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Tropical Depression Rose Forecast Advisory Number 12

2021-09-22 04:38:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 22 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 220238 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172021 0300 UTC WED SEP 22 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 37.9W AT 22/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 37.9W AT 22/0300Z AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 37.7W FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 23.9N 38.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 25.0N 40.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 26.3N 41.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 27.6N 41.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 28.9N 40.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 29.7N 37.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 31.3N 32.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.9N 37.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Tags: number rose advisory tropical

Tropical Depression Peter Forecast Discussion Number 13

2021-09-21 22:50:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Sep 21 2021 000 WTNT41 KNHC 212050 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Peter Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021 500 PM AST Tue Sep 21 2021 Like clockwork compared to prior days, deep convection has reignited closer to the increasingly elongated low-level circulation of Peter. Despite this increase in convective coverage, there does not appear to be much if any organization to this activity, with the upper-level cirrus taking on the appearance of a shapeless blob. In addition, an earlier 1157 UTC ASCAT-A pass received just after the prior advisory showed a peak wind retrieval of only 29 kt, well to the north of the low-level circulation. Furthermore, NOAA buoy 41043, located north of the center of Peter, has been observing peak 1-minute sustained winds between 20-25 kt over the last 6 hours. These lower winds, in combination with the lack of tropical storm force winds observed by the earlier Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance mission provide enough justification to downgrade Peter to a tropical depression this advisory with maximum sustained winds of 30 kt. The ongoing afternoon convection appears to have slowed down the forward motion of Peter a bit this afternoon, but the heading remains off to the west-northwest at 300/7 kt. Peter is still expected to gradually move to the west-northwest in the short term, followed by a somewhat sharp turn to the north and north-northeast as a weakness in the low-level flow develops from a deep-layer trough positioned near Bermuda. Similar to this morning, the guidance is in general agreement on this solution, with some cross- and along-track spread. The latest NHC track forecast is just a bit more right compared to the previous advisory, leaning a bit closer to the consensus aids which have also shifted a bit right this advisory. Peter's convective activity is unlikely to help improve the increasingly elongated vortex, mainly because the convection is likely to entrain dry mid-level air that often results in cool downdrafts disrupting the low-level cyclonic circulation more than helping. With deep-layer shear between 25-35 kt expected to persist for the next 36 hours in both the GFS- and ECMWF-SHIPS guidance, gradual weakening is likely to continue. By 36 hours, while intermittent bursts of deep convection will remain possible over warm sea-surface temperatures, both the GFS and ECMWF forecast simulated IR brightness temperatures show the convection becoming increasingly disorganized and unlikely to sustain Peter's status as a tropical cyclone. Thus, the cyclone is now forecast to become a remnant low in 36 hours. However, given that Peter's circulation is becoming increasingly elongated, it is also possible the system may open up into a trough even before this time period. Key Messages: 1. Rainfall around the southern periphery of Tropical Depression Peter could lead to areas of urban and small stream flooding through the evening across northern Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, portions of the Virgin Islands, and the Northern Leeward Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 20.5N 65.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 21.3N 66.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 22.3N 67.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 23/0600Z 23.2N 67.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 23/1800Z 24.2N 66.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 24/0600Z 25.3N 66.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 24/1800Z 26.7N 65.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 25/1800Z 28.7N 63.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin

Tags: number discussion peter tropical

Tropical Depression Peter Forecast Advisory Number 13

2021-09-21 22:43:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 21 2021 000 WTNT21 KNHC 212043 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION PETER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162021 2100 UTC TUE SEP 21 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 65.0W AT 21/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 65.0W AT 21/2100Z AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 64.8W FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 21.3N 66.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 22.3N 67.2W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 23.2N 67.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 24.2N 66.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 25.3N 66.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 26.7N 65.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 28.7N 63.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 65.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Tags: number peter advisory tropical

Tropical Storm Peter Forecast Discussion Number 12

2021-09-21 16:57:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 21 2021 000 WTNT41 KNHC 211457 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Peter Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 21 2021 Like the last several days, this morning's visible satellite imagery indicates that Peter has become increasingly detached from the remaining fragmented convection that is firing more than 100 n mi east of the center. An Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance aircraft has been sampling the storm this morning and so far has yet to find any flight level (925 mb) or SFMR winds above tropical storm force, although they weren't able to fly the full pattern in the northeastern quadrant. The initial intensity has been lowered to 35 kt for this advisory, though the data so far suggests this estimate is generous. After taking a jog to the west overnight, Peter appears to have resumed a slower west-northwest motion at 290/8 kt. Over the next several days, Peter is expected to continue to slow down as it gradually turns to the north and then north-northeast as a deep-layer cyclone to the north is forecast to create a weakness in the current low-level ridging. The track guidance is in general agreement with this scenario, but differences remain in how sharp this rightward turn will be. The latest NHC track forecast has elected to stay close to the track consensus models TVCN and HCCA, and is a bit right of the previous track. After holding its own against a fairly hostile upper-level wind environment during the last 24-48 hours, Peter appears to finally be succumbing to the combination of 25-30 kt of deep-layer vertical wind shear helping to import sub-50 percent mid-level relative humidity over the center. This shear is not forecast to abate for the next 36-48 hours, and it now appears likely Peter will not be able to survive this unfavorable environment. The latest NHC intensity forecast now weakens Peter to a tropical depression in 12 hours, and degenerates it to a remnant low in 48 hours. However, given the current fragile state of the low-level circulation, it is distinctly possible that Peter may open up into a trough even sooner in the next 24-48 hours. Key Messages: 1. Rainfall around the southern periphery of Tropical Storm Peter could lead to areas of urban and small stream flooding through today across northern Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, portions of the Virgin Islands, and the Northern Leeward Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 19.9N 64.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 20.7N 65.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 21.7N 67.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 22.7N 67.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 23/1200Z 23.4N 67.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 24/0000Z 24.4N 67.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 24/1200Z 25.4N 66.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 25/1200Z 27.5N 64.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 26/1200Z 29.8N 62.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Papin

Tags: number discussion peter storm

Tropical Storm Peter Forecast Advisory Number 12

2021-09-21 16:52:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 21 2021 000 WTNT21 KNHC 211452 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM PETER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162021 1500 UTC TUE SEP 21 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 64.7W AT 21/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......130NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 64.7W AT 21/1500Z AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 64.0W FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 20.7N 65.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 21.7N 67.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 22.7N 67.5W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 23.4N 67.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 24.4N 67.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 25.4N 66.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 27.5N 64.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 29.8N 62.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.9N 64.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Tags: number peter storm advisory

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