Home › forecast
 

Keywords :   


Tag: forecast

Hurricane Felicia Forecast Discussion Number 21

2021-07-19 10:39:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1100 PM HST Sun Jul 18 2021 956 WTPZ41 KNHC 190839 TCDEP1 Hurricane Felicia Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021 1100 PM HST Sun Jul 18 2021 Felicia continues to rapidly weaken tonight. The eye is no longer visible in satellite imagery, and the low-level center is embedded underneath a small central dense overcast. Recent SSMIS and GMI microwave imagery reveal the hurricane no longer has a well-defined eyewall, with a lack of deep convection noted in the southern portion of the compact circulation. A blend of the objective UW-CIMSS ADT and subjective Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB supports lowering the initial intensity to 85 kt with this advisory. Steady to rapid weakening is expected to continue over the next couple of days as Felicia moves over decreasing SSTs and into an environment with increasing vertical wind shear. The combination of this shear and entrainment of drier mid-level air into the inner core of Felicia should disrupt the small cyclone's ability to maintain its convective organization. The official NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and shows steady weakening that generally follows the IVCN consensus aid. GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery indicate that Felicia could lose all deep, organized convection as early as Wednesday, when the northwesterly shear strengthens to 30-40 kt over the cyclone. Recent scatterometer and microwave data indicate Felicia has begun turning more westward, and its initial motion is estimated to be 280/10 kt. A westward to west-southwestward motion is forecast during the next several days as the cyclone moves around a subtropical ridge that extends across the central Pacific. The track guidance remains tightly clustered and the official NHC track forecast is largely unchanged, with only a slight southward adjustment that follows the latest multi-model consensus. Based on this forecast, Felicia is expected to cross over into the central Pacific basin on Tuesday night. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 16.4N 131.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 16.3N 132.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 20/0600Z 16.2N 134.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 20/1800Z 15.8N 137.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 21/0600Z 15.3N 140.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 21/1800Z 14.9N 143.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 22/0600Z 14.4N 146.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 23/0600Z 14.0N 151.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 24/0600Z 13.5N 157.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch

Tags: number discussion forecast hurricane

 

Tropical Storm Guillermo Forecast Discussion Number 8

2021-07-19 10:38:17| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 1100 PM HST Sun Jul 18 2021

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

 
 

Hurricane Felicia Forecast Advisory Number 21

2021-07-19 10:38:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC MON JUL 19 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 190838 TCMEP1 HURRICANE FELICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062021 0900 UTC MON JUL 19 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 131.0W AT 19/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 60SE 30SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 131.0W AT 19/0900Z AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 130.5W FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.3N 132.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 16.2N 134.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 15.8N 137.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 15.3N 140.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 14.9N 143.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 14.4N 146.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 14.0N 151.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 13.5N 157.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 131.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/PASCH

Tags: number advisory forecast hurricane

 

Tropical Storm Guillermo Forecast Advisory Number 8

2021-07-19 10:37:17| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 0900 UTC MON JUL 19 2021

Tags: number storm advisory tropical

 

Tropical Storm Guillermo Forecast Information (.shp)

2021-07-19 04:36:17| Tropical Depression LIDIA

GIS Data last updated Mon, 19 Jul 2021 02:36:17 GMT

Tags: information storm tropical forecast

 

Sites : [191] [192] [193] [194] [195] [196] [197] [198] [199] [200] [201] [202] [203] [204] [205] [206] [207] [208] [209] [210] next »