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Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Discussion Number 31

2021-07-07 22:57:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM EDT Wed Jul 07 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 072057 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 500 PM EDT Wed Jul 07 2021 Surface synoptic data indicate that the center of Elsa has moved into extreme southern Georgia and, assuming continued weakening since earlier today, the maximum winds are estimated to be 40 kt. This may be a generous estimate of the current intensity since no surface observations of sustained tropical-storm-force winds have been recently received. Elsa should weaken into a tropical depression on Thursday. By early Friday, the dynamical models show some restrengthening of the cyclone as it moves along the Mid-Atlantic coastline. However, the simulated satellite imagery from the global models at that time depict the system resembling a frontal cyclone, so it is dubious as to whether Elsa will be completely tropical in 48 hours. Due to the uncertainty as to when extratropical transition will occur, tropical storm watches have been issued for Long Island and portions of southern New England at this time. The initial motion is northward, or 010/12 kt. Elsa is forecast to turn north-northeastward overnight as it moves around the northwestern periphery of an Atlantic subtropical ridge while accelerating northeastward ahead of a broad mid-level trough over the eastern United States and Canada on Thursday. The official forecast is about the same as the previous one and closely follows the multi-model consensus. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall may result in considerable flash, urban, and isolated moderate river flooding over northern Florida. Heavy rainfall across southeast Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, and southeastern Virginia may result inconsiderable flash and urban flooding across southeast Georgia and the Lowcountry of South Carolina. Heavy rainfall across the Northeast and New England Thursday and Friday could lead to isolated flash and urban flooding. 2. Although the center of Elsa is expected to remain inland of the coastline from Georgia through the Carolinas during the next day or two, tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina tonight. Tropical storm conditions are also possible along the coast of the mid-Atlantic and southern New England states by Thursday night or Friday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 30.8N 83.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 12H 08/0600Z 32.8N 82.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 08/1800Z 35.6N 79.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 09/0600Z 38.8N 75.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 09/1800Z 42.0N 70.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 60H 10/0600Z 46.0N 64.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 10/1800Z 50.0N 57.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Advisory Number 31

2021-07-07 22:56:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC WED JUL 07 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 072056 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 2100 UTC WED JUL 07 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LONG ISLAND FROM EAST ROCKAWAY INLET TO THE EASTERN TIP ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE AND FROM PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR TO THE EASTERN TIP ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM NEW HAVEN...CONNECTICUT TO SAGAMORE BEACH...MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING CAPE COD...BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHA'S VINEYARD...AND NANTUCKET. ALL WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED ALONG THE FLORIDA GULF COAST. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF ST. MARYS RIVER...GEORGIA TO LITTLE RIVER INLET...SOUTH CAROLINA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET...SOUTH CAROLINA TO SANDY HOOK...NEW JERSEY * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS * CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NORTH BEACH AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC SOUTH OF COBB ISLAND * DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH * LONG ISLAND FROM EAST ROCKAWAY INLET TO THE EASTERN TIP ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE AND FROM PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR EASTWARD ON THE NORTH SHORE * NEW HAVEN...CONNECTICUT TO SAGAMORE BEACH...MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING CAPE COD...BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHA'S VINEYARD...AND NANTUCKET. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ELSA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 83.4W AT 07/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 83.4W AT 07/2100Z AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.3N 83.5W FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 32.8N 82.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 35.6N 79.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 38.8N 75.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 140SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 42.0N 70.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 140SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 46.0N 64.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 140SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 50.0N 57.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 120SE 60SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.8N 83.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 08/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Discussion Number 30

2021-07-07 17:04:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Wed Jul 07 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 071503 CCA TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 30...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 1100 AM EDT Wed Jul 07 2021 Corrected Taylor County to Dixie County in the first paragraph. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft has made several fixes in Elsa this morning, and recent observations from the plane indicated that the center is now on the coast making landfall. The aircraft found that the central pressure remained about steady with maximum winds of 55 kts up to landfall. Sustained tropical-storm-force winds are being reported from observing sites within the warning area, with an unofficial report of a sustained wind of 54 kt gusting to 62 kt at Horseshoe Beach in Dixie County, Florida during the past half hour. Center fixes indicate that Elsa has continued northward, with a motion estimate of 360/12 kt. Elsa should turn toward the north-northeast today as it moves along the northwestern periphery of an Atlantic subtropical ridge. On Thursday, the cyclone should begin to accelerate northeastward on the southeast side of a broad mid-tropospheric trough over the eastern United States and Canada. The official track forecast is on top of the latest multi-model consensus, TVCA, solution. This is only slightly to left of the previous NHC track, and shows the center moving near the northeastern U.S. coast within the next 48 hours. Weakening will occur while the cyclone moves over land during the next 36 hours or so, and the official intensity forecast closely resembles the decay-SHIPS guidance. Since winds of 35 kt are possible near the coast well to the southeast of the center within the next day or two, a tropical storm warning is in effect for a portion of the southeast U.S. coast. Some slight reintensification is shown when the center moves near the coast in 48-60 hours. However, since the water temperatures are rather cool near the northeast coast, strengthening will probably be influenced by baroclinic forcing associated with a 500 mb shortwave trough. The system will likely become extratropical by 72 hours if not sooner while it moves through Atlantic Canada. Key Messages: 1. As Elsa moves across the western and northern Florida Peninsula today, heavy rainfall may result in considerable flash, urban, and isolated moderate river flooding. Heavy rainfall across southeast Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, and southeastern Virginia may result in isolated flash and urban flooding, with considerable flash and urban flooding possible across southeast Georgia and the Lowcountry of South Carolina. Heavy rainfall across the Northeast and New England Thursday and Friday could lead to isolated flash and urban flooding. 2. There is still a danger of life-threatening storm surge along portions of the west coast of Florida today, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for that area. 3. Tropical storm conditions wile continue today across portions of the northeast Gulf coast today within the warning area. 4. Although the center of Elsa is expected to remain inland of the coastline from Georgia through the Carolinas during the next day or two, tropical storm conditions are expected along much of the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina. Tropical storm conditions are also possible along the coast of the mid-Atlantic states by Thursday night or Friday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 29.9N 83.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 31.7N 82.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 08/1200Z 34.3N 80.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 09/0000Z 37.3N 77.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 09/1200Z 40.6N 73.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...NEAR COAST 60H 10/0000Z 44.5N 68.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...NEAR COAST 72H 10/1200Z 49.0N 60.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 11/1200Z 58.0N 47.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Advisory Number 30

