je.st
news
Tag: forecast
Tropical Storm Iota Forecast Discussion Number 19
2020-11-18 03:35:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 PM CST Tue Nov 17 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 180235 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Iota Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 900 PM CST Tue Nov 17 2020 Most of the deep convection associated with Iota has weakened during the past several hours, with the primary remaining convection now in a band well removed from the center in the northwestern semicircle. The initial intensity is reduced to 35 kt, and these winds are possibly occuring in two areas - a small area near what is left of the inner core and along the coast of Honduras in the Tropical Storm warning area. Iota should continue to quickly weaken, with the system expected to drop below tropical-storm strength during the next few hours and to dissipate completely between 12-24 h. At this time, the available guidance is not bullish on any regeneration of the system over the Pacific. The initial motion is 270/10. The cyclone or its remnants should move westward to west-southwestward before dissipation occurs. Iota is still expected to produce very serious hazards while it is over central America, including flash flooding and mud slides, These hazards could result in potentially catastrophic effects, especially when compounded upon Hurricane Eta's destruction from a couple of weeks ago. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding is expected through Thursday across portions of Central America due to heavy rainfall from Iota. Flooding and mudslides across portions of Honduras, Nicaragua and Guatemala could be exacerbated by saturated soils in place, resulting in significant to potentially catastrophic impacts. 2. Tropical-storm conditions, primarily close to the center of Iota and along the coast of Honduras, are still expected for the next few hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 13.7N 87.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 12H 18/1200Z 13.4N 88.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 24H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Forecast Advisory Number 2
2020-11-18 03:35:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED NOV 18 2020 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 180235 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212020 0300 UTC WED NOV 18 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 114.3W AT 18/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 114.3W AT 18/0300Z AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 113.8W FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 15.9N 115.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 16.5N 118.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.9N 120.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.3N 122.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 17.3N 124.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 114.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
Tags: number
advisory
tropical
depression
Tropical Storm Iota Forecast Advisory Number 19
2020-11-18 03:35:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED NOV 18 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 180234 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM IOTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL312020 0300 UTC WED NOV 18 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM PUNTA CASTILLA EASTWARD TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF HONDURAS WEST OF PUNTA CASTILLA TO THE HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER * BAY ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 87.3W AT 18/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......160NE 20SE 20SW 160NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 87.3W AT 18/0300Z...INLAND AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 86.8W...INLAND FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 13.4N 88.7W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 87.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 18/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tags: number
storm
advisory
tropical
Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2020-11-17 22:12:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM MST Tue Nov 17 2020 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 172111 CCA TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Discussion Number 1...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212020 200 PM MST Tue Nov 17 2020 Corrected Daylight Time to Standard time Visible satellite imagery and recent ASCAT data indicate that the circulation of the area of low pressure located well south-southwest of Baja California has become better defined today. The associated convective activity has also become organized in a band around the western and southwestern portions of the circulation. Therefore, the system is being classified as a tropical depression with winds of 30 kt, as indicated by the scatterometer data and a T2.0 (30 kt) Dvorak classification from TAFB. The depression is currently located over SSTs of around 28 deg C, and within a low shear environment. These conditions are conducive for strengthening, but the surrounding mid-level environment is fairly dry which is likely to limit intensification. Most of the intensity guidance calls for the system to become a short-lived tropical storm, and so does the official forecast. After 24 hours, increasing upper-level westerly winds, cooler SSTs, and even less favorable thermodynamic conditions should cause the cyclone to weaken. The system is likely to become a remnant low in about 48 hours, and the global models show it degenerating into a trough of low pressure in 60-72 hours, which is also indicated in the NHC forecast. The initial motion estimate is 285/11 kt. A mid-level ridge that extends westward from northern Mexico over the eastern Pacific should steer the system west-northwestward for the next couple of days. After that time, the cyclone is likely to turn more westward as it weakens and is steered by the low-level trade wind flow. The track guidance is in good agreement, and the NHC forecast is near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 15.2N 113.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 15.6N 114.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 18/1800Z 16.2N 117.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 19/0600Z 16.7N 119.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 19/1800Z 17.1N 121.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 20/0600Z 17.2N 123.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
Tags: number
discussion
tropical
depression
Tropical Storm Iota Forecast Discussion Number 18
2020-11-17 21:43:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 PM CST Tue Nov 17 2020 797 WTNT41 KNHC 172043 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Iota Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 300 PM CST Tue Nov 17 2020 The cloud pattern of Iota has slowly degraded during the day, with warming of the cloud tops, but it has remained fairly well organized for a system that's been over land for about 18 hours. The initial wind speed is lowered to 50 kt using the Decay-SHIPS guidance. Iota will encounter higher terrain soon while it moves westward at about 10 kt, so it should quickly weaken tonight, and it will probably degenerate into a weak low near El Salvador overnight. None of the available guidance show regeneration in the eastern Pacific, perhaps due to cooler SSTs with all of the recent gap wind events, and plenty of drier air in the vicinity. Iota is still expected to produce very serious hazards while it is over central America, including flash flooding and mud slides, These hazards could result in potentially catastrophic effects, especially when compounded upon Hurricane Eta's destruction from a couple of weeks ago. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding is expected through Thursday across portions of Central America due to heavy rainfall from Iota. Flooding and mudslides across portions of Honduras, Nicaragua and Guatemala could be exacerbated by Hurricane Etas recent effects there, resulting in significant to potentially catastrophic impacts. 2. Strong winds, primarily close to the center of Iota and along the coast of Honduras, are still expected for the next several hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 13.7N 86.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 12H 18/0600Z 13.6N 87.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Sites : [273] [274] [275] [276] [277] [278] [279] [280] [281] [282] [283] [284] [285] [286] [287] [288] [289] [290] [291] [292] next »