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Tropical Storm Marco Forecast Discussion Number 9

2020-08-22 16:54:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 221454 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Marco Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020 1000 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2020 Reconnaissance data, geostationary and microwave satellite imagery, and radar data from Cuba all indicate that Marco is strengthening quickly this morning. The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters measured a peak 850-mb flight-level wind of 69 kt, and there were several SFMR measurements of 50-55 kt to the northeast of the center. These data support raising Marco's initial intensity to 55 kt, and the central pressure based on dropsonde data has fallen to 992 mb. The crew on the plane reported the formation of a partial eyewall, which agrees with what we've seen on recent microwave and radar images. The track forecast has been complicated by the fact that the plane has fixed Marco's center to the east of the previous forecast track, and that makes the current motion north-northwestward, or 340/10 kt. The subtropical ridge currently located over the southwestern Atlantic is forecast to build westward along the northern Gulf Coast during the next few days, and this expanding ridge is expected to push Marco northwestward and then eventually westward while the cyclone moves across the Gulf of Mexico. This general thinking has not changed, but the adjusted initial position ended up shifting the track guidance to the north and east on this cycle. In response, the new NHC track forecast has been adjusted eastward and northward during the first 3 days and is generally between the HCCA and TVCN consensus aids. Marco has finally tapped into the favorable conditions over the northwestern Caribbean Sea, and the cyclone's overall small size and small radius of maximum winds makes it susceptible to quick changes in intensity. The tropical storm is just beginning to move into a higher zone of shear to its north, but conditions should remain conducive enough for Marco to intensity to a hurricane during the next 24 hours. After that time, southwesterly shear is expected to increase over 20 kt by day 2 and then over 30 kt by day 3, and those conditions, along with the cyclone's small size, should cause weakening as Marco gets closer to the central and northwestern Gulf coast. The updated NHC intensity forecast has been increased during the first 2 days and lies above the HCCA/Florida State Superensemble solutions but below the SHIPS/LGEM scenarios. The intensity forecast comes back in line with the previous forecast by day 3 during the expected weakening phase, and Marco is ultimately expected to dissipate over Texas by the end of the forecast period. The updated track forecast suggests that watches could be required for a portion of the central Gulf Coast later today. Key Messages: 1. Marco is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane as it moves into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by tonight, and tropical storm conditions are expected over the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula and in extreme western Cuba. Heavy rainfall is also expected in the eastern portions of the Mexican states of Quintana Roo and Yucatan, and across far western Cuba, which could result in flash flooding. 2. Marco is expected to move across the central Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane Sunday and approach the central Gulf Coast on Monday. There is an increasing risk of impacts from storm surge, winds, and heavy rainfall from the upper Texas coast to Louisiana early next week, and interests there should monitor the progress of Marco, as storm surge, tropical storm, and/or hurricane watches could be issued later today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 20.9N 85.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 22.1N 86.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 23.9N 87.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 25.6N 88.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 24/1200Z 27.2N 89.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 25/0000Z 28.5N 91.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 25/1200Z 29.1N 93.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 26/1200Z 29.3N 96.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 120H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg

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Tropical Storm Marco Forecast Advisory Number 9

2020-08-22 16:54:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 22 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 221454 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARCO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142020 1500 UTC SAT AUG 22 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EASTERN YUCATAN COAST SOUTH OF CANCUN. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO CUBA * CANCUN TO DZILAM MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE COASTS OF LOUISIANA AND TEXAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARCO. WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THIS AREA LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 85.3W AT 22/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 10SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 85.3W AT 22/1500Z AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 85.1W FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 22.1N 86.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 10SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 23.9N 87.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 25.6N 88.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 27.2N 89.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 28.5N 91.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 29.1N 93.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 29.3N 96.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.9N 85.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 22/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Tropical Storm Laura Forecast Discussion Number 11

2020-08-22 16:52:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Aug 22 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 221452 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Laura Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 1100 AM AST Sat Aug 22 2020 Laura is producing considerable deep convection but the cloud pattern remains disorganized. Surface observations indicate that the center is still not well defined, but the San Juan WSR-88D radar shows a mid-level center south of eastern Puerto Rico. The radar also shows heavy rains spreading over that island. The initial intensity estimate remains at 35 kt based on continuity. As noted in previous discussions, the intensity forecast for Laura is dependent on its future track. The official forecast, like the previous one, moves the center over the land masses of Hispaniola and Cuba for the next couple of days which should limit intensification at least through the weekend. After Laura moves into the Gulf of Mexico, warm waters should lead to strengthening and the system is likely to become a hurricane in 3 to 4 days. The official intensity forecast is close to the consensus guidance. At this time the influence of small tropical cyclone Marco, which should move over the northwestern Gulf about a day or two before Laura, is not expected to be significant. This could change in the coming days however. The initial motion estimate remains quite uncertain and is near 280/16 kt. No significant changes are being made to the official track forecast. Laura is likely to move on a generally west-northwestward track on the periphery of a mid-tropospheric high pressure area for the next few days. By day 4, the system should turn northwestward while moving along the southwestern side of the high. The official track forecast is only slightly north of the dynamical model consensus at 36-72 hours and essentially the same as the consensus otherwise. The GFS and its ensemble mean are significantly farther west of the official forecast at days 3 and beyond, which suggests relatively low confidence in the longer-range track of Laura. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of the the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today. Tropical storm conditions are also expected along the northern coasts of the Dominican Republic and Haiti, and the Turks and Caicos and southeastern Bahamas Saturday into Sunday. Heavy rainfall is likely across these areas and could cause mudslides and flash and urban flooding through Sunday, with widespread river flooding possible in Puerto Rico. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible over portions of the central Bahamas Sunday night, as well as portions of eastern and central Cuba Sunday and Sunday night. 3. The details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts remain more uncertain than usual since Laura is forecast to move near or over portions of the Greater Antilles through Monday. However, Laura is forecast to strengthen over the Gulf of Mexico and could bring storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts to the northern U.S. Gulf Coast by the middle of next week. Interests there should monitor the progress of Laura and updates to the forecast during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 17.8N 66.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 18.6N 69.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 24H 23/1200Z 19.4N 72.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 24/0000Z 20.9N 76.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 48H 24/1200Z 22.4N 80.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 60H 25/0000Z 23.7N 83.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 25/1200Z 25.2N 86.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 26/1200Z 27.9N 90.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 27/1200Z 31.6N 92.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Tropical Storm Laura Forecast Advisory Number 11

