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Tropical Storm Felicia Forecast Discussion Number 2

2021-07-14 16:50:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 AM MDT Wed Jul 14 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 141450 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Felicia Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021 900 AM MDT Wed Jul 14 2021 Recent satellite data indicate that the tropical cyclone has continued to organize this morning. An AMSR2 microwave pass around 0900 UTC revealed a well-defined banding feature that wrapped more than half-way around the center and early-light visible images show a developing CDO with the center located beneath the eastern portion of the cold cloud tops. Based on Dvorak T-numbers of 3.0 and 2.5 from TAFB and SAB, respectively, the initial intensity was increased to 40 kt on a Tropical Cyclone Update issued at 1315 UTC. With the continued increase in organization, the advisory intensity has been raised to 45 kt. Felicia is located over warm SSTs and in an area of low vertical wind shear. Given the recent development of a small inner-core, it seems likely that Felicia will continue to strengthen during the next couple of days. The only caveat appears to be nearby dry air that could get entrained into the circulation of the relatively small tropical cyclone and cause some disruptions in the intensification process. Although most of the intensity guidance is not extremely bullish and the rapid intensification probabilities are not particularly high, the NHC forecast predicts steady strengthening and brings Felicia to hurricane status within 24 hours. The NHC wind speed forecast is in best agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus model, which is at the upper-end of the guidance. The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward or 285/13 kt. A mid-level ridge to the north of Felicia should steer the storm west-northwestward to westward during the next 12-24 h. After that time, the orientation of the ridge shifts slightly which is expected to cause Felicia to turn west-southwestward with some decrease in forward speed during the middle portion of the forecast period. The dynamical model guidance is in reasonably good agreement, and the NHC forecast lies near the TVCE consensus aid. The guidance envelope did shift a little southward from the previous cycle, and the new NHC forecast has been modified accordingly. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 14.3N 114.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 14.9N 115.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 15.4N 117.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 15.5N 119.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 16/1200Z 15.3N 120.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 17/0000Z 15.0N 122.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 17/1200Z 14.9N 124.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 18/1200Z 14.9N 127.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 19/1200Z 14.8N 132.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Storm Felicia Forecast Advisory Number 2

2021-07-14 16:45:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUL 14 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 141445 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM FELICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062021 1500 UTC WED JUL 14 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 114.1W AT 14/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 114.1W AT 14/1500Z AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 113.4W FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 14.9N 115.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 15.4N 117.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 15.5N 119.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 15.3N 120.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 15.0N 122.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 14.9N 124.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 14.9N 127.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 14.8N 132.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 114.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Tropical Depression Six-E Forecast Discussion Number 1

2021-07-14 10:35:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 300 AM MDT Wed Jul 14 2021 129 WTPZ41 KNHC 140835 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Six-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021 300 AM MDT Wed Jul 14 2021 Satellite imagery indicates that convection associated with the low pressure area several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continue to become better organized, with banding near and west of the low-level center. In addition, recent scatterometer data shows that the circulation has become better better defined. Based on this, advisories are initiated on Tropical Depression Six-E. The initial intensity is set to 30 kt based on reliable-looking scatterometer winds and satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. The initial motion is 295/15. A low- to mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone should steer it west-northwestward for the next 36 h or so, followed by a turn toward the west. Some decrease in the forward speed is likely, especially around 72-96 h when a mid- to upper-level trough north of the cyclone temporarily weakens the ridge. The forecast track guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, and the forecast track is in the center of the guidance envelope close to the consensus models. The cyclone is expected to be in an environment of light vertical wind shear through the forecast period. However, the sea surface temperatures along the forecast track cool through 96 h, and the system is expected to move into a dryer air mass. The intensity guidance generally forecasts the cyclone to reach its peak intensity in 48-72 h followed by weakening, and the intensity forecast follows the general trend of the guidance. The forecast peak intensity of 65 kt is near the upper edge of the intensity guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 14.2N 112.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 14.9N 114.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 15.5N 117.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 15/1800Z 15.8N 119.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 16/0600Z 15.7N 120.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 16/1800Z 15.6N 121.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 17/0600Z 15.5N 123.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 18/0600Z 15.5N 126.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 19/0600Z 15.5N 131.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven

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Tropical Depression Six-E Forecast Advisory Number 1

2021-07-14 10:34:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUL 14 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 140834 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062021 0900 UTC WED JUL 14 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 112.8W AT 14/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 112.8W AT 14/0900Z AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 112.2W FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 14.9N 114.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 15.5N 117.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 15.8N 119.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 15.7N 120.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 15.6N 121.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 15.5N 123.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 15.5N 126.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 15.5N 131.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 112.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Post-Tropical Cyclone Elsa Forecast Discussion Number 39

2021-07-09 22:42:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Jul 09 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 092042 TCDAT5 Post-Tropical Cyclone Elsa Discussion Number 39 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 500 PM AST Fri Jul 09 2021 Surface, satellite, and radar data indicate that Elsa's deep convection remains limited to a shield north of its center and that a front extends through the center of the cyclone. For those reasons, Elsa was designated as a post-tropical cyclone at 1800 UTC. Surface observations of sustained winds a little above 40 kt were reported across portions of southern Massachusetts and the nearby waters as Elsa crossed the state, so the intensity estimate remains 45 kt. Elsa is moving quickly just off the northeast coast of the U.S. with an initial motion estimate of 040/27 kt. A faster northeastward motion is expected tonight and on Saturday while the system remains embedded within a deep mid-latitude trough. Very little change was made to the NHC track forecast. All available guidance indicates that Elsa will gradually weaken during the next couple of days. The GFS, ECMWF, and CMC global models now indicate the cyclone will open into a trough within the next 48 h or so, and this is reflected in the NHC forecast. It is estimated that center of Elsa made landfall along the coast of Long Island near Southampton around 1430 UTC (10:30 am EDT), and again near Watch Hill, Rhode Island near 1615 UTC (12:15 pm EDT). Elsa's classification at the time the center crossed the coast will be determined in the post-storm analysis. It should also be noted that the landfall position had little bearing on the location or timing of the strong winds and heavy rain which were well removed from the cyclone's center. Since Elsa is now post-tropical and all coastal tropical storm warnings have been discontinued, this is the last NHC advisory. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php Key Messages: 1. As Elsa moves off the coast of Maine through this evening, heavy rainfall could lead to considerable flash and urban flooding. 2. Gusty winds will continue across portions of the southern New England coast during the next couple of hours. The post-tropical cyclone is also expected to bring gusty winds to portions of Atlantic Canada tonight and Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 43.0N 69.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 10/0600Z 46.2N 64.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 10/1800Z 50.3N 56.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 11/0600Z 54.7N 46.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

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