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Tropical Depression Twelve Forecast Advisory Number 1

2021-08-31 22:34:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 31 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 312034 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 2100 UTC TUE AUG 31 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 21.1W AT 31/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 0 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 21.1W AT 31/2100Z AT 31/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 20.2W FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 11.6N 23.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 12.0N 27.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 12.1N 30.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 12.5N 33.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 40SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 13.3N 36.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 70SE 70SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 14.3N 39.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 100SE 90SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 16.5N 43.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 19.5N 47.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.2N 21.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Tropical Depression Kate Forecast Discussion Number 15

2021-08-31 22:31:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Aug 31 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 312031 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Kate Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021 500 PM AST Tue Aug 31 2021 Kate continues to produce small, sporadic bursts of convection near and to the east of its partially exposed low-level center this afternoon. The cyclone has moved north of the subtropical jet stream that it has been centered under for the past couple of days, so the mid- to upper-level vertical wind shear is beginning to diminish. Unfortunately, all three ASCAT passes this morning missed Kate's small circulation. The current intensity Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB support maintaining the initial intensity at 30 kt for this advisory. The cyclone is moving a little faster to the north, or 360/6 kt. The track forecast reasoning is largely unchanged. Kate is expected to begin moving north-northwestward tonight as a mid-level ridge builds to the east and northeast of the cyclone. This general motion should continue through early Thursday, before an approaching mid- to upper-level trough begins steering Kate more northward through Friday. The official NHC track forecast is essentially an update of the previous one and lies near the center of the guidance envelope, remaining close to the multi-model consensus aids. The intensity forecast is a bit more challenging, with mixed signals noted from the various intensity models. On the one hand, satellite imagery indicates the vertical wind shear is obviously diminishing over Kate, and the cyclone is forecast to move over SSTs of around 28.5 deg C for the next couple of days. However, the cyclone remains embedded within a dry mid-level environment that is clearly making it difficult for Kate to produce organized convection. The official NHC intensity forecast still shows no explicit intensity change and remains closest to the HFIP corrected consensus approach (HCCA) and IVDR aids. However, some short-term intensity fluctuations are certainly possible, which is notable since Kate's intensity is hovering around the tropical depression/storm threshold. By Thursday, Kate will be moving into an even drier, more subsident environment that will make it even more difficult to sustain deep convection. Thus, the NHC forecast shows Kate becoming a remnant low completely devoid of convection by Friday, with dissipation shortly thereafter ahead of an approaching frontal system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/2100Z 24.6N 50.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 25.5N 51.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 26.9N 52.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 02/0600Z 28.6N 53.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 02/1800Z 30.3N 54.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 03/0600Z 32.0N 54.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 03/1800Z 33.7N 53.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart

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Tropical Depression Kate Forecast Advisory Number 15

2021-08-31 22:31:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 31 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 312031 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102021 2100 UTC TUE AUG 31 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 50.9W AT 31/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 50.9W AT 31/2100Z AT 31/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 50.8W FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 25.5N 51.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 26.9N 52.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 28.6N 53.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 30.3N 54.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 32.0N 54.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 33.7N 53.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.6N 50.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART

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Tropical Depression Kate Forecast Discussion Number 14

2021-08-31 16:45:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Aug 31 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 311445 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Kate Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021 1100 AM AST Tue Aug 31 2021 Strong west-northwesterly shear continues to displace the limited convective activity associated with Kate well to the east of its center, which is fully exposed and becoming less well-defined in visible satellite imagery. A small burst of deep convection from earlier this morning appears to be waning, as infrared cloud top temperatures are warming to the east of Kate's center. Consensus T2.0/30 kt Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB, in addition to the latest objective UW-CIMSS ADT estimates, suggest that Kate is now likely a tropical depression. Therefore, the initial intensity is lowered to 30 kt for this advisory. Kate's center has jogged a little east of due north this morning, and its initial estimated 12-h motion is northward, or 010/4 kt. A mid-level ridge is forecast to build to the northeast and east of Kate later today through Wednesday, which should steer the cyclone more north-northwestward through midweek. Then, Kate should turn toward the north on Thursday night and early Friday within the flow associated with a mid- to upper-level trough that will be moving across the western Atlantic. The official NHC forecast track is very similar to the previous one, and it lies near the reliable consensus aids TVCA and HCCA. The only minor track adjustment has Kate turning a little earