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Tropical Storm Kevin Forecast Advisory Number 7
2021-08-09 04:32:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 09 2021 578 WTPZ21 KNHC 090232 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KEVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112021 0300 UTC MON AUG 09 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 110.3W AT 09/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 0SE 0SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 110.3W AT 09/0300Z AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 110.0W FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 16.4N 111.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 17.2N 112.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 18.0N 114.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 18.7N 115.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 19.6N 117.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 20.6N 119.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 22.1N 123.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 23.5N 128.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 110.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm Kevin Forecast Discussion Number 6
2021-08-08 22:35:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Sun Aug 08 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 082034 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Kevin Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021 300 PM MDT Sun Aug 08 2021 The earlier burst of deep convection almost completely dissipated, leaving the core of the low-level circulation briefly exposed. However, over the past couple of hours new convection has redeveloped over the center of Kevin. This disruption, possibly aided by moderate northeasterly shear, put a temporary pause on the cyclone's strengthening. The latest Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB and SAB have decreased to 3.0 (45 kt), while the CI-values remain at 3.5 (55 kt). Based on a blend of these numbers, the estimated initial advisory intensity remains 50 kt. Kevin is forecast to remain over warm waters while embedded in a moist and unstable atmospheric environment for the next 48 h or so. The main inhibiting factor for intensification is the persistent vertical wind shear, which is forecast to persist for the next few days. Kevin is forecast by all of the intensity guidance to overcome this shear, and slowly strengthen over the next two days. After 60 h, Kevin should begin to move over decreasing SSTs and into a more stable atmospheric environment, which should cause the cyclone to steadily weaken. By 120 h, the system is forecast to be over waters of less than 23 degrees C, likely causing the cyclone to become devoid of deep convection. The only notable change in the latest NHC forecast from the previous one was to introduce the mention of the system as post-tropical by day 5. Otherwise, the latest forecast remains near the IVCN consensus aid. Kevin continues to move westward, or 270/7 kt. There is no change to the forecast track reasoning. A mid- to upper-level trough west of the Baja California peninsula is expected to weaken the western portion of the ridge that is currently steering Kevin westward. This should cause the cyclone to turn west-northwestward overnight and this west-northwestward heading is then expected to continue for the remainder of the forecast period. The latest track guidance is in very good agreement on this scenario, and the NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 15.8N 109.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 16.0N 110.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 09/1800Z 16.6N 112.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 10/0600Z 17.3N 113.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 10/1800Z 18.1N 115.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 11/0600Z 19.0N 116.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 11/1800Z 19.8N 118.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 12/1800Z 21.5N 122.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 13/1800Z 23.0N 126.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Kevin Forecast Advisory Number 6
2021-08-08 22:30:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 08 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 082030 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KEVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112021 2100 UTC SUN AUG 08 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 109.7W AT 08/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 0SE 0SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 109.7W AT 08/2100Z AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 109.4W FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 16.0N 110.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 16.6N 112.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 17.3N 113.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 18.1N 115.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 19.0N 116.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 19.8N 118.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 21.5N 122.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 23.0N 126.8W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 109.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Storm Kevin Forecast Advisory Number 5
2021-08-08 16:45:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 08 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 081445 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KEVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112021 1500 UTC SUN AUG 08 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 109.0W AT 08/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 109.0W AT 08/1500Z AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 108.7W FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 15.8N 110.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 16.2N 111.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 16.9N 112.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 17.7N 114.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 18.5N 115.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 19.4N 117.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 21.2N 120.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 22.7N 125.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 109.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Kevin Forecast Discussion Number 4
2021-08-08 10:39:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Sun Aug 08 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 080839 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Kevin Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021 300 AM MDT Sun Aug 08 2021 Kevin has changed little overnight. Microwave data and infrared satellite imagery reveal that its convective bands are still somewhat fragmented with only modest curvature. Recent UW-CIMSS objective estimates and subjective Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB range from 35 to 45 kt, so the initial intensity is held at 40 kt for this advisory. Unfortunately, no recent scatterometer passes were available to better assess the cyclone's current intensity. The cyclone continues moving westward, or 270 degrees, at around 9 kt. This motion is expected for another 12 to 24 h, before a mid- to upper-level trough weakens the steering ridge and causes Kevin to move west-northwestward through midweek. Kevin is forecast to pass near or just south of Clarion Island on Tuesday. The track guidance is in good agreement for much of the forecast period, and the latest official NHC forecast lies near the previous one and generally follows the multi-model consensus aids. Kevin appears primed for some strengthening, as the cyclone will remain in a moist, unstable environment with ample oceanic heat content for the next couple of days. However, persistent northeasterly wind shear of 15-20 kt will likely curtail rapid intensification in an otherwise favorable environment. Despite the shear, the guidance supports strengthening in the near-term, and the official NHC forecast shows Kevin becoming a hurricane on Monday. The cyclone's intensity is forecast to level off by Tuesday, with weakening thereafter as Kevin moves over cooler waters and continues to battle moderate shear. The latest NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous one, but remains near or slightly above the HFIP corrected consensus approach (HCCA) and IVCN aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 15.8N 108.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 15.8N 109.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 16.1N 110.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 09/1800Z 16.7N 112.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 10/0600Z 17.5N 113.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 10/1800Z 18.2N 114.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 11/0600Z 19.1N 116.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 12/0600Z 20.8N 120.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 13/0600Z 22.5N 124.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch
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