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Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Advisory Number 34
2021-07-08 16:55:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUL 08 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 081455 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 1500 UTC THU JUL 08 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH SANTEE RIVER...SOUTH CAROLINA...TO SANDY HOOK...NEW JERSEY * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS * CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NORTH BEACH AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC SOUTH OF COBB ISLAND * DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH * LONG ISLAND FROM EAST ROCKAWAY INLET TO THE EASTERN TIP ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE AND FROM PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR EASTWARD ON THE NORTH SHORE * NEW HAVEN...CONNECTICUT TO MERRIMACK RIVER...MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING CAPE COD...BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHA'S VINEYARD...AND NANTUCKET A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.0N 79.7W AT 08/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.0N 79.7W AT 08/1500Z AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.2N 80.5W FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 37.3N 77.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 130SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 40.6N 72.5W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 140SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 44.5N 67.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 140SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 49.0N 59.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 140SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 53.5N 50.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 120SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 59.0N 40.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 150SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.0N 79.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 08/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Advisory Number 33
2021-07-08 11:11:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU JUL 08 2021 266 WTNT25 KNHC 080910 CCA TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 0900 UTC THU JUL 08 2021 CORRECTED WARNING SECTION CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT NORTH OF GREAT EGG INLET... NEW JERSEY TO SANDY HOOK...NEW JERSEY...AND FOR THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND FROM EAST ROCKAWAY INLET TO THE EASTERN TIP ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE AND FROM PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR EASTWARD ON THE NORTH SHORE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM NEW HAVEN... CONNECTICUT TO MERRIMACK RIVER...MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING CAPE COD...BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHA'S VINEYARD...AND NANTUCKET. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA TO SANDY HOOK...NEW JERSEY * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS * CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NORTH BEACH AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC SOUTH OF COBB ISLAND * DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH * LONG ISLAND FROM EAST ROCKAWAY INLET TO THE EASTERN TIP ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE AND FROM PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR EASTWARD ON THE NORTH SHORE * NEW HAVEN...CONNECTICUT TO MERRIMACK RIVER...MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING CAPE COD...BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHA'S VINEYARD...AND NANTUCKET A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ELSA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.4N 81.3W AT 08/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.4N 81.3W AT 08/0900Z...INLAND AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.7N 82.0W...INLAND FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 35.5N 79.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 38.8N 75.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 130SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 42.5N 70.1W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 140SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 46.9N 63.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 140SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 51.9N 54.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 120SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 56.6N 44.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 150SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.4N 81.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 08/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Discussion Number 33
2021-07-08 11:01:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Thu Jul 08 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 080901 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 500 AM EDT Thu Jul 08 2021 Doppler radar and surface observation indicate that the center of Elsa is moving into southern South Carolina at this time. The organization of the storm has changed little during the past several hours, with a complex of bands in the eastern semicircle. The initial intensity is 35 kt, and these winds are occurring along an area of the coast and coastal waters well southeast of the center. The initial motion is now 035/16. The track guidance is in good agreement that Elsa should accelerate northeastward during the next few days as it becomes entrained into the mid-latitude southwesterly flow, with the track carrying the system across the Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic states during the next 24 hours, then near or over southeastern New England and Atlantic Canada. The new forecast track is basically an update of the previous track, and it is very close to the consensus models. Rawinsonde data and GOES-16 RGB airmass imagery show an upper-level shortwave trough over the southeastern United States to the west of Elsa, and the global models forecast this system to follow the cyclone northeastward and take on a negative tilt. This should result in increasing upper-level divergence over Elsa, which in turn should lead to some strengthening as the storm moves near or over the east coast of the United States. The 00Z ECMWF model is not as bullish on intensification as its previous run, but it and the 00Z UKMET still call for strengthening, and even the weaker GFS forecasts the favorable upper-air pattern. Based on this, the new intensity forecast shows a little more strengthening than the previous forecast. Based on the new forecast track, the tropical storm warning has been extended northward along the United States east coast to Massachusetts. Non-tropical gale warnings are in effect for the coastal areas to the north of the tropical storm warning due to the likelihood that Elsa will become extratropical as it reaches that area. Key Messages: 1. As Elsa moves across the Carolinas Thursday, heavy rainfall may result in limited flash and urban flooding. Heavy rainfall from the Mid-Atlantic into New England Thursday and Friday could lead to considerable flash and urban flooding. