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Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Discussion Number 36
2021-07-09 04:35:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Thu Jul 08 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 090235 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 36 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 1100 PM EDT Thu Jul 08 2021 Elsa has become slightly better organized this evening. Convection near the center of Elsa has deepened, and the surface pressures have fallen a few mb since this afternoon based on observations over eastern Virginia. Although there are no wind reports above 40 kt during the past several hours, recent Doppler velocity data shows stronger winds offshore of the mid-Atlantic states, so the initial wind speed will remain 45 kt. It appears that the early stages of extratropical transition have begun with Elsa, with almost all of the deep convection north of the center. A shortwave moving out of the Great Lakes should cause the storm to deepen on Friday but also expand in size, resulting in the maximum winds staying about the same as they are now. Elsa should transition into an extratropical cyclone within 24 hours due to the shortwave and cold waters south of New England, and then gradually weaken over Atlantic Canada and northeast of Newfoundland after it loses its baroclinic support. The new intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and the consensus of the global models. The storm is moving faster to the northeast this evening and will gradually accelerate northeastward during the next day or two due to speedy mid-latitude southwesterly flow ahead of a broad mid-tropospheric trough over the eastern North America. Elsa should move over southeastern New England and Atlantic Canada within the next 12-36 hours. The model guidance remains tightly packed on that solution, and the new official track forecast remains close to the previous one. Key Messages: 1. As Elsa moves across the eastern mid-Atlantic overnight, heavy rainfall may result in limited flash and urban flooding. Heavy rainfall across New England through Friday could lead to considerable flash and urban flooding. 2. Tropical storm conditions should continue along portions of the mid-Atlantic coast overnight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the southern New England states and New York by Friday. Gusty winds are expected over portions of Atlantic Canada Friday night and Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 37.6N 76.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 12H 09/1200Z 40.5N 72.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 24H 10/0000Z 44.6N 66.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 10/1200Z 49.4N 59.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 11/0000Z 54.5N 48.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 11/1200Z 58.5N 40.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Advisory Number 36
2021-07-09 04:33:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI JUL 09 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 090233 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 36 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 0300 UTC FRI JUL 09 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM SURF CITY...NORTH CAROLINA TO OCRACOKE INLET...NORTH CAROLINA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * OCRACOKE INLET...NORTH CAROLINA TO SANDY HOOK...NEW JERSEY * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS * CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NORTH BEACH AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC SOUTH OF COBB ISLAND * DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH * LONG ISLAND FROM EAST ROCKAWAY INLET TO THE EASTERN TIP ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE AND FROM PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR EASTWARD ON THE NORTH SHORE * NEW HAVEN...CONNECTICUT TO MERRIMACK RIVER...MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING CAPE COD...BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHA'S VINEYARD...AND NANTUCKET A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. FOR INFORMATION ON WIND HAZARDS NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.6N 76.5W AT 09/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 22 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 140SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 180SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.6N 76.5W AT 09/0300Z AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.9N 77.3W FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 40.5N 72.7W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 44.6N 66.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 49.4N 59.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 150SE 90SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 54.5N 48.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 58.5N 40.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.6N 76.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 09/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Discussion Number 35
2021-07-08 22:56:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Thu Jul 08 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 082056 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 35 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 500 PM EDT Thu Jul 08 2021 A NOAA NOS observing site at Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina, recently reported a sustained wind of 41 kt, so Elsa's maximum winds are now estimated to be 45 kt. A number of other observing sites in the vicinity have also reported sustained tropical-storm-force winds. Elsa's slight strengthening may be the result of baroclinic forcing associated with an approaching short-wave trough. The system's cloud tops have warmed somewhat during the day, but it is still producing some very heavy rains. Elsa's low-level center is a bit elongated from southwest to northeast, but surface synoptic data indicate that it has moved into northern North Carolina. The storm continues to gradually accelerate toward the northeast, and the initial motion estimate is 040/18 kt. A faster northeastward motion is expected over the next 1-2 days as the cyclone moves along with the mid-latitude southwesterly flow ahead of a broad mid-tropospheric trough over the eastern United States and Canada. Elsa should move near or over southeastern New England and Atlantic Canada within the next 24-48 hours. The official track forecast remains close to the previous one and similar to the multi-model consensus, TVCA. The global models suggest that not much additional strengthening is likely. Simulated satellite imagery from these models show an extratropical appearance in 24-36 hours so the official forecast shows an extratropical transition by late Friday. This is also supported by cyclone phase analyses of the model fields from Florida State University. Key Messages: 1.As Elsa moves from North Carolina to Virginia today and this evening, heavy rainfall may result in limited flash and urban flooding. Heavy rainfall from the Mid-Atlantic into New England through Friday could lead to considerable flash and urban flooding. 