2021-07-07 16:59:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUL 07 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 071459 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 1500 UTC WED JUL 07 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... ALL WARNINGS SOUTH OF ARIPEKA...FLORIDA...HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE HURRICANE WARNING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. THE STORM SURGE WATCH FOR THE FLORIDA GULF COAST HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TO SANDY HOOK...NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NORTH BEACH...THE TIDAL POTOMAC SOUTH OF COBB ISLAND...AND DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM ARIPEKA TO THE AUCILLA RIVER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM ARIPEKA TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER * MOUTH OF ST. MARYS RIVER...GEORGIA TO LITTLE RIVER INLET...SOUTH CAROLINA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET...SOUTH CAROLINA TO SANDY HOOK...NEW JERSEY * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS * CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NORTH BEACH AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC SOUTH OF COBB ISLAND * DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ELSA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 83.6W AT 07/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 80SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 83.6W AT 07/1500Z AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 83.6W FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 31.7N 82.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 95SE 20SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 34.3N 80.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 37.3N 77.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 40.6N 73.3W...NEAR COAST MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 140SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 44.5N 68.0W...NEAR COAST MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 140SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 49.0N 60.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 120SE 60SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 58.0N 47.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.9N 83.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 07/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Discussion Number 29

2021-07-07 11:06:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM EDT Wed Jul 07 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 070906 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 500 AM EDT Wed Jul 07 2021 The central convection associated with Elsa dissipated for a time earlier this morning, although the latest radar and satellite imagery shows a new band forming in the northern semicircle. This decrease was likely caused by a combination of shear and dry air entrainment, and it has caused the cyclone to weaken. Aircraft and surface observations indicate the central pressure has risen to near 1004 mb, and the initial intensity is decreased to a possibly generous 55 kt based on aircraft and Doppler radar data. After a slight jog to the left, the storm has resumed a motion of 360/12. This motion should continue for the next 12 h or so until landfall occurs across the northwestern Florida peninsula. Thereafter, a gradual turn toward the north-northeast is expected by, followed by acceleration toward the northeast as Elsa moves into the mid-latitude westerlies. The forecast guidance has shifted a little to the left since the last advisory, and the new forecast track is also nudged in that direction. The new track lies a little to the right of the various consensus models. While little change in strength is forecast before landfall, there is a chance that the new convection could cause a short-lived re-intensification. So, based on this possibility a hurricane warning remains in effect for portions of the west coast of Florida. After landfall, Elsa should weaken as it crosses the southeastern United States, followed by some re-intensification as it accelerates back over the Atlantic. The system is expected to become extratropical by the time it reaches the Canadian Maritimes in 72 h. The new intensity forecast is at the upper edge of the guidance envelope and has only minor adjustments from the previous forecast. Key Messages: 1. As Elsa moves across the western and northern Florida Peninsula today, heavy rainfall may result in considerable flash, urban, and isolated moderate river flooding. Heavy rainfall across southeast Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, and southeastern Virginia may result in isolated flash and urban flooding, with considerable flash and urban flooding possible across coastal Georgia and the Lowcountry of South Carolina. Heavy rainfall across the Northeast and New England Thursday and Friday could lead to isolated flash and urban flooding. 2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along portions of the west coast of Florida today, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for that area. 3. Hurricane conditions are possible during the next several hours along a portion of the west coast of Florida, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are occurring across portions of the western Florida peninsula and will continue to spread northward along the west coast of the state within the warning area through today. 4. Although the center of Elsa is expected to remain inland of the coastline from Georgia through the Carolinas during the next day or two, tropical storm conditions are expected along much of the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina. Tropical storm conditions are also possible along the coast of the mid-Atlantic state by Thursday night or Friday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 28.5N 83.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 30.2N 83.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 32.6N 82.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 08/1800Z 35.3N 79.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 09/0600Z 38.1N 75.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 60H 09/1800Z 41.5N 70.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 10/0600Z 45.6N 64.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 11/0600Z 54.0N 50.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

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