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Tropical Storm Laura Forecast Advisory Number 13

2020-08-23 04:42:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 23 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 230242 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM LAURA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020 0300 UTC SUN AUG 23 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA * THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE BORDER WITH HAITI * THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO PUNTA PALENQUE * THE NORTHERN COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS TO THE BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC * THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS * CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...HOLGUIN...GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GRANMA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS * ANDROS ISLAND * FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO KEY WEST AND THE DRY TORTUGAS * FLORIDA BAY * CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA CLARA...CIENFUEGOS...MATANZAS...MAYABEQUE...LA HABANA...ARTEMISA...AND PINAR DEL RIO IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO IS STILL UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR MARCO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 69.6W AT 23/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 69.6W AT 23/0300Z AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 68.8W FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 19.3N 72.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 20.6N 76.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 22.1N 79.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 60SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 23.4N 83.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 30SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 24.7N 85.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 26.2N 88.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 50SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 29.8N 91.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 34.7N 89.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 69.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 23/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Tropical Storm Marco Forecast Discussion Number 10

2020-08-22 22:55:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2020 104 WTNT44 KNHC 222055 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Marco Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020 400 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2020 Cutting to the chase, there have been some big changes among the model guidance, and subsequently the NHC forecast, for Marco this afternoon. While at this point it's a little speculative, the data collected by this morning's NOAA G-IV flight in the environment around Marco and across the Gulf of Mexico may have played a key role in the significant eastward shift seen in nearly all the 12z models. This isn't to say that the uncertainty in the eventual track has diminished. In fact, various ensemble members from some of the global models still show a potential risk to the coast anywhere from Texas to Alabama, and it's entirely possible that the volatile shifts seen in the models could continue. That being said, the new NHC track forecast has been shifted significantly eastward and now shows the center of Marco reaching southeastern Louisiana in about 2 days, which is the scenario currently shown by the GFS, ECMWF, HCCA, Florida State Superensemble, and the TVCN multi-model consensus. After Marco reaches the coast, the western Atlantic ridge is expected to build westward and should cause the cyclone to move more slowly toward the west-northwest across southern portions of Louisiana. As far as the intensity is concerned, the last fix made by this morning's reconnaissance flight indicated that the pressure had leveled off, and no higher winds had been observed from what was measured earlier in the flight. The radar presentation from Cuban radar has also degraded a bit, so Marco's initial intensity is held at 55 kt. Marco is beginning to move into a zone of moderate southwesterly shear, but otherwise favorable conditions of warm ocean water and some upper-level divergence are expected to foster strengthening during the next day or so. With the exception of the HWRF, the other intensity models show Marco reaching hurricane strength, and the NHC foreast continues to show that possibility while Marco moves over the central Gulf. The shear is still expected to strengthen in 36-48 hours when the system is approaching the northern Gulf Coast, but with the shift in the forecast track, now there may not be enough time for Marco to weaken below hurricane intensity before it reaches land. The new NHC intensity forecast is near or just above the HCCA and Florida State Superensemble models and holds Marco as a hurricane until it reaches the coast. The forecast track changes now bring tropical storm force winds to the coast in 36-48 hours, which necessitates the issuance of Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches for a portion of the northern Gulf Coast. These watches will likely need to be upgraded to warnings later tonight. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions will continue over portions of extreme western Cuba through this evening. Heavy rainfall is also expected in the eastern portions of the Mexican states of Quintana Roo and Yucatan, and across far western Cuba, which could result in flash flooding. 2. Marco is expected to approach the central Gulf Coast as a hurricane on Monday. Hurricane conditions, life-threatening storm surge, and heavy rainfall are possible along portions of the Gulf Coast beginning on Monday, and Hurricane and Storm Surge watches have been issued. Interests in these areas should follow any advice given by local government officials. 3. Tropical Storm Laura could bring additional storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts to portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast by the middle of next week. This could result in a prolonged period of hazardous weather for areas that could be affected by Marco. Interests there should monitor the progress of Marco and Laura and updates to the forecast during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 21.9N 85.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 23.3N 86.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 25.3N 87.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 27.5N 88.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 24/1800Z 29.3N 89.6W 65 KT 75 MPH...ON THE COAST 60H 25/0600Z 30.4N 91.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 72H 25/1800Z 31.1N 92.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 96H 26/1800Z 32.3N 95.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 120H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg

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Tropical Storm Marco Forecast Advisory Number 10

