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Tropical Depression Nine-E Forecast Advisory Number 8

2021-08-04 22:31:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 04 2021 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 042031 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092021 2100 UTC WED AUG 04 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 135.7W AT 04/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 45SE 30SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 135.7W AT 04/2100Z AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 135.6W FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 15.6N 136.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 16.5N 136.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 17.4N 138.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 18.4N 139.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 19.5N 141.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 20.5N 142.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 21.5N 146.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 135.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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Tropical Storm Hilda Forecast Discussion Number 20

2021-08-04 16:34:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT Wed Aug 04 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 041434 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Hilda Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 800 AM PDT Wed Aug 04 2021 Hilda continues to weaken early this morning due to cool sea-surface temperatures (SST) and modest northerly vertical wind shear. The current intensity is estimated to be 35 kt based on an average of subjective satellite classifications of T2.5/35 kt from both TAFB and SAB, and objective estimates of 31 kt and 41 kt from UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON, respectively. Hilda is currently moving over sub-25C SSTs with even cooler water and increasing westerly wind shear still ahead of the cyclone. As a result of these unfavorable environmental parameters, Hilda is forecast to weaken further, becoming a depression later today and a remnant low by late tonight or early Thursday. Dissipation is expected by late Friday or Saturday well to the east of the Hawaiian Islands. The new NHC official intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and follows a blend of the HCCA and IVCN consensus intensity models. Hilda has been moving west-northwestward or 295/08 kt. This general motion should continue into Thursday. Low- to mid-level ridging to the north of Hilda is expected to gradually build westward over the next several days, forcing the cyclone and its remnants more westward on Friday and Saturday. The new NHC forecast track is essentially just an update of the previous advisory, and lies down the middle of the tightly packed consensus track models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 19.1N 127.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 19.7N 128.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 20.6N 130.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 21.5N 132.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 06/1200Z 22.2N 135.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 07/0000Z 22.7N 137.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Tropical Storm Hilda Forecast Advisory Number 20

2021-08-04 16:33:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 04 2021 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 041433 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM HILDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021 1500 UTC WED AUG 04 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 127.4W AT 04/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 127.4W AT 04/1500Z AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 127.0W FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 19.7N 128.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 20.6N 130.6W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 21.5N 132.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.2N 135.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 22.7N 137.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 127.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Tropical Storm Hilda Forecast Discussion Number 19

2021-08-04 10:47:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT Wed Aug 04 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 040847 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Hilda Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 200 AM PDT Wed Aug 04 2021 Hilda continues to weaken tonight. For a 12 h period, the low-level circulation was mostly devoid of deep convection, though recently a few convective cells are redeveloping south of the estimated center. Unfortunately, there has not been any recent scatterometer data to help determine the storm's intensity. The current initial intensity of Hilda is set to a possibly generous 40 kt for this advisory, blending the final-T numbers and current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, in addition to the most recent UW-CIMSS SATCON intensity estimate. Further weakening is forecast, as Hilda is now moving over sea-surface temperatures below 25 C, though some residual mid-level moisture may allow for sporadic convective bursts to occur for the next 24-36 hours. By 48 hours, the ECMWF, GFS, and HWRF models all agree Hilda will lose any remaining organized convection and become a remnant low, with this low opening up to a trough this weekend, well east-northeast of the Hawaiian Islands. Now that Hilda is becoming an increasingly shallow cyclone, the storm is beginning to bend slightly to the left, now moving to the west-northwest at 300/8 kt. Low- to mid-level ridging to the north and east of Hilda is expected to build in further over the next several days, and should allow the cyclone to turn a bit more westward at a slightly faster motion by the end of the forecast period. The latest NHC track forecast is very close to the previous one, and remains near the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 18.9N 126.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 19.6N 127.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 05/0600Z 20.4N 129.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 05/1800Z 21.3N 131.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 06/0600Z 22.1N 133.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 06/1800Z 22.6N 136.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin/Beven

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Tropical Storm Hilda Forecast Advisory Number 19

2021-08-04 10:39:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 04 2021 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 040839 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM HILDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021 0900 UTC WED AUG 04 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 126.6W AT 04/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 126.6W AT 04/0900Z AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 126.2W FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.6N 127.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.4N 129.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.3N 131.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.1N 133.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 22.6N 136.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 126.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/BEVEN

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