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina this morning. Tropical storm conditions are also expected along the coasts of North Carolina starting later today and the mid-Atlantic by this afternoon or tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the southern New England states and New York by Friday. Gale winds are expected over the portions of the New Hampshire and Maine coasts by late Friday or Friday night, and those conditions are possible over portions of Atlantic Canada Friday night and Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 33.4N 81.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 12H 08/1800Z 35.5N 79.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 09/0600Z 38.8N 75.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 09/1800Z 42.5N 70.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 10/0600Z 46.9N 63.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 10/1800Z 51.9N 54.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 11/0600Z 56.6N 44.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Discussion Number 32
2021-07-08 04:59:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Wed Jul 07 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 080259 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 1100 PM EDT Wed Jul 07 2021 Doppler radar and surface observations indicate that Elsa is maintaining its intensity. However, these winds aren't close to the center but, rather, in a strong band of convection in the eastern semicircle of the storm. The current wind speed is set to 40 kt in accordance with an earlier sustained wind report of 38 kt, and radar velocities reduced to the surface that would support at least 40 kt. Some weakening is expected overnight while a significant portion of Elsa's circulation remains over land. However by late Thursday, more of the storm will be moving over water, and a fair number of the models suggest re-intensification could take place. It is a little puzzling why the ECMWF and UKMET models, however, are showing a strengthening tropical storm close to the mid-Atlantic states, especially without a significant trough interaction or warm waters. I'm getting some deja vu in this case after working Claudette from a few weeks ago, with those same models also over-intensifying that storm. The GFS has been relatively consistent in showing only a small intensification of Elsa, and the NHC forecast will continue to be closer to that model's relatively weaker solution. The storm has turned north-northeastward tonight and is moving a little faster, about 14 kt. Elsa should move northeastward at an increasing forward speed during the next few days as it becomes embedded within fast southwesterly flow ahead of a mid-latitude trough. No significant changes were made to the previous track forecast since guidance remains in good agreement. Elsa is likely to become absorbed north of Newfoundland by another extratropical low by day 4. There is greater confidence tonight that some portion of North Carolina and the mid-Atlantic coast will receive tropical-storm force-winds, so the Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning in those areas. Areas to the north remain less certain, and remain under a Tropical Storm Watch. Key Messages: 1. As Elsa moves across southeastern Georgia into the Lowcountry of South Carolina tonight, heavy rainfall may result in considerable flash, urban, and minor river flooding. Heavy rainfall, from North Carolina across the mid-Atlantic and into New England Thursday and Friday, could lead to isolated flash and urban flooding. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina tonight. Tropical storm conditions are also expected along the coasts of North Carolina on Thursday and the mid-Atlantic by Thursday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the southern New England states and New York by Friday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 32.1N 82.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 12H 08/1200Z 34.1N 80.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 09/0000Z 37.1N 77.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 09/1200Z 40.4N 72.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 10/0000Z 44.5N 67.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 10/1200Z 49.0N 60.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 11/0000Z 54.0N 50.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Advisory Number 32
2021-07-08 04:57:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU JUL 08 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 080257 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 0300 UTC THU JUL 08 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET SOUTH CAROLINA TO GREAT EGG INLET NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NORTH BEACH AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC SOUTH OF COBB ISLAND AND DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LITTLE RIVER INLET...SOUTH CAROLINA TO GREAT EGG INLET...NEW JERSEY. * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS * CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NORTH BEACH AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC SOUTH OF COBB ISLAND * DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF GREAT EGG INLET...NEW JERSEY TO SANDY HOOK...NEW JERSEY * LONG ISLAND FROM EAST ROCKAWAY INLET TO THE EASTERN TIP ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE AND FROM PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR EASTWARD ON THE NORTH SHORE * NEW HAVEN...CONNECTICUT TO SAGAMORE BEACH...MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING CAPE COD...BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHA'S VINEYARD...AND NANTUCKET. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ELSA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.1N 82.3W AT 08/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.1N 82.3W AT 08/0300Z AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 82.7W FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 34.1N 80.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 37.1N 77.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 40.4N 72.9W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 140SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 44.5N 67.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 140SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 49.0N 60.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 120SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 54.0N 50.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 150SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.1N 82.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 08/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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