2020-08-22 22:54:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 22 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 222054 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARCO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142020 2100 UTC SAT AUG 22 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SABINE PASS EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...LAKE BORGNE...AND MOBILE BAY. A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER...INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN COAST. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SABINE PASS TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...LAKE BORGNE...AND MOBILE BAY A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO CUBA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 85.7W AT 22/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 80SE 10SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 85.7W AT 22/2100Z AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 85.5W FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 23.3N 86.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 10SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 25.3N 87.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 27.5N 88.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 29.3N 89.6W...ON THE COAST MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 30.4N 91.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 31.1N 92.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 32.3N 95.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.9N 85.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 23/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Tropical Storm Laura Forecast Discussion Number 12

2020-08-22 22:52:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Aug 22 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 222052 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Laura Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 500 PM AST Sat Aug 22 2020 A couple of hours ago an observing site on the southeast coast of Puerto Rico, Las Mareas, reported sustained winds of 52 kt. These winds were apparently associated with a mesocyclone embedded within the larger-scale circulation and not representative of the intensity of the tropical storm. Scatterometer data and WSR-88D Doppler velocities from San Juan support an intensity of 45 kt. Since the center should be moving over land for the next 48 hours or so, no additional intensification is anticipated until Monday night when the center moves over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Over warm waters, with anticipated weak vertical shear, and anticyclonic flow aloft, Laura will likely strengthen into a hurricane before it reaches the northern Gulf of Mexico coast. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the multi-model consensus, but given the possibility of a favorable upper-air environment over the Gulf, this forecast could be conservative. At this time it does not seem likely that Marco, which is forecast to make landfall on the north-central Gulf coast a day or two earlier than Laura, should have much of an influence on the latter system. Center locations from earlier scatterometer data, low-cloud motions, and Dvorak fixes from both TAFB and SAB, give a motion of about 280/16 kt. Laura should move west-northwestward along the southern side of a mid-tropospheric anticyclone centered near the southeastern U.S. coast through 72 hours. Then, the cyclone is expected to turn northwestward to northward on the western side of the high. The official track forecast is on the right side of the track guidance suite. Given the predicted track and wind radii, a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Florida Keys and the Dry Tortugas. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue across portions of the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico through this evening. Tropical storm conditions are also expected across portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, the southeastern Bahamas, and central and eastern Cuba through Sunday. Heavy rainfall is likely across these areas and could cause mudslides and flash and urban flooding through Sunday, with widespread river flooding possible in Puerto Rico. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible over portions of the central Bahamas and Andros Island Sunday night and Monday, and in the Florida Keys on Monday. 3. The details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts remain uncertain since Laura is forecast to move near or over portions of the Greater Antilles through Monday. However, Laura is forecast to strengthen over the Gulf of Mexico and could bring storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts to portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast by the middle of next week. This could result in a prolonged period of hazardous weather for areas that are likely to be affected by Tropical Storm Marco earlier in the week. Interests there should monitor the progress of Laura and Marco and updates to the forecast during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 18.0N 68.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 18.9N 70.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 24H 23/1800Z 20.1N 74.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 36H 24/0600Z 21.6N 78.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 48H 24/1800Z 23.0N 81.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 60H 25/0600Z 24.3N 84.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 25/1800Z 25.7N 87.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 26/1800Z 29.0N 90.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 27/1800Z 33.0N 91.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Tropical Storm Laura Forecast Advisory Number 12

2020-08-22 22:51:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 22 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 222051 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM LAURA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020 2100 UTC SAT AUG 22 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO KEY WEST AND FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...HOLGUIN...GUANTANAMO... SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GRANMA. THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ANDROS ISLAND. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE BORDER WITH HAITI * THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO PUNTA PALENQUE * THE NORTHERN COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS TO THE BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC * THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS * CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...HOLGUIN...GUANTANAMO... SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GRANMA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS * ANDROS ISLAND * FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO KEY WEST AND THE DRY TORTUGAS * FLORIDA BAY A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LAURA. ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED THERE TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 68.1W AT 22/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......180NE 180SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 68.1W AT 22/2100Z AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 67.5W FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 18.9N 70.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 20.1N 74.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 60SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 21.6N 78.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 30SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 23.0N 81.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 60SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 24.3N 84.5W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 60SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 25.7N 87.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 40SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 29.0N 90.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 33.0N 91.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 68.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 23/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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