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Remnants of Iota Forecast Discussion Number 21
2020-11-18 15:44:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 AM CST Wed Nov 18 2020 777 WTNT41 KNHC 181444 TCDAT1 Remnants Of Iota Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 900 AM CST Wed Nov 18 2020 Although the system still has broad mid-level rotation, synoptic observations from Central America show that the surface circulation of Iota has dissipated. Its remnants are located somewhere near El Salvador. Although the remnants of Iota are likely to move into the eastern North Pacific during the next day or so, the global models do not show regeneration of the system over that basin. Iota is still expected to produce very serious flash flooding and mudslides, with potentially catastrophic effects, over portions of Central America. This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Iota. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding is expected through Thursday across portions of Central America due to heavy rainfall from the remnants of Iota. Flooding and mudslides across portions of Honduras, Nicaragua and Guatemala could be exacerbated by saturated soils in place, resulting in significant to potentially catastrophic impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 13.8N 89.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...REMNANTS OF IOTA 12H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Polo Forecast Discussion Number 4
2020-11-18 15:40:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 700 AM PST Wed Nov 18 2020 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 181440 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Polo Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212020 700 AM PST Wed Nov 18 2020 Satellite images indicate that the depression has strengthened into a tropical storm. The small central dense overcast has grown during the past several hours and a few banding features have formed. Dvorak estimates range from 30 to 45 kt, and the initial wind speed is set to 40 kt, which matches the latest CIMSS satellite consensus estimate. Polo could strengthen a little more today, but an increase in shear and dry-air entrainment should start the weakening process on Thursday, with the system expected to become a non-convective remnant low on Friday. The new NHC forecast is a little below the model consensus, close to the previous NHC forecast, leaning toward the idea that the small tropical cyclone will probably weaken faster than the bulk of the guidance anticipates. The initial motion continues to be west-northwestward at 10 kt. There has been no change to the forecast philosophy, with Polo forecast to remain on the southern side of a mid-level ridge throughout the period. The storm should turn more westward on Thursday as the system weakens and becomes more shallow. The new forecast is south of the latest model consensus, nudged slightly north of the previous NHC forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 16.3N 116.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 16.5N 117.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 16.7N 119.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 20/0000Z 16.9N 121.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 20/1200Z 17.0N 123.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 21/0000Z 17.0N 126.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Remnants of Iota Forecast Advisory Number 21
2020-11-18 15:40:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED NOV 18 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 181440 TCMAT1 REMNANTS OF IOTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL312020 1500 UTC WED NOV 18 2020 SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 89.5W AT 18/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 89.5W AT 18/1500Z AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 89.0W FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 89.5W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANTS, PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm Polo Forecast Advisory Number 4
2020-11-18 15:37:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED NOV 18 2020 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 181437 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212020 1500 UTC WED NOV 18 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 116.0W AT 18/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 116.0W AT 18/1500Z AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 115.4W FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 16.5N 117.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.7N 119.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 16.9N 121.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 17.0N 123.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 17.0N 126.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 116.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Depression Iota Forecast Advisory Number 20
2020-11-18 11:17:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED NOV 18 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 181017 CCA TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IOTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL312020 0900 UTC WED NOV 18 2020 CORRECTED FOR NO INTERMEDIATE CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 88.3W AT 18/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 88.3W AT 18/0900Z AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 87.8W FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 13.0N 89.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 88.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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