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Hurricane Larry Forecast Advisory Number 37

2021-09-09 22:57:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 09 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 092057 TCMAT2 HURRICANE LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 2100 UTC THU SEP 09 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FROM ARNOLD'S COVE TO JONES HARBOUR...NEWFOUNDLAND. THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE HAS ALSO ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM LAMALINE TO WEST OF ARNOLD'S COVE...AND FROM NORTH OF JONES HARBOUR TO BONAVISTA...NEWFOUNDLAND. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND FROM ARNOLD'S COVE TO JONES HARBOUR NEWFOUNDLAND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA * SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND FROM LAMALINE TO WEST OF ARNOLD'S COVE * SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND FROM NORTH OF JONES HARBOR TO BONAVISTA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.9N 62.2W AT 09/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 966 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 80NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. 50 KT.......110NE 110SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT.......190NE 190SE 140SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS..400NE 320SE 280SW 320NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.9N 62.2W AT 09/2100Z AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.0N 62.1W FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 36.8N 61.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...190NE 190SE 140SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 42.2N 59.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...190NE 200SE 180SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 48.4N 52.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 40NW. 50 KT...110NE 120SE 90SW 70NW. 34 KT...200NE 210SE 180SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 55.0N 46.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 70NW. 34 KT...240NE 230SE 210SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 59.5N 42.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 70NW. 34 KT...250NE 250SE 220SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 61.5N 40.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT...150NE 140SE 100SW 70NW. 34 KT...320NE 270SE 250SW 200NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.9N 62.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 10/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Hurricane Olaf Forecast Discussion Number 9

2021-09-09 22:46:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Sep 09 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 092046 TCDEP5 Hurricane Olaf Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021 300 PM MDT Thu Sep 09 2021 Olaf is quickly strengthening. An eye is now apparent in visible and satellite imagery. For most of the morning and early afternoon, a large and very symmetric eyewall was also apparent in radar data from Cabo San Lucas. Dvorak intensity estimates at 1800 UTC were 4.5/77 kt from both TAFB and SAB at 1800 UTC, and estimates from the U-W CIMSS ADT have increased to 80 kt since then. The initial intensity has been set at 80 kt, in close agreement with all available estimates. Olaf has moved consistently to the right of the forecast track for the past 12 hours, and the NHC track forecast has been shifted in that direction again. Olaf is now forecast to move very near or over southern Baja California Sur tonight. Regardless of the hurricane's exact track, it is very likely that a portions of southern Baja California Sur will get direct impacts from the eyewall of Olaf tonight. A large ridge centered over the southwestern U.S. is still expected to cause Olaf to make a slight turn toward the northwest tonight or early Friday. The hurricane should then make a westward turn by early Saturday as it weakens and the ridge extends westward. Despite the recent adjustments required to the NHC forecast, this forecast is still generally supported by all of the typically-reliable track guidance. By around 60 h, Olaf will likely have lost all of its deep convection and become a shallow post-tropical low, steered primarily southwestward by low-level flow. The environment should support additional intensification during the next 12 h as Olaf approaches the Baja California peninsula, so any fluctuations in intensity will likely be driven by internal dynamics at this point. The appearance of Olaf's eyewall in radar imagery has degraded a little during the past couple of hours, but it is possible this is due to attenuation of the radar signal and not fully representative of the hurricane's structure. Regardless, Olaf should begin to weaken once it interacts with land or moves inland. By late Friday, the rate of weakening is forecast to increase due to a combination of continued land interactions and cool sea surface temperatures. Olaf should quickly weaken over the weekend as it continues to move over cold water, and it will likely become a post-tropical cyclone on Sunday. The NHC intensity forecast is above the consensus at 12 h to allow for additional short-term strengthening, but follows the consensus closely at 36 h and beyond. Key Messages: 1. Olaf is forecast to move very near or over the southern portion of Baja California Sur tonight and Friday. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the southern portion of the hurricane warning area tonight and will spread northward through Friday. 2. Heavy rains associated with Olaf are expected across portions of southern Baja California Sur through Friday. This will pose a threat of significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 22.2N 108.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 23.1N 110.0W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND 24H 10/1800Z 24.2N 111.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 11/0600Z 24.6N 112.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 11/1800Z 24.5N 114.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 12/0600Z 23.9N 115.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 12/1800Z 23.2N 116.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 13/1800Z 22.0N 119.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 14/1800Z 21.5N 122.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky

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Hurricane Olaf Forecast Advisory Number 9

2021-09-09 22:44:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 09 2021 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 092044 TCMEP5 HURRICANE OLAF FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152021 2100 UTC THU SEP 09 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM NORTH OF SANTE FE TO CABO SAN LAZARO TO A HURRICANE WARNING. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ALSO ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO AND FROM SAN EVARISTO TO LORETO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO FROM LOS BARRILES TO CABO SAN LAZARO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO * BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO NORTH OF LOS BARRILES TO LORETO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OLAF. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 108.9W AT 09/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 977 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 50SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 60SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 108.9W AT 09/2100Z AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 108.6W FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 23.1N 110.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 24.2N 111.5W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 24.6N 112.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 24.5N 114.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 23.9N 115.3W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 23.2N 116.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 22.0N 119.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 21.5N 122.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.2N 108.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 10/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

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Tropical Depression Mindy Forecast Discussion Number 5

2021-09-09 22:39:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM EDT Thu Sep 09 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 092039 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Mindy Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132021 500 PM EDT Thu Sep 09 2021 The latest infrared satellite imagery indicates that Mindy has been devoid of convection near its center since about the time it emerged over the Atlantic this morning. Deep convection is present well to the northeast of Mindy along a surface trough that extends northeastward from the cyclone. A late morning ASCAT pass showed a large area of 25 to 30 kt winds southeast of the center. The initial intensity is set to 30 kt based on this data. The ASCAT data and surface observations indicate that the circulation has become less well-defined, with barely any east winds observed on the north side. Mindy is located in an environment of strong south to southwesterly vertical wind shear. Over the next 24 h, the shear is expected to become even stronger. The latest forecast calls for Mindy to become post-tropical on Friday and dissipate Friday night. However, based on the lack on convection and the deteriorating wind structure, it is quite possible that dissipation could occur much sooner than forecast. Mindy continues moving quickly off to the east-northeast, with a motion of 075/20 kt. There has been no change to the track forecast philosophy. Mindy is forecast to continue moving east-northeastward at a similar speed for the next 24 h near the southern portion of a deep-layer trough moving across the eastern United States. Once the trough begins to lift northeastward, Mindy should slow down a little on Friday. The NHC forecast is a little south of and slightly faster than the previous forecast, mainly due to the farther south initial position. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 32.0N 78.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 32.9N 74.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 33.8N 71.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky/Hagen

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Tropical Depression Mindy Forecast Advisory Number 5

2021-09-09 22:36:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 09 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 092036 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION MINDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132021 2100 UTC THU SEP 09 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 78.3W AT 09/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 20 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 78.3W AT 09/2100Z AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 79.4W FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 32.9N 74.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 33.8N 71.2W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.0N 78.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY/HAGEN

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