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Tropical Storm Jimena Forecast Advisory Number 13
2021-08-06 04:30:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 06 2021 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 060230 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM JIMENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092021 0300 UTC FRI AUG 06 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 137.8W AT 06/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 137.8W AT 06/0300Z AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 137.5W FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 17.5N 138.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 18.2N 140.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 18.7N 141.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 19.0N 143.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 19.4N 144.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 137.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm Jimena Forecast Discussion Number 12
2021-08-05 22:32:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 AM HST Thu Aug 05 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 052032 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Jimena Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092021 1100 AM HST Thu Aug 05 2021 Jimena's cloud pattern, which has changed little since earlier this morning, consists of a fragmented curved band in the northwestern semicircle and a patch of deep convection just to the southeast of the surface center. The subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB remain unchanged (T2.5) and the initial intensity is held at 35 kt. Jimena has about another 12 hours or so before it traverses decreasing (sub-25C) sea-surface temperatures, and the surrounding environment becomes less favorable due to an intruding dry and stable air mass. Increasing west-northwesterly shear is also expected to negatively affect the cyclone beyond the 36 hour period. The official intensity forecast, which is similar to the IVCN intensity consensus model, indicates Jimena becoming a depression in about 24 hours and further weakening to a remnant low on Saturday, and opening up into a trough of low pressure on Sunday. The initial motions is estimated to be northwest, or 310/7 kt. A mid-tropospheric ridge situated to the northeast of the cyclone should keep Jimena moving toward the northwest through the 48 period. Afterward, a turn toward the west-northwest is forecast as the vertically shallow system is steered by the low-level environmental flow. The NHC track forecast, once again, follows the TVCN consensus aid closely, and is similar to the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 16.4N 137.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 17.0N 138.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 17.9N 139.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 18.8N 141.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 19.7N 142.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 08/0600Z 20.2N 143.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Jimena Forecast Advisory Number 12
2021-08-05 22:32:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 05 2021 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 052031 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM JIMENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092021 2100 UTC THU AUG 05 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 137.6W AT 05/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 137.6W AT 05/2100Z AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 137.3W FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 17.0N 138.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 17.9N 139.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 18.8N 141.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 19.7N 142.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 20.2N 143.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 137.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Tropical Depression Hilda Forecast Discussion Number 25
2021-08-05 22:31:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Thu Aug 05 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 052031 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Hilda Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 200 PM PDT Thu Aug 05 2021 Stubborn Hilda refuses to go away. Convection has been pulsing since the previous advisory with cloud tops fluctuating between -30C and -60C in the northeastern quadrant. However, this convection hasn't mixed higher winds downward into the boundary based on a 1634Z ASCAT-A scatterometer pass, which showed 30-31-kt wind vectors north of the center and outside of the convection. The initial intensity is being maintained at 30 kt for this advisory based on the aforementioned ASCAT surface wind data. Gradual weakening should occur now that Hilda is firmly located over sub-23 deg C sea-surface temperatures and will be moving into a drier and more stable air mass. Visible satellite imagery already shows an extensive field of cold-air stratocumulus clouds being entrained into much of the low-level circulation. Hilda is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low tonight or early Friday, and open up into a trough by the weekend, well east of the Hawaiian Islands. The initial motion estimate is 300/11 kt. Hilda should continue on a west-northwestward trajectory for the next couple of days, being steered by a deep-layer subtropical ridge to the north. The latest NHC track forecast is essentially just an update of the previous advisory track, and lies down the middle of the tightly packed consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 21.5N 131.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 22.2N 132.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 23.0N 135.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 07/0600Z 23.7N 137.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 07/1800Z 24.4N 139.3W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Hilda Forecast Advisory Number 25
2021-08-05 22:30:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 05 2021 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 052030 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION HILDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021 2100 UTC THU AUG 05 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 131.2W AT 05/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 131.2W AT 05/2100Z AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 130.7W FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.2N 132.8W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 23.0N 135.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.7N 137.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 24.4N 139.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.5N 131.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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