2. Tropical storm conditions should continue along portions of the North Carolina coast this afternoon and spread over the mid-Atlantic coast later today or tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the southern New England states and New York by Friday. Gusty winds are expected over portions of Atlantic Canada Friday night and Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 36.3N 78.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 12H 09/0600Z 38.7N 75.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 24H 09/1800Z 42.5N 70.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 10/0600Z 47.0N 63.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 10/1800Z 51.5N 54.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 11/0600Z 56.0N 45.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Advisory Number 35
2021-07-08 22:36:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUL 08 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 082036 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 2100 UTC THU JUL 08 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LITTLE RIVER INLET...SOUTH CAROLINA...TO SANDY HOOK...NEW JERSEY * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS * CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NORTH BEACH AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC SOUTH OF COBB ISLAND * DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH * LONG ISLAND FROM EAST ROCKAWAY INLET TO THE EASTERN TIP ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE AND FROM PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR EASTWARD ON THE NORTH SHORE * NEW HAVEN...CONNECTICUT TO MERRIMACK RIVER...MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING CAPE COD...BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHA'S VINEYARD...AND NANTUCKET A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. FOR INFORMATION ON WIND HAZARDS NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.3N 78.3W AT 08/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 140SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.3N 78.3W AT 08/2100Z AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.5N 79.1W FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 38.7N 75.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 42.5N 70.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 47.0N 63.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 51.5N 54.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 150SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 56.0N 45.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 120SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.3N 78.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 09/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Discussion Number 34
2021-07-08 16:58:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Thu Jul 08 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 081458 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 1100 AM EDT Thu Jul 08 2021 Surface synoptic observations and high-resolution satellite images indicate that the center of the storm has moved into North Carolina. WSR 88-D Doppler radar data and surface reports indicate that the maximum winds are near 40 kt. These highest winds are likely occurring in some of the stronger convective bands near the coast. Elsa is gradually accelerating toward the northeast, and the initial motion is about 040/17 kt. A faster northeastward motion is expected over the next couple of days as the cyclone becomes entrained into the mid-latitude southwesterly flow ahead of a broad mid-tropospheric trough over the eastern United States and Canada. Elsa should move near or over southeastern New England and Atlantic Canada during the next 24-48 hours. The official track forecast is basically an update of the previous one and continues to follow the multi-model consensus. Some slight intensification is possible within the next 24-36 hours due to baroclinic forcing from a mid-latitude short wave trough. Around 36 hours, the simulated satellite imagery from the global models depicts a cloud pattern resembling that of a frontal cyclone. Moreover, the FSU phase analyses of the GFS fields shows the system becoming extratropical at that time. This is also reflected in the official forecast. Key Messages: 1. As Elsa moves across North Carolina and Virginia today, heavy rainfall may result in limited flash and urban flooding. Heavy rainfall from the Mid-Atlantic into New England through Friday could lead to considerable flash and urban flooding. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the North Carolina coast today and the mid-Atlantic coast by this afternoon or tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the southern New England states and New York by Friday. Gusty winds are expected over portions of Atlantic Canada Friday night and Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 35.0N 79.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 37.3N 77.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 24H 09/1200Z 40.6N 72.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 10/0000Z 44.5N 67.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 10/1200Z 49.0N 59.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 11/0000Z 53.5N 50.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 11/1200Z 59.0N 40.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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