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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2021-08-07 16:52:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Aug 07 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 071451 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021 1000 AM CDT Sat Aug 07 2021 Last night's METOP-A/B scatterometer overpasses indicated that the area of low pressure located a couple hundred miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico had become a little better defined, and since that time, the system has developed sufficient organized convection to be designated as a tropical depression. The initial intensity is estimated to be 30 kt and is in agreement with the satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. Modest northeasterly shear, warm sea surface temperatures and a moist surrounding low- to mid-level environment support steady strengthening during the next few days, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm by tonight. The Statistical SHIPS (GFS/ECMWF), and the HCCA/IVCN multi-model intensity aids, all show that the cyclone will become a hurricane in about 48 hours, and the NHC forecast follows suit. The intensity forecast resembles the HCCA and IVCN intensity consensus models, and is just below the Decay SHIPS guidance. The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 275/8 kt. The depression is being steered by a mid-tropospheric ridge stretching westward over the subtropical eastern Pacific from high pressure located over the northern Gulf of Mexico. A general westward motion with a similar forward speed is expected through early next week. Through the remaining portion of the forecast, a turn toward the west-northwest to northwest is expected due to a growing weakness in the aforementioned ridge. The official forecast is based on the TVCN multi-model consensus and lies between the GFS and ECMWF global models solutions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 15.9N 105.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 15.9N 106.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 15.9N 108.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 15.9N 109.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 09/1200Z 16.2N 111.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 10/0000Z 16.8N 112.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 10/1200Z 18.0N 113.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 11/1200Z 19.9N 117.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 12/1200Z 21.7N 121.4W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2021-08-07 16:50:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 07 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 071450 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112021 1500 UTC SAT AUG 07 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 105.5W AT 07/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 105.5W AT 07/1500Z AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 105.1W FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 15.9N 106.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 15.9N 108.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 15.9N 109.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 10SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 16.2N 111.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 16.8N 112.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 18.0N 113.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 30SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 19.9N 117.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 21.7N 121.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 105.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Tropical Depression Jimena Forecast Discussion Number 16
2021-08-06 22:32:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 AM HST Fri Aug 06 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 062032 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Jimena Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092021 1100 AM HST Fri Aug 06 2021 During the last 6 hours, deep convection associated with Jimena has waned. A recently arriving 1756 UTC ASCAT pass revealed peak believable winds of around 30 kt. The latest Dvorak T- and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB have also decreased, and these data support lowering the initial intensity to 30 kt. Jimena is currently moving over SSTs near 24C and into a more stable air mass. In addition, westerly shear will increase along the cyclone's path during the next 12 hours. These factors should cause continued weakening, and Jimena is expected to degenerate into a remnant low by late tonight or early Saturday. The initial motion estimate is 295/7 kt. The west-northwestward motion is forecast to continue for another day or so, followed by a gradual bend to the west as Jimena weakens and is steered by the low-level trade wind flow. The new track forecast is slightly to the south of the previous NHC advisory, and is in best agreement with the HCCA and TVCN consensus models. Jimena is crossing into the central Pacific basin, and this will be the final NHC advisory on this system. Future information on Jimena can be found in Forecast/Advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center beginning at 0300 UTC under AWIPS header HFOTCMCP2 and WMO header WTPA22 PHFO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 17.6N 140.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 18.2N 141.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 07/1800Z 18.8N 142.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 08/0600Z 19.1N 143.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 08/1800Z 19.2N 145.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen/Brown
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Tropical Depression Jimena Forecast Advisory Number 16
2021-08-06 22:31:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 06 2021 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 062031 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JIMENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092021 2100 UTC FRI AUG 06 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 140.0W AT 06/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 140.0W AT 06/2100Z AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 139.7W FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 18.2N 141.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 18.8N 142.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 19.1N 143.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 19.2N 145.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 140.0W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON JIMENA. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN FORECAST/ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER BEGINNING AT 0300 UTC...UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCMCP2 ...WMO HEADER WTPA22 PHFO. $$ FORECASTER BROWN/HAGEN
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Tropical Storm Jimena Forecast Discussion Number 15
2021-08-06 16:37:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 AM HST Fri Aug 06 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 061437 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Jimena Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092021 500 AM HST Fri Aug 06 2021 A convective mass continues to persist over the center of Jimena, although coldest cloud tops have warmed over the past few hours. A fortuitous 1105 UTC AMSR-2 pass shows the center a bit west of the earlier estimates, which places it beneath the coldest remaining cloud tops. The intensity is held at 35 kt based on a blend of Final-T and CI numbers from TAFB, SAB and ADT. This intensity is also supported by overnight ASCAT data and a more recent ship observation. Jimena is currently moving over SSTs near 24C. Going forward, westerly shear will increase along the cyclone's path during the next 12-24 hr. These factors should cause the tropical cyclone to weaken, and Jimena is expected to degenerate into a remnant low by Saturday morning. The NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement with the SHIPS and HCCA guidance. The initial motion estimate is 300/8 kt. As Jimena weakens, the increasingly shallow system is expected to be steered by the low-level trade-wind flow, which should cause it to gradually turn toward the west in about 48 hours. The ECMWF is a little faster and lies on the southwest side of the guidance envelope, while the GFS is slower and northeast of the consensus. The NHC forecast was adjusted to the southwest of the previous forecast during the first 12-24 hours based on the farther west initial position. Thereafter, the track is close to the previous forecast, and in best agreement with the HCCA and TVCN consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 17.5N 139.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 18.0N 140.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 18.7N 141.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 08/0000Z 19.2N 143.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 08/1200Z 19.5N 144.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 09/0000Z 19.6N 146.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen/Brown
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