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Hurricane Felicia Forecast Discussion Number 5

2021-07-15 10:58:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT Thu Jul 15 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 150858 TCDEP1 Hurricane Felicia Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021 200 AM PDT Thu Jul 15 2021 Overnight, Felicia has maintained a small, but circular central dense overcast near its estimated center. A fortuitous GMI microwave pass at 0545 UTC depicted a well-defined mid-level eye on the 89 GHz channel, with deep convection wrapped three-fourths around the south and east sides of Felicia's center. Since that time, the storm's infrared satellite structure has improved further, with a distinct warm spot apparent near Felicia's center with colder than -70 C cloud tops wrapping around this feature. Subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB were both T4.0/65 kt at 0600 UTC, but a more recent objective ADT estimate was up to T4.4/75 kt. Given the additional improvement seen on geostationary satellite imagery since 0600 UTC, the latest initial intensity was raised to 75 kt this advisory, making Felicia a hurricane. Felicia appears to be starting a leftward turn, with the latest estimated motion at 280/10 kt. Over the next 24-36 hours, a weak upper-level trough currently centered over Baja California is forecast to cutoff and shift the mid-level ridging, currently north of Felicia, to the northwest ahead of the cyclone. This ridge reorientation is expected to result in a slow west-southwestward motion of Felicia beginning in the next 24 hours. Afterwards, the mid-level ridging becomes reestablished north of the cyclone, allowing a resumption of a more westward motion after 60 hours. The latest track guidance remains in good agreement, but has shifted a bit more southward this cycle. The official NHC track forecast is also a little south of the previous forecast, blending the latest track forecasts from the TVCE and HCCA consensus aids. Felicia has rapidly intensified over the last 24 hours from a tropical depression to a category one hurricane. In the short term, Felicia remains in an environment of low (5-10 kt) vertical wind shear and warm (27-28 C) sea surface temperatures. Now that the hurricane appears to have developed an inner core with convection axis-symmetric around it, additional intensification is expected with a new peak intensity of 95 kt forecasted in 24 to 36 hours. The first part of the NHC intensity forecast is on the upper end of the intensity guidance due to the higher initial intensity, and also given the possibility rapid intensification continues, as suggested by SHIPS-RII guidance, which gives Felicia a one-in-three chance of a 25 kt intensity increase over the next 24 hours. Afterwards, while vertical wind shear is expected to remain low, mid-level relative humidity is expected to decrease, leaving the small tropical cyclone susceptible to dry-air intrusions as sea surface temperatures also gradually decrease. A combination of these environmental factors are expected to lead to gradual weakening beginning after 36 hours through the end of the forecast. The latter portion of the NHC intensity forecast is in better agreement with the intensity guidance and closely follows the HCCA consensus aid. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 15.2N 117.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 15.3N 118.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 15.2N 120.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 16/1800Z 14.9N 122.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 17/0600Z 14.6N 123.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 17/1800Z 14.4N 125.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 18/0600Z 14.3N 127.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 19/0600Z 14.4N 131.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 20/0600Z 14.5N 135.1W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin/Beven

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Hurricane Felicia Forecast Advisory Number 5

2021-07-15 10:50:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC THU JUL 15 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 150850 TCMEP1 HURRICANE FELICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062021 0900 UTC THU JUL 15 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 117.6W AT 15/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 50SE 30SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 45SE 30SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 117.6W AT 15/0900Z AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 117.1W FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 15.3N 118.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 15.2N 120.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 14.9N 122.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 14.6N 123.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 14.4N 125.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 14.3N 127.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 14.4N 131.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 14.5N 135.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 117.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/BEVEN

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Tropical Storm Felicia Forecast Discussion Number 4

