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Tropical Storm Guillermo Forecast Advisory Number 7

2021-07-19 04:33:39| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 0300 UTC MON JUL 19 2021

Hurricane Felicia Forecast Discussion Number 20

2021-07-19 04:32:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 500 PM HST Sun Jul 18 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 190232 TCDEP1 Hurricane Felicia Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021 500 PM HST Sun Jul 18 2021 Felicia continues to decline over water temperatures near or just below 26C. The eye is gradually becoming more difficult to locate in satellite imagery, and the CDO, while already small to begin with, has shrunk in size over the past several hours. A blend of the latest Dvorak T- and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB suggest that the hurricane has weakened to 90 kt. However, given that environment is not too hostile at the moment, is it reasonable to believe that the vortex of this mature tropical cyclone will take time to spin down despite the degradation in satellite images. Therefore, the initial intensity is being lowered to a perhaps generous 95 kt for this advisory. The cooler waters alone should continue to take a toll on Felicia over the next couple of days by gradually eroding the deep convection. After 48 h, increasing northwesterly shear should help to inject dry and stable air into what remains of the core of the cyclone. By 96 h, if not sooner, Felicia is expected to have lost all of its deep convection and decay into a remnant low. The latest NHC intensity forecast has been lowered from the previous one through the first few days of the forecast period due to the rapidly decreasing wind speeds, and is near the ICON intensity consensus model. Thereafter, the NHC intensity forecast is little changed from the previous one. Felicia continues its 10-kt west-northwestward trek to the south of a subtropical ridge. There is no change to the track forecast reasoning. Model guidance is in good agreement on the cyclone turning westward by Monday then perhaps west-southwestward later in the forecast period as the ridge expands and becomes oriented NE-SW. The NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one, and lies in the middle of the consensus guidance. Based on this track, Felicia should cross over into the central Pacific basin Tuesday night. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 16.3N 130.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 16.4N 131.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 20/0000Z 16.5N 133.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 20/1200Z 16.3N 136.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 21/0000Z 15.8N 138.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 21/1200Z 15.3N 141.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 22/0000Z 14.9N 144.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 23/0000Z 14.1N 149.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 24/0000Z 13.3N 155.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Latto

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Hurricane Felicia Forecast Advisory Number 20

2021-07-19 04:31:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC MON JUL 19 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 190231 TCMEP1 HURRICANE FELICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062021 0300 UTC MON JUL 19 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 130.1W AT 19/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 971 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 130.1W AT 19/0300Z AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 129.6W FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.4N 131.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 16.5N 133.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 16.3N 136.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 15.8N 138.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 15.3N 141.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 14.9N 144.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 14.1N 149.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 13.3N 155.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 130.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO

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Tropical Storm Guillermo Forecast Information (.shp)

2021-07-18 22:36:47| Tropical Depression LIDIA

GIS Data last updated Sun, 18 Jul 2021 20:36:47 GMT

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Hurricane Felicia Forecast Advisory Number 19

2021-07-18 22:33:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUL 18 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 182033 TCMEP1 HURRICANE FELICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062021 2100 UTC SUN JUL 18 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 129.0W AT 18/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 961 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 129.0W AT 18/2100Z AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 128.5W FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 16.3N 130.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.5N 132.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 16.3N 134.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 5SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 16.0N 137.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 15.6N 140.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 15.0N 142.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 14.2N 148.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 13.5N 154.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 129.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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