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Hurricane Olaf Forecast Advisory Number 10
2021-09-10 04:47:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 10 2021 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 100247 TCMEP5 HURRICANE OLAF FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152021 0300 UTC FRI SEP 10 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO FROM LOS BARRILES TO CABO SAN LAZARO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO * BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO NORTH OF LOS BARRILES TO LORETO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OLAF. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 109.6W AT 10/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 974 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 50SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 109.6W AT 10/0300Z AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 109.3W FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 23.9N 110.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 24.6N 112.3W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 24.8N 113.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 24.4N 114.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 23.7N 115.9W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 23.0N 117.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 21.6N 120.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 21.0N 122.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.0N 109.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 10/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Mindy Forecast Advisory Number 6
2021-09-10 04:45:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 10 2021 283 WTNT23 KNHC 100245 TCMAT3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MINDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132021 0300 UTC FRI SEP 10 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.5N 75.0W AT 10/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 25 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.5N 75.0W AT 10/0300Z AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.2N 76.1W FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 33.2N 71.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 34.1N 67.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.5N 75.0W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
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Hurricane Larry Forecast Discussion Number 38
2021-09-10 04:44:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 09 2021 249 WTNT42 KNHC 100244 TCDAT2 Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 38 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 09 2021 There is not much new to report in the satellite structure with Larry this evening. The hurricane consists of a small core region of cold convective cloud tops near and just north of the center with a much larger concentric band of more moderate convective activity encircling the smaller core. Radar from Bermuda also shows this structure well even as the hurricane pulls away from the island. The most recent subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB were unchanged from this afternoon, and the initial intensity will remain at 80 kt for this advisory. Larry is now moving to the north and beginning to accelerate at 360/20 kt. The track guidance remains in good agreement that Larry should soon turn to the northeast and continue accelerating quickly ahead of a large mid-latitude trough. On the current track, Larry should pass near or over southeastern Newfoundland tomorrow night or Saturday morning, becoming post-tropical shortly after it passes by. The post-tropical cyclone Larry should continue to move rapidly to the northeast until it is absorbed by the aforementioned mid-latitude trough after 48 hours. The official track forecast again lies close to the various consensus model predictions, and is just a touch faster than the previous forecast. Larry has another 12 hours or so over warm Gulf Stream waters, and most of the guidance is in agreement that the hurricane should maintain its intensity in the short-term. However, more gradual weakening should begin thereafter once Larry moves over much cooler waters. Unfortunately, there is not much time for Larry to weaken before the hurricane impacts Newfoundland, and it also is possible the rapidly approaching mid-latitude trough will provide some baroclinic forcing that could expand the wind field of the hurricane further. The NHC intensity forecast remain close to the latest HCCA guidance which is quite similar to the previous forecast. After 24 hours, the latest forecast GFS and ECMWF simulated IR brightness temperature suggest that Larry's convection should quickly shear off after passing by Newfoundland, with the hurricane becoming a powerful post-tropical cyclone by 36 hours. Both of these models now also suggest the post-tropical cyclone will quickly be stretched and then absorbed as its captured by an even larger extratropical cyclone produced by the upstream trough after 48 hours. Key Messages: 1. Larry is forecast to move near or over portions of southeastern Newfoundland Friday night or early Saturday morning as it undergoes transition to a hurricane-force post-tropical cyclone. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected in portions of southeastern Newfoundland where a Hurricane Warning in effect. 2. Large swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Leeward Islands, portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada through the end of the week. These swells will cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and beachgoers and other interests along these coasts are urged to follow the guidance of lifeguards and local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 35.5N 62.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 39.0N 60.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 11/0000Z 45.1N 56.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 11/1200Z 52.0N 49.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 12/0000Z 58.1N 44.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin
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Hurricane Larry Forecast Advisory Number 38
2021-09-10 04:44:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 10 2021 158 WTNT22 KNHC 100244 TCMAT2 HURRICANE LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 38 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 0300 UTC FRI SEP 10 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND FROM ARNOLD'S COVE TO JONES HARBOUR A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND FROM LAMALINE TO WEST OF ARNOLD'S COVE * SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND FROM NORTH OF JONES HARBOR TO BONAVISTA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.5N 62.3W AT 10/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 22 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 966 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 80NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. 50 KT.......110NE 110SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT.......200NE 200SE 140SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS..380NE 320SE 260SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.5N 62.3W AT 10/0300Z AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.4N 62.3W FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 39.0N 60.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 40NW. 50 KT...110NE 120SE 90SW 70NW. 34 KT...190NE 200SE 170SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 45.1N 56.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 55NE 60SE 50SW 30NW. 50 KT...100NE 120SE 90SW 70NW. 34 KT...190NE 230SE 210SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 52.0N 49.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 70SE 50SW 0NW. 50 KT...110NE 120SE 100SW 60NW. 34 KT...220NE 260SE 250SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 58.1N 44.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...200NE 180SE 100SW 0NW. 34 KT...320NE 300SE 200SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.5N 62.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 10/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
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Hurricane Larry Forecast Discussion Number 37
2021-09-09 22:59:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Sep 09 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 092059 TCDAT2 Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 37 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 500 PM AST Thu Sep 09 2021 A faint eye is still discernible on visible satellite images along with some banding features. On the Bermuda radar, the eyewall is partially open over the southern semicircle of the hurricane. Larry still has a prominent upper-tropospheric outflow pattern, especially over the northern portion of the circulation. The advisory intensity is held at 80 kt, just above the latest Dvorak Current Intensity Numbers from TAFB and SAB. Larry is now heading a little west of north at an increasing forward speed, and the initial motion is 345/17 kt. The hurricane has been moving around the western side of a large deep-layer high pressure area centered over the central Atlantic. By Friday, the system should accelerate northeastward ahead of a strong mid-tropospheric trough over the northeastern United States, and pass near or over southeastern Newfoundland within 36 hours. Thereafter, post-tropical cyclone Larry should move over the far North Atlantic. The official track forecast again lies close to the various consensus model predictions. The hurricane is expected to remain over warm waters with weak vertical shear for another 12 to 24 hours. Thereafter, Larry is forecast to move over the cooler waters north of the Gulf Stream and the shear will increase. These factors should induce weakening, but possible baroclinic forcing associated with the trough to the west of the cyclone could result in Larry maintaining some strength over the next few days. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the latest NOAA corrected-consensus guidance, HCCA. Global model predictions indicate that Larry will merge with a front, and therefore become an extratropical cyclone, in 48 hours. These models also show the system merging with another large extratropical low over the north Atlantic in 3 to 4 days. Key Messages: 1. Larry is forecast to move near or over portions of southeastern Newfoundland Friday night or early Saturday morning as it undergoes transition to a hurricane-force post-tropical cyclone. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected in portions of southeastern Newfoundland where a Hurricane Warning in effect. 2. Large swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Leeward Islands, portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada through the end of the week. These swells will cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and beachgoers and other interests along these coasts are urged to follow the guidance of lifeguards and local officials. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda through this evening, along with a risk of coastal flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 33.9N 62.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 36.8N 61.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 42.2N 59.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 48.4N 52.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 11/1800Z 55.0N 46.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 12/0600Z 59.5N 42.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 12/1800Z 61.5N 40.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 13/1800Z...MERGED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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