2021-07-15 04:35:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT Wed Jul 14 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 150235 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Felicia Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021 800 PM PDT Wed Jul 14 2021 Felicia has maintained a healthy satellite appearance today, with a symmetric central dense overcast and continued bursts of deep convection near and over its center. The upper-level outflow on the eastern side of the circulation appears somewhat limited, perhaps suggestive of some easterly wind shear. A mid-level eye was noted in earlier microwave data, but unfortunately no recent passes have sampled Felicia to help assess how the structure has changed. A blend of the subjective Dvorak classifications from TAFB (T3.5/55 kt) and SAB (T4.0/65 kt) supports an initial intensity of 60 kt for this advisory, which is slightly higher than the objective ADT and SATCON estimates of around 50-55 kt. Felicia is moving west-northwestward, or 285/13 kt, but the cyclone is forecast to turn westward and then west-southwestward during the next couple of days in response to a reorientation of the ridge axis to the north of Felicia. Thereafter, a general westward motion is likely through the rest of the forecast period as a low- to mid-level ridge remains positioned to the north of Felicia. The track guidance is tightly clustered, and the official NHC track forecast is essentially an update of the previous one with a slight southward adjustment that follows the consensus aids TVCE and HCCA. Felicia is expected to continue strengthening during the next couple of days over warm SSTs in a low vertical wind shear environment. The only apparent hindrance is some dry mid-level air in the surrounding environment, which could disrupt Felicia's convective organization if it is entrained into the inner core of the small cyclone. The SHIPS guidance indicates that Felicia will move into a drier and more stable mid- to upper-level environment beginning Friday, which is forecast to end the storm's intensification phase and induce a gradual weakening trend this weekend and into early next week. The official NHC intensity forecast is very similar to the previous one and closely follows the HCCA guidance. The intensity forecast becomes more track-sensitive by 48 h, as the expected west-southwestward turn would keep Felicia to the south of the 26 deg C isotherm. This should allow the cyclone to remain at or near hurricane strength through the end of the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 15.1N 116.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 15.4N 118.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 15.5N 120.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 15.3N 121.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 17/0000Z 15.0N 123.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 17/1200Z 14.7N 124.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 18/0000Z 14.7N 126.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 19/0000Z 14.8N 130.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 20/0000Z 15.0N 134.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch

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Tropical Storm Felicia Forecast Discussion Number 3

2021-07-14 22:33:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT Wed Jul 14 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 142033 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Felicia Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021 200 PM PDT Wed Jul 14 2021 Visible satellite imagery continues to show an increase in organization and convective banding in association with Felicia. The central dense overcast has also expanded and become more symmetric since this morning. A 1630 UTC GMI microwave overpass revealed a formative mid-level eye but some dry air was noted around the northwestern portion of the circulation. Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB are T3.5 (55 kt) and T3.0 (45 kt), but given the continued increase in organization the initial intensity is set at 55 kt, the high end of the satellite estimates. Continued strengthening is expected while Felicia remains over warm SSTs and within an area of vertical wind shear of less than 10 kt. The intensity guidance is still not overly bullish on strengthening, perhaps due to nearby dry mid-level air that could cause some pauses in the deepening process of the small tropical cyclone. The NHC intensity forecast is near the high end of the guidance through 24-36 h, and could be conservative if dry air does not disrupt the inner core. After 48 hours, slightly lower SSTs and a more stable air mass just to the north of the storm is likely to cause gradual weakening, but Felicia is forecast to remain a hurricane through much of the forecast period. Felicia is moving west-northwestward or 285/13 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge to the north of the tropical cyclone should continue to steer Felicia west-northwestward to westward through early Thursday. The ridge is forecast to weaken slightly and become oriented northeast to southwest, which is expected to cause Felicia to turn west-southwestward in 36-48 hours and a west-southwestward to westward motion should then continue through the rest of the forecast period. The track guidance remains in fairly good agreement, resulting in higher than normal confidence in the official forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 14.8N 115.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 15.3N 117.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 15.5N 118.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 15.5N 120.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 16/1800Z 15.2N 121.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 17/0600Z 15.0N 123.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 17/1800Z 14.9N 125.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 18/1800Z 14.9N 128.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 19/1800Z 14.8N 133.2W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Storm Felicia Forecast Advisory Number 3

2021-07-14 22:32:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC WED JUL 14 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 142032 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM FELICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062021 2100 UTC WED JUL 14 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 115.3W AT 14/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 115.3W AT 14/2100Z AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 114.8W FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 15.3N 117.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 15.5N 118.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 15.5N 120.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 15.2N 121.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 15.0N 123.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 14.9N 125.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 14.9N 128.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 14.8N 133.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 115.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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