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Tropical Storm Jimena Forecast Advisory Number 15

2021-08-06 16:36:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 06 2021 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 061436 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM JIMENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092021 1500 UTC FRI AUG 06 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 139.3W AT 06/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 45SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 139.3W AT 06/1500Z AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 139.0W FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 18.0N 140.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 18.7N 141.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 19.2N 143.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 19.5N 144.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 19.6N 146.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 139.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN/HAGEN

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Post-Tropical Cyclone Hilda Forecast Discussion Number 28

2021-08-06 16:35:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT Fri Aug 06 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 061435 TCDEP3 Post-Tropical Cyclone Hilda Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 800 AM PDT Fri Aug 06 2021 Hilda has been devoid of organized deep convection for at least 12 hours, and since the cyclone is moving over sub-23C sea surface temperatures, regeneration of deep convection is unlikely. Therefore, Hilda is designated as a 25 kt post-tropical remnant low, and this is the last advisory from National Hurricane Center. The low should continue to move further into a dry and stable air mass and over even cooler waters. Consequently, weakening is forecast and the remnant low of Hilda should open up into a trough of low pressure over the weekend. The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 300/9 kt, and this general heading, within the low-level flow, is forecast to continue until dissipation. For additional information on Hilda please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 23.1N 134.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 07/0000Z 23.6N 135.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 07/1200Z 24.1N 137.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 08/0000Z 24.5N 138.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts

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Post-Tropical Cyclone Hilda Forecast Advisory Number 28

2021-08-06 16:33:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 06 2021 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 061433 TCMEP3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HILDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021 1500 UTC FRI AUG 06 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 134.1W AT 06/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 134.1W AT 06/1500Z AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 133.7W FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 23.6N 135.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 24.1N 137.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 24.5N 138.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.1N 134.1W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON HILDA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE... UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN03 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

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Tropical Depression Hilda Forecast Discussion Number 27

2021-08-06 10:39:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT Fri Aug 06 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 060839 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Hilda Discussion Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 200 AM PDT Fri Aug 06 2021 Hilda has been reduced to a swirl of low- to mid-level clouds overnight with no organized deep convection. There has not been any recent scatterometer data to aid determining Hilda's intensity, but a blend of recent subjective and objective Dvorak intensity estimates support keeping the initial intensity at 30 kt. If Hilda fails to redevelop organized deep convection soon, an unlikely prospect since sea-surface temperatures under the depression are now around 22 C, the cyclone should soon become a remnant low, possibly as early as later this morning. Complete dissipation of the remnant low is expected by this weekend, well east of the Hawaiian Islands. The tropical depression is currently moving west-northwest at 300/10 kt. This heading is expected to continue until dissipation as the system moves along the southern periphery of a low-level ridge to its north. The latest NHC track forecast is largely an update from the previous one, though is a bit slower, following the tightly clustered track guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 22.6N 133.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 23.0N 134.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 07/0600Z 23.6N 136.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 07/1800Z 24.1N 137.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin/Beven

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Tropical Storm Jimena Forecast Discussion Number 14

2021-08-06 10:37:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1100 PM HST Thu Aug 05 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 060837 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Jimena Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092021 1100 PM HST Thu Aug 05 2021 Convection associated with Jimena has diminished some during the past few hours. However, recently-received ASCAT data showed 35 kt winds in a small area to the northwest of the center. Based mainly on this data, the initial intensity is held at 35 kt. The storm is moving over cooler sea-surface temperatures, and that, along with increasing shear and a drier airmass, should cause the cyclone to decay into a remnant low by the 36 h point. The new intensity forecast follows the trend of the guidance and has only minor adjustments from the previous forecast. The initial motion is northwestward or 310/7 kt. As Jimena weakens, the increasingly shallow system is expected to be steered by the low-level trade-wind flow, which should cause it to turn gradually to the west-northwest. The new official forecast has little change from the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 17.2N 138.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 17.8N 139.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 07/0600Z 18.5N 140.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 07/1800Z 19.0N 142.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 08/0600Z 19.3N 143.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 08/1800Z 19.5N 145.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

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