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Hurricane Felicia Forecast Advisory Number 12

2021-07-17 04:32:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT JUL 17 2021 873 WTPZ21 KNHC 170231 TCMEP1 HURRICANE FELICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062021 0300 UTC SAT JUL 17 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 123.2W AT 17/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 954 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 123.2W AT 17/0300Z AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 122.8W FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 14.6N 124.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 14.7N 126.1W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 15.1N 128.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 15.4N 129.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 15.5N 131.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 15.5N 134.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 14.7N 138.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 13.9N 143.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 123.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO

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Hurricane Felicia Forecast Discussion Number 10

2021-07-16 16:52:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT Fri Jul 16 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 161452 CCA TCDEP1 Hurricane Felicia Discussion Number 10...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021 800 AM PDT Fri Jul 16 2021 Corrected 24-hour forecast position Compact Hurricane Felicia has continued to rapidly strengthen this morning with a well-defined, warm (>15C) clear eye now evident in infrared satellite imagery. However, the convective cloud tops surrounding the eye have warmed by almost 10 deg C during the past several hours, and a 1022Z ATMS microwave satellite pass showed the inner core convection a little less organized. Subjective satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were a consensus T6.0/115 kt and objective estimates from UW-CIMSS ADT over the past couple of hours have averaged T5.7/105 kt. The initial intensity is raised to 110 kt, and just below category 4 strength, for this advisory based on a blend of the various satellite intensity estimates and the slightly degraded aforementioned convective features. Felicia is moving west-southwestward or 255/07 kt. Strong deep-layer ridging to the north of the hurricane is expected to keep Felicia moving west-southwestward for the next 12-24 h. Thereafter, the global and regional models all show the ridge relaxing somewhat, which should allow Felicia to move more westward in the 24-120-hour forecast period. The new NHC track forecast is essentially on top of and just an update of the previous advisory track, and lies near the middle of the tightly packed simple and corrected consensus models TVCE, GFEX, and NOAA-HCCA. Some additional slight strengthening could occur this morning due to low vertical shear and warm SSTs conditions, with Felicia briefly becoming a category 4 hurricane. However, the warm water beneath the powerful hurricane isn't very deep as indicated by upper-ocean heat content values currently only around 5 units, which suggests that cold upwelling could begin at any time during the next 12 hours. Ocean heat content values are forecast to remain below 10 units from 24-96 hours, and decreasing to less than zero thereafter. Thus, slow weakening is forecast to begin by 24 h and continue through the remainder of the forecast period despite the favorable low (

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Hurricane Felicia Forecast Advisory Number 10

2021-07-16 16:49:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUL 16 2021 445 WTPZ21 KNHC 161448 CCA TCMEP1 HURRICANE FELICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062021 1500 UTC FRI JUL 16 2021 CORRECTED 24-HOUR FORECAST POSITION THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 121.6W AT 16/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 962 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 121.6W AT 16/1500Z AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 121.2W FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 14.8N 122.7W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 14.6N 124.3W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 14.6N 126.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 14.7N 127.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 14.8N 129.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 14.8N 131.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 14.4N 135.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 13.7N 138.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 121.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Hurricane Felicia Forecast Discussion Number 9

2021-07-16 10:59:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT Fri Jul 16 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 160859 TCDEP1 Hurricane Felicia Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021 200 AM PDT Fri Jul 16 2021 Tiny Felicia has continued to intensify tonight. Earlier SSMIS microwave imagery showed that the hurricane was maintaining a closed circular eyewall and cloud-top temperatures surrounding the eye on infrared satellite have continued to cool below -70 C. Scatterometer data from an ASCAT-A pass at 0418 UTC also indicated the small size of Felicia's wind field, with peak 34-kt wind radii only extending roughly 50 nm from the center in the northern semicircle. Subjective Dvorak estimates at 0600 UTC were both T5.5/102 kt from TAFB and SAB while the latest UW-CIMSS ADT objective estimate was T5.4/100 kt. A blend of these intensity estimates support a current intensity of 100 kt, making Felicia the first major hurricane in the East Pacific basin this year. Felicia now appears to be moving slightly south of due west with the latest estimated motion at 260/8 kt. Now that the strongest deep-layer ridging is positioned northwest of the hurricane, a west-southwestward motion is expected to continue for the next day or so. Afterwards, a narrow ridge axis shifts back north of Felicia, and the cyclone is expected to resume a more due westward motion between 24 to 72 hours. In the latter portion of the track forecast, the hurricane will come under the influence of a stronger mid-level ridge located north of Hawaii, resulting in another leftward turn by the end of the forecast period. The latest track guidance remains in good agreement for the majority of the forecast. The official NHC forecast is a touch south of the previous track and lies between the HCCA and TVCE consensus aids. Additional short-term intensification is forecast while Felicia remains in a favorable environment of low vertical wind shear between 5-10 kt and warm sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) between 27-28 C. Thereafter, mid-level humidity values are forecasted by the ECMWF-SHIPS guidance to drop below 50 percent as SSTs also gradually decrease. However, both deep-layer (200-850 hPa) and mid-level vertical wind shear are expected to remain light and easterly through at least the next 72 hours. Light easterly shear in combination with marginally warm SSTs are common environmental factors associated with major hurricanes that develop annular characteristics, and these storms are known to weaken at a slower than typical rate. To account for this possibility, the intensity forecast only shows very gradual weakening between 24 to 48 hours which is above the majority of the intensity guidance but lies closest to CTCI (COAMPS-TC). Afterwards, Felicia's weakening rate is forecast to increase as SSTs cool further, and northwesterly vertical-wind shear impinges on the cyclone by the end of the forecast period. The latter portion of the intensity forecast is closer to the mean of the intensity guidance and is near the HCCA intensity consensus aid at 120 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 15.1N 121.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 14.9N 122.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 14.6N 123.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 17/1800Z 14.5N 125.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 18/0600Z 14.6N 126.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 18/1800Z 14.7N 128.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 19/0600Z 14.8N 130.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 20/0600Z 14.6N 134.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 21/0600Z 13.8N 137.6W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin/Beven

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Hurricane Felicia Forecast Discussion Number 8

2021-07-16 04:53:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT Thu Jul 15 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 160253 TCDEP1 Hurricane Felicia Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021 800 PM PDT Thu Jul 15 2021 Satellite imagery indicates that Felicia has continued to rapidly strengthen this evening. Infrared temperatures have significantly warmed within the eye during the past couple hours, and deep convection within the eyewall has become more symmetric. A closed ring of infrared cloud top temperatures colder than -65 to -70 deg Celsius now completely surrounds the eye of Felicia. Based on these current satellite trends, the initial intensity is raised to 95 kt for this advisory. This lies between the TAFB subjective Dvorak current intensity estimate of 90 kt and UW-CIMSS ADT objective estimates of around 100 kt. Warm sea-surface temperatures and low vertical wind shear along Felicia's forecast track are expected to allow for some additional strengthening in the short-term, especially since dry air in the surrounding environment has had minimal impact on the cyclone's intensification up to this point. The official NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted upward and now brings Felicia to major hurricane status (Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale) within 12 h. The NHC forecast remains higher than the guidance consensus through the first 72 h, then generally follows the HFIP corrected consensus approach (HCCA) thereafter. The cyclone is forecast to slowly weaken this weekend within a drier, more stable mid-level environment. However, the forecast track keeps Felicia south of the 26 deg C isotherm, which should allow the cyclone to maintain its hurricane intensity through much of the forecast period. Felicia is still moving almost due west at around 8 kt. As the steering ridge becomes positioned to the northwest of Felicia, the cyclone is expected to move west-southwestward during the next day or so. Then, Felicia is forecast to resume a more westward motion for the next several days as the cyclone moves to the south of a subtropical ridge. The track guidance remains tightly clustered through much of the period. The official NHC forecast is adjusted just a bit slower and slightly farther north than the previous one, bringing it closer to the usually reliable consensus aids TVCE and HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 15.2N 120.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 15.1N 121.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 14.9N 122.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 14.7N 124.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 18/0000Z 14.7N 126.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 18/1200Z 14.9N 127.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 19/0000Z 15.0N 129.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 20/0000Z 14.9N 133.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 21/0000Z 14.5N 137.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Blake

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