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Tropical Storm Polo Forecast Advisory Number 7

2020-11-19 09:43:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC THU NOV 19 2020 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 190843 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212020 0900 UTC THU NOV 19 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 119.3W AT 19/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 30SE 0SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 119.3W AT 19/0900Z AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 118.8W FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 17.1N 120.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 17.1N 123.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 17.0N 125.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 16.6N 128.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 119.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Tropical Storm Polo Forecast Discussion Number 6

2020-11-19 03:34:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 700 PM PST Wed Nov 18 2020 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 190234 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Polo Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212020 700 PM PST Wed Nov 18 2020 Satellite imagery shows that the convection associated with Polo has diminished this evening, with the remaining convection now to the east of the exposed low-level center. The initial intensity is held at a possibly generous 35 kt as a blend of subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates. Polo is moving into an environment of moderate westerly shear, a dryer air mass, and decreasing sea surface temperatures, and the system should gradually weaken during the next 48 h. The new intensity forecast has minor adjustments from the previous forecast, and it calls for Polo to degenerate to a remnant low by 36 h and dissipate by 60 h. The initial motion is 285/11. A low-level ridge to the north of the cyclone should steer the system generally westward until it dissipates. and the new track forecast is an update of the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 16.9N 118.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 17.2N 119.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 20/0000Z 17.3N 122.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 20/1200Z 17.3N 124.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 21/0000Z 17.3N 126.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

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Tropical Storm Polo Forecast Advisory Number 6

2020-11-19 03:33:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC THU NOV 19 2020 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 190233 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212020 0300 UTC THU NOV 19 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 118.3W AT 19/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 118.3W AT 19/0300Z AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 117.8W FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 17.2N 119.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.3N 122.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 17.3N 124.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 17.3N 126.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 118.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Tropical Storm Polo Forecast Discussion Number 5

2020-11-18 21:33:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 100 PM PST Wed Nov 18 2020 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 182033 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Polo Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212020 100 PM PST Wed Nov 18 2020 While the cloud pattern was fairly well organized this morning, Polo provided a little surprise when the center popped out of the central dense overcast. The system has since developed deep convection near the center, so perhaps this was a temporary fluctuation but reflects marginal environmental conditions. The initial wind speed is kept at 40 kt as a blend of the satellite data, and unfortunately scatterometer data missed again for a more certain estimate. Polo probably will peak in intensity during the next 12 hours or so before a combination of higher shear and dry/stable air causes the storm to weaken and eventually become a remnant low on Friday. No significant changes were made to the intensity forecast, and there were no meaningful model outliers from the NHC prediction. At least the exposed center allowed for a more precise initial motion estimate, though it ended up about the same as before 285/10. Model guidance is tightly clustered on the storm turning westward tomorrow while it remains to the south of a low- to mid-level ridge. The small cyclone will likely decay into a trough of low pressure by the weekend. Only cosmetic changes were made to the last forecast, which continues to lie near or just south of the model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 16.5N 117.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 16.8N 118.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 17.0N 120.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 20/0600Z 17.1N 123.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 20/1800Z 17.1N 125.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

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Tropical Storm Polo Forecast Advisory Number 5

2020-11-18 21:31:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC WED NOV 18 2020 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 182031 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212020 2100 UTC WED NOV 18 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 117.2W AT 18/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 117.2W AT 18/2100Z AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 116.7W FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 16.8N 118.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 17.0N 120.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 17.1N 123.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 17.1N 125.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 117.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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