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Post-Tropical Cyclone Elsa Forecast Advisory Number 39
2021-07-09 22:38:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUL 09 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 092038 TCMAT5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 39 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 2100 UTC FRI JUL 09 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... ALL REMAINING TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. COAST HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... NONE. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.0N 69.5W AT 09/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 30 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 270SE 180SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.0N 69.5W AT 09/2100Z AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 42.0N 71.0W FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 46.2N 64.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 50.3N 56.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 130SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 54.7N 46.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 43.0N 69.5W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Discussion Number 38
2021-07-09 16:46:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Fri Jul 09 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 091446 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 38 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 1100 AM EDT Fri Jul 09 2021 The extratropical transition of Elsa is well underway. A frontal boundary located over southern New England nearly wraps into the circulation center, and the primary area of cold cloud tops and heavy rainfall has now shifted to the northwestern portion of the cyclone. Elsa is expected to complete its extratropical transition this afternoon. Buoy and surface observations indicate that the cyclone's intensity has changed little since early this morning. Based on those data, Elsa's peak winds and minimum pressure remain 45 kt and 1000 mb for this advisory, respectively. Elsa continues to move quickly northeastward or 045/27 kt. The post-tropical cyclone is forecast to continue accelerating northeastward over the next day or two as it remains embedded within deep-layer southwesterly flow. After 48 hours, the system is expected to slow before it dissipates over the north Atlantic around day 3. The track guidance remains in good agreement, but has shifted slightly southward after 24 hours and the NHC forecast has been adjusted accordingly. Little change in strength is anticipated in the short-term as Elsa completes its extratropical transition. After that time, gradual weakening is anticipated and the wind speed forecast calls for the system to weaken below gale-force in a couple of days. The global models show the post-tropical cyclone dissipating over the north Atlantic by early next week, and the official forecast follows suit. Key Messages: 1. As Elsa moves near southern and coastal New England today, heavy rainfall could lead to considerable flash and urban flooding. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in portions of the warning area in Long Island and southern New England through this afternoon. Gusty winds are expected over portions of Atlantic Canada tonight and Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 41.0N 72.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 44.0N 67.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 10/1200Z 48.4N 60.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 11/0000Z 52.2N 51.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 11/1200Z 56.5N 41.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 12/0000Z 60.0N 32.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Advisory Number 38
2021-07-09 16:44:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUL 09 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 091444 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 38 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 1500 UTC FRI JUL 09 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LONG ISLAND FROM EAST ROCKAWAY INLET TO THE EASTERN TIP ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE AND FROM PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR EASTWARD ON THE NORTH SHORE * NEW HAVEN...CONNECTICUT TO MERRIMACK RIVER...MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING CAPE COD...BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHA'S VINEYARD...AND NANTUCKET A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. FOR INFORMATION ON WIND HAZARDS NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.0N 72.1W AT 09/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 27 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 240SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.0N 72.1W AT 09/1500Z AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.2N 73.1W FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 44.0N 67.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 48.4N 60.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 52.2N 51.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 56.5N 41.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 60.0N 32.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 41.0N 72.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 09/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Discussion Number 37
2021-07-09 10:44:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Fri Jul 09 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 090844 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 37 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 500 AM EDT Fri Jul 09 2021 Elsa has become better organized this early Friday morning as evidenced by a tightly coiled convective band that wraps completely around the low-level circulation center, along with Doppler radar velocities of more than 80 kt detected between 3000-7000 ft. Upper-level outflow has expanded in all directions except the southwestern quadrant, and the GFS and ECMWF models have assessed the vertical wind shear to only be 10 kt and 13 kt, respectively, over the center. Wind gusts to 68 kt and 62 kt were recently measured in Ludlam Bay, New Jersey, and Beach Haven, New Jersey, respectively. However, radar data suggest that these wind gusts were possibly associated with the passage of nearby tornadic circulations and were not due to Elsa's larger wind field. The central pressure of 1000 mb is based on a nearby pressure report of 1000.6 mb from the Ludlam Bay, New Jersey, WeatherFlow site, but this value could be conservative. The initial wind speed remains 45 kt based on recent observations from offshore buoys. The initial motion is estimated to be 045/27 kt. Elsa is forecast by the latest global and regional models to continue accelerating northeastward today through Saturday due to the system being embedded within deep-layer southwesterly mid-latitude flow. Elsa should move over southeastern New England today and over Atlantic Canada late tonight and on Saturday. The new NHC track forecast lies on top of the previous advisory track and is close to the middle of the tightly packed simple- and corrected-consensus track models. Elsa will be moving over 22-deg-C and cooler sea-surface temperatures by 6 hours and beyond, which should further hasten the ongoing extratropical transition process. This transition is expected to be completed in 18 hours or so when Elsa is forecast to be located over Atlantic Canada. Key Messages: 1. As Elsa moves near Long Island and southern and coastal New England today, heavy rainfall could lead to considerable flash and urban flooding. 2. Tropical storm conditions should continue along portions of the mid-Atlantic coast early this morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the southern New England states and New York by late this morning and afternoon. Gusty winds are expected over portions of Atlantic Canada tonight and Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 39.4N 74.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 12H 09/1800Z 42.2N 70.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 24H 10/0600Z 46.6N 63.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 10/1800Z 51.3N 54.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 11/0600Z 55.4N 45.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 11/1800Z 59.5N 36.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Advisory Number 37
2021-07-09 10:36:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUL 09 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 090836 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 0900 UTC FRI JUL 09 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF LITTLE EGG INLET NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LITTLE EGG INLET TO SANDY HOOK...NEW JERSEY * LONG ISLAND FROM EAST ROCKAWAY INLET TO THE EASTERN TIP ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE AND FROM PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR EASTWARD ON THE NORTH SHORE * NEW HAVEN...CONNECTICUT TO MERRIMACK RIVER...MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING CAPE COD...BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHA'S VINEYARD...AND NANTUCKET A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. FOR INFORMATION ON WIND HAZARDS NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.4N 74.3W AT 09/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 27 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 140SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 210SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.4N 74.3W AT 09/0900Z AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.4N 75.5W FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 42.2N 70.3W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 46.6N 63.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 51.3N 54.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 150SE 90SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 55.4N 45.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 59.5N 36.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.4N 74.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 09/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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