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Tropical Storm Hilda Forecast Advisory Number 23
2021-08-05 10:37:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 05 2021 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 050837 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM HILDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021 0900 UTC THU AUG 05 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 129.2W AT 05/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 129.2W AT 05/0900Z AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 128.8W FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 20.9N 130.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 21.9N 132.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 22.6N 135.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.2N 137.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N 129.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/BEVEN
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Tropical Storm Jimena Forecast Discussion Number 10
2021-08-05 10:35:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 PM HST Wed Aug 04 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 050835 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Jimena Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092021 1100 PM HST Wed Aug 04 2021 Deep convection has increased near the center of the cyclone during the last several hours, and an outer convective band is present in the southeastern semicircle. Subjective satellite intensity estimates are 35 kt from TAFB and SAB, and the CIMSS satellite consensus estimate is 39 kt. Based on these data, the system is upgraded to Tropical Storm Jimena with 35-kt winds. The initial motion is 315/6 kt. A mid-level ridge to the northeast of the tropical cyclone is forecast to continue for the next 2-3 days, and this should keep Jimena moving generally northwestward. After that time, a west-northwestward motion is expected as the weakening system is steered more by the low-level flow. The track guidance models have shifted a bit to the right since the previous advisory. Therefore, the official forecast will also be nudged to the right. However, the new forecast track still lies to the left of the consensus models. While Jimena is in a moist and low-shear environment, the storm is moving over decreasing sea surface temperatures, with the center forecast to be over 25 C water in about 24 h. Thus, little additional strengthening is expected. After 24 h, the system should weaken due to even colder SSTs and increasing shear. The new intensity forecast has only minor tweaks from the previous forecast, and it lies near the upper edge of the intensity guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 15.5N 136.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 16.2N 137.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 06/0600Z 17.1N 138.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 06/1800Z 18.0N 139.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 07/0600Z 19.0N 140.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 07/1800Z 20.0N 142.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 08/0600Z 21.0N 143.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 09/0600Z 22.0N 147.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Jimena Forecast Advisory Number 10
2021-08-05 10:34:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 05 2021 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 050834 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM JIMENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092021 0900 UTC THU AUG 05 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 136.6W AT 05/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 136.6W AT 05/0900Z AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 136.4W FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 16.2N 137.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 17.1N 138.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 18.0N 139.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 19.0N 140.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 20.0N 142.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 21.0N 143.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 22.0N 147.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 136.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Depression Nine-E Forecast Discussion Number 9
2021-08-05 04:40:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 PM HST Wed Aug 04 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 050240 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092021 500 PM HST Wed Aug 04 2021 The system has not become noticeably better organized since earlier today, with a small area of deep convection near the center and some slightly curved bands of convection well removed to the east and northeast of the center. Microwave imagery also suggests little change in structure. The current intensity is held at 30 kt for now, in agreement with earlier scatterometer observations. Although the center fixes have some scatter, my best estimate for motion is slowly northwestward, or 325/6 kt. A mid-level ridge to the northeast of the tropical cyclone is forecast to be maintained for the next 48-72 hours. This should keep the system on a generally northwestward heading until late in the forecast period. By that time, the weakening cyclone should turn a little to the left following the low-level environmental winds. The official track forecast is similar to the previous one and just to the right of the multi-model consensus, in slight deference to the GFS solution which is even farther to the right of these tracks. Since the system should be in a fairly moist, low-shear environment for the next day or so, at least some slight strengthening seems likely. Thereafter, cooler SSTs and increased shear should cause weakening. The official intensity forecast is near or above most of the model guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 15.3N 136.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 16.0N 136.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 16.9N 137.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 06/1200Z 17.8N 138.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 07/0000Z 18.8N 140.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 07/1200Z 19.8N 142.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 08/0000Z 20.5N 143.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 09/0000Z 22.0N 147.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Depression Nine-E Forecast Advisory Number 9
2021-08-05 04:38:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 05 2021 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 050238 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092021 0300 UTC THU AUG 05 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 136.2W AT 05/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 136.2W AT 05/0300Z AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 136.0W FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 16.0N 136.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 16.9N 137.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 17.8N 138.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 18.8N 140.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 19.8N 142.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 20.5N 143.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 22.0N 147.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 136.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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