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Hurricane Felicia Forecast Advisory Number 8
2021-07-16 04:49:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI JUL 16 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 160249 TCMEP1 HURRICANE FELICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062021 0300 UTC FRI JUL 16 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 120.2W AT 16/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 971 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 75SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 120.2W AT 16/0300Z AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 119.8W FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 15.1N 121.3W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 14.9N 122.6W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 14.7N 124.2W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 14.7N 126.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 14.9N 127.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 15.0N 129.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 14.9N 133.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 14.5N 137.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 120.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/BLAKE
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Hurricane Felicia Forecast Discussion Number 7
2021-07-15 22:35:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Thu Jul 15 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 152035 TCDEP1 Hurricane Felicia Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021 200 PM PDT Thu Jul 15 2021 The evolution of Felicia's satellite imagery since last night suggested that an eyewall replacement cycle had occurred, and recently has completed. For the past several hours, an eye has been occasionally appearing while surrounded by cloud tops as cold as -80 degrees C. With this eye feature becoming somewhat clearer, the corresponding Dvorak-T numbers have increased. Based on a blend of these latest intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMSS ADT, the initial advisory intensity has been increased to 85 kt. Felicia continues to move west, or 270/09kt. The ridge currently to the north of the hurricane is forecast to shift the northwest of Felicia by tonight, which will force the cyclone west-southwestward for a couple of days. By early next week, the hurricane should once again become positioned to the south of the ridge, which would result in a westward motion through the end of the forecast period. The latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one, and is near the tightly clustered track guidance. The small inner-core structure of Felicia is well established, and the cyclone should remain in an environment of low shear and over warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the next 12-24 h. This should allow for some additional strengthening. By late Friday, Felicia is forecast to move into a drier airmass which may begin to disrupt the convection, while the cyclone also begins to move over slowly decreasing SSTs. This should cause the system to gradually weaken through the remainder of the forecast period. The latest NHC intensity forecast remains slightly above the bulk of the guidance through 24 h due to the aforementioned favorable conditions currently in place for strengthening. Thereafter, the forecast is close to the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach model HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 15.2N 119.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 15.1N 120.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 14.9N 122.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 17/0600Z 14.6N 123.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 17/1800Z 14.5N 125.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 18/0600Z 14.5N 127.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 18/1800Z 14.5N 128.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 19/1800Z 14.5N 132.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 20/1800Z 14.5N 136.5W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto
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Hurricane Felicia Forecast Advisory Number 7
2021-07-15 22:34:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUL 15 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 152034 TCMEP1 HURRICANE FELICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062021 2100 UTC THU JUL 15 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 119.4W AT 15/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 60SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 119.4W AT 15/2100Z AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 119.0W FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 15.1N 120.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 14.9N 122.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 14.6N 123.6W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 14.5N 125.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 14.5N 127.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 14.5N 128.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 14.5N 132.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 14.5N 136.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 119.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Hurricane Felicia Forecast Discussion Number 6
2021-07-15 16:37:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Thu Jul 15 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 151437 TCDEP1 Hurricane Felicia Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021 800 AM PDT Thu Jul 15 2021 Earlier this morning, an eye began to appear in satellite imagery. However, since that time the convection has eroded slightly over the southwestern portion of the circulation, making that feature somewhat obscured. This could be a sign that an eyewall replacement cycle (ERC) is underway. Although the eye is not readily apparent in satellite, Felicia has a well-defined inner core structure with persistent and very cold cloud tops surrounding much of the center. The Dvorak T-numbers continue to rise, and the latest blend of the available values from TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMSS ADT support increasing the initial intensity to 80 kt for this advisory. Felicia continues to make a gradual turn to the left, and the initial motion is now 270/10 kt. The ridge currently to the north of the hurricane is foreast to shift to its northwest over the next day or so, which will force the cyclone west-southwestward for a couple of days. By early next week, Felicia should once again become positioned to the south of the ridge, which would result in a westward motion through the end of the forecast period. The latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one, and is near the tightly clustered track guidance. Rapid intensification (RI) has continued, and Felicia's winds have increased by 50 kt since early yesterday morning. Aside from a possible pause in the cyclone's intensification in the near-term due to the ERC, the environment of low shear and warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) that have been supporting the strengthening should continue around the cyclone over the next 24 h. By late Friday, Felicia is forecast to move into a drier airmass which may begin to disrupt the convection, while the cyclone also begins to move over slowly decreasing SSTs. This should cause the system to gradually weaken through the remainder of the forecast period. The latest NHC intensity forecast is slightly above the bulk of the guidance through 24 h due to the RI factors currently in place. Thereafter, the forecast is close to the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach model HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 15.2N 118.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 15.3N 119.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 15.1N 121.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 14.8N 123.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 17/1200Z 14.6N 124.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 18/0000Z 14.4N 126.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 18/1200Z 14.4N 128.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 19/1200Z 14.5N 132.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 20/1200Z 14.5N 136.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto
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Hurricane Felicia Forecast Advisory Number 6
2021-07-15 16:36:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUL 15 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 151436 TCMEP1 HURRICANE FELICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062021 1500 UTC THU JUL 15 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 118.6W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 45SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 118.6W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 118.2W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 15.3N 119.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 15.1N 121.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 14.8N 123.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 14.6N 124.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 14.4N 126.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 14.4N 128.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 14.5N 132.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 14.5N 136.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 118.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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