gulf of Mexico in the coming days. This pattern should keep Grace on a westward to west-northwestward trajectory for the entire 5-day forecast period, moving across the northwestern Caribbean Sea, across the northern Yucatan Peninsula, and into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. The most significant model trends are on days 4 and 5, when many of the track models are indicating a slight west-southwest bend as the cyclone approaches mainland Mexico. The NHC track forecast has been nudged southward at most forecast times, but that may be within the noise level of typical model run-to-run variability. Once the center of Grace moves away from Hispaniola tomorrow, the deep, warm waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea and relatively light deep-layer shear should be conducive for strengthening. Model data suggest that some mid-level shear could come into play at times, so it's not a sure bet that conditions will be ideal for significant strengthening. Partly for that reason, the NHC intensity forecast is near or just below the intensity consensus. However, even this new forecast is a little higher than the previous forecast, and many of the models indicate that Grace could be near or at hurricane strength when it approaches the Yucatan Peninsula in about 60 hours. After passing the Yucatan Peninsula, additional strengthening is likely, and the new forecast now explicitly shows Grace reaching hurricane intensity over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall across the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands may lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, with the potential for mudslides highest in Haiti and the Dominican Republic. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible over portions of Hispaniola this evening and tonight, and over Jamaica on Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the southern coast of Cuba on Tuesday, spreading westward to the Cayman Islands and possibly other portions of the southern coast of Cuba Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning. 3. There is a increasing risk of wind, rainfall, and storm surge impacts on the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico Wednesday night and Thursday. Interests there areas should monitor the progress of Grace and updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 17.9N 72.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 18.3N 74.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...NEAR SW TIP OF HAITI 24H 17/1800Z 18.9N 77.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 18/0600Z 19.6N 80.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...NEAR CAYMAN ISLANDS 48H 18/1800Z 20.2N 83.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 19/0600Z 20.9N 86.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...NEAR YUCATAN COAST 72H 19/1800Z 21.6N 89.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 20/1800Z 22.4N 95.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 21/1800Z 22.4N 98.8W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Depression Grace Forecast Advisory Number 14
2021-08-16 22:47:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 16 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 162047 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 2100 UTC MON AUG 16 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTHERN COAST OF THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA... GRANMA...LAS TUNAS...AND CAMAGUEY * CAYMAN ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI * JAMAICA * SOUTHERN COAST OF THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIENFUEGOS...AND MATANZAS...AS WELL AS ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GRACE. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OR ON TUESDAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 72.4W AT 16/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 72.4W AT 16/2100Z AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 71.8W FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 18.3N 74.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 18.9N 77.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 19.6N 80.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 20.2N 83.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 20.9N 86.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 21.6N 89.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 70SE 40SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 22.4N 95.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 22.4N 98.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 72.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 17/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm Fred Forecast Discussion Number 29
2021-08-16 22:46:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021 000 WTNT41 KNHC 162046 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fred Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 400 PM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021 Radar data indicate that the center of Fred made landfall in the eastern Florida Panhandle a little while ago, and it is currently moving farther inland. Observations from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate that the storm reached a peak intensity of 55 kt just before landfall. Assuming some weakening since crossing the coast, the current intensity estimate is 50 kt. Fairly rapid weakening will occur while the center moves over land, and the cyclone will probably be reduced to tropical depression status by tomorrow morning. The official intensity forecast for the next day or so is close to the latest Decay-SHIPS model guidance. Radar fixes indicate that the motion is north-northeastward, or 020/8 kt. During the next day or two Fred should move, with increasing forward speed, between a mid-level subtropical high pressure area over the southwestern Atlantic and a weak trough over the east-central United states. The official track forecast is quite close to the latest NOAA corrected consensus model prediction, HCCA. Although it is weakening, Fred is likely to bring flooding rains over portions of the southeastern and eastern United States during the next couple of days. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Through Tuesday, heavy rainfall may lead to considerable flash, urban, small stream, and isolated river flooding impacts across portions of the Florida Big Bend and Panhandle. By the middle of the week as Fred lifts north and inland, heavy rainfall and flooding will impact the southern and central Appalachians, the Piedmont of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. Landslides are possible across the mountains of North Carolina and Blue Ridge Escarpment on Tuesday. 2. Dangerous storm surge inundation is ongoing along portions of the coast of the Florida Panhandle and the Florida Big Bend region. 3. Tropical storm conditions will continue along the coastline within the warning area over the next few hours and will continue to spread farther inland later today and tonight across portions of the Florida Panhandle, southwestern Georgia, and southeastern Alabama. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 29.9N 85.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 12H 17/0600Z 31.5N 85.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 17/1800Z 34.0N 84.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 18/0600Z 37.0N 82.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 18/1800Z 39.5N 80.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 60H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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