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Tropical Storm Jimena Forecast Discussion Number 11
2021-08-05 16:37:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 AM HST Thu Aug 05 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 051437 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Jimena Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092021 500 AM HST Thu Aug 05 2021 Conventional satellite imagery indicates that Jimena's cloud pattern has changed little during the past several hours, although most recently, enhanced infrared images show some warming of the cloud tops just west of the center. Timely AMSR-2 and GMI passive microwave color composite images revealed a well-developed banding feature wrapping around the surface center from the north and west portions of the cyclone. The initial intensity is held at 35 kt and is in agreement with the Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. The large-scale models and the statistical-dynamical SHIPS intensity guidance (GFS/ECMWF) show that the previously noted period of conducive atmospheric and oceanic conditions should be ending soon. By the 36-hour period, sub-25C sea-surface temperatures and a gradually stabilizing/drier surrounding air mass should cause Jimena to weaken. Guidance also shows increasing west-northwesterly shear beyond 48 hours. Accordingly, the NHC forecast calls for Jimena to weaken to a depression by mid-period, and degenerate into a remnant low in 60 hours. Based on the aforementioned microwave images, the initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 315/6 kt. A subtropical ridge anchored to the northeast of the cyclone is forecast to steer Jimena toward the northwest through the 48 period. Afterward, a turn toward the west-northwest is expected as the vertically shallow system is influenced more by the easterly tradewinds. The official forecast is basically an update of the previous one and lies near the multi-model consensus (TVCN) aid. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 16.1N 137.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 16.5N 137.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 17.5N 138.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 18.5N 140.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 19.5N 141.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 08/0000Z 20.3N 142.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 08/1200Z 20.9N 144.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Depression Hilda Forecast Discussion Number 24
2021-08-05 16:34:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Thu Aug 05 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 051434 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Hilda Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 800 AM PDT Thu Aug 05 2021 After an earlier brief burst of thunderstorm activity northeast of the center around 0600Z, associated convection since then has been on a rapid decline and warming of the cloud tops which now barely reach -30 deg C near the center. The initial intensity has been lowered to 30 kt based on a blend of Dvorak T- and CI-numbers of T2.5 and T1.5 from both TAFB and SAB, and an objective satellite intensity estimate of 2.0/30 kt from UW-CIMSS ADT, making Hilda a tropical depression. Further weakening is expected now that Hilda is located over sub-23 deg C sea-surface temperatures and moving into a drier and more stable air mass. The cyclone is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low later today and open up into a trough by the weekend, well east of the Hawaiian Islands. The initial motion estimate is 305/11 kt, which is faster and a little to the right of the previous advisory motion. This is likely due to the low- and upper-level circulations having decoupled now, owing to the lack of significant convection. The weakening cyclone should be steered west-northwestward for the next 48 hours by a sprawling subtropical ridge located to the north. The new NHC forecast track is similar to the previous advisory track and lies down the middle of the tightly packed consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 21.0N 130.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 21.7N 131.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 22.5N 133.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 07/0000Z 23.2N 136.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 07/1200Z 23.9N 138.3W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Jimena Forecast Advisory Number 11
2021-08-05 16:33:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 05 2021 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 051433 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM JIMENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092021 1500 UTC THU AUG 05 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 137.2W AT 05/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 137.2W AT 05/1500Z AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 136.7W FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 16.5N 137.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 17.5N 138.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 18.5N 140.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 19.5N 141.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 20.3N 142.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 20.9N 144.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 137.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Tropical Depression Hilda Forecast Advisory Number 24
2021-08-05 16:32:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 05 2021 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 051432 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION HILDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021 1500 UTC THU AUG 05 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 130.2W AT 05/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 130.2W AT 05/1500Z AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 129.7W FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 21.7N 131.8W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.5N 133.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 23.2N 136.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 23.9N 138.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.0N 130.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Hilda Forecast Discussion Number 23
2021-08-05 10:41:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Thu Aug 05 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 050841 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Hilda Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 200 AM PDT Thu Aug 05 2021 Hilda is maintaining a small, but shrinking area of deep convection, which has rotated from the southeast to northern portion of the storm's circulation. A 0405 UTC ASCAT-A and 0522 UTC ASCAT-B pass had peak wind retrievals of 36 and 40 kt respectively, about 40 n mi northeast of Hilda's center. This scatterometer data suggests that the storm might have been stronger than estimated yesterday when the convection was more robust. However, given the warming cloud tops and shrinking area of convection since that time, the initial advisory intensity was kept at 35 kt, which still agrees with the most recent subjective Dvorak estimate from TAFB. Hilda is moving to the west-northwest at 8 kt as the tropical cyclone remains steered by a large subtropical ridge over the eastern North Pacific. As the storm becomes more shallow, its general motion should bend westward and gradually accelerate due to the influence of a large low-level ridge centered well northward. The latest track guidance is slightly more poleward early on, and the NHC track forecast was nudged a bit further north, but remains a bit south of the HFIP corrected consensus approach (HCCA). As noted previously, the GFS model forecast remains a northern outlier, with more interaction between Hilda and recently upgraded Jimena, and its solution is not favored at this time. As Hilda continues to move over increasingly cool ocean waters and into a drier and more stable environment, the remaining deep convection will likely dissipate at some point later today. Additional convective bursts thereafter will become increasingly unlikely. The latest NHC forecast expects Hilda to weaken to a tropical depression later today and become a remnant low by tomorrow. This solution is favored by most of the intensity guidance. The remnant low is then forecast to open up into a trough by the weekend, well east of the Hawaiian Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 20.1N 129.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 20.9N 130.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 06/0600Z 21.9N 132.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 06/1800Z 22.6N 135.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 07/0600Z 23.2N 137.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin/Beven
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