2020-08-22 16:41:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 22 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 221441 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM LAURA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020 1500 UTC SAT AUG 22 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF LAS TUNAS...HOLGUIN...GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GRANMA. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED FOR ST. MAARTEN...ST. MARTIN...ST. BARTHELEMY...AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE BORDER WITH HAITI * THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO PUNTA PALENQUE * THE NORTHERN COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS TO THE BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC * THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS * CUBAN PROVINCES OF LAS TUNAS...HOLGUIN...GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GRANMA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CUBA AND IN THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LAURA. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND ADDITIONAL WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA LATER TODAY AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 66.8W AT 22/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......180NE 180SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 66.8W AT 22/1500Z AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 66.1W FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 18.6N 69.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 19.4N 72.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...150NE 50SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 20.9N 76.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 60SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 22.4N 80.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 60SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 23.7N 83.2W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 60SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 25.2N 86.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 40SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 27.9N 90.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 31.6N 92.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 66.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 22/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Tropical Storm Laura Forecast Discussion Number 10

2020-08-22 11:26:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Aug 22 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 220926 CCA TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Laura Discussion Number 10...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 500 AM AST Sat Aug 22 2020 Corrected status at 96 and 120 h Surface observations and Doppler radar data from Puerto Rico indicate that the center of Laura is currently over the Virgin Islands, eastern Puerto Rico, and the adjacent Caribbean waters. Overall, the system has become a little better organized since the last advisory, with strong convection forming not far from the center to the east and southeast and a somewhat better defined circulation. However, the central area of light winds is quite large, and there is evidence of several vorticity centers rotating around the mean storm center. Earlier scatterometer data suggested that the maximum winds had decreased to 35 kt, and that is the initial intensity for this advisory. The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 280/18. There is no change in the track forecast philosophy, as a subtropical ridge over the central and western Atlantic is expected to expand westward, causing Laura to move quickly west-northwestward for the next 3 days or so. After that, the storm should turn northwestward toward the western edge of the ridge over the northern Gulf coast. While the dynamical models are in good agreement with the general scenario, there is an unusual amount of cross track spread. The track guidance is spread from the Florida Keys to the western end of Cuba as the storm enters the Gulf of Mexico, and the models have potential landfall locations along the Gulf coast from the Florida Panhandle to the middle Texas coast. One complicating factor is the potential for interaction with Tropical Storm Marco, although at this time the model guidance suggests the storms will stay far enough apart to prevent direct interaction. The new forecast track is similar to the previous track through 72 hr, then it is shifted a bit to the west after that time. The new track lies near the various consensus models. Laura is moving into an environment of light shear, and combined with the somewhat improved organization it suggests the storm should strengthen. However, the forecast track takes the center over Hispaniola and then down the length of Cuba, which should at least slow any intensification. This is reflected in the new intensity forecast which shows slow strengthening. Over the Gulf of Mexico, warm water and a likely favorable shear environment should allow Laura to become a hurricane, a scenario now supported by much of the guidance. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through today. Tropical storm conditions are also expected along the northern coasts of the Dominican Republic and Haiti, and the Turks and Caicos and southeastern Bahamas Saturday into Sunday. Heavy rainfall is likely across these areas beginning and could cause mudslides and flash and urban flooding through Sunday. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible over portions of the central Bahamas Sunday night, as well as portions of eastern and central Cuba Sunday and Sunday night. 3. The details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts remain more uncertain than usual since Laura is forecast to move near or over portions of the Greater Antilles through Monday. However, Laura could bring storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts to portions of Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida early next week and the northern U.S. Gulf Coast by the middle of next week. Interests there should monitor the progress of Laura and updates to the forecast during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 17.6N 65.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 18.2N 67.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 19.1N 71.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 23/1800Z 20.3N 74.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 48H 24/0600Z 21.6N 78.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 60H 24/1800Z 23.1N 81.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 72H 25/0600Z 24.6N 84.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 26/0600Z 27.5N 89.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 27/0600Z 31.0N 92.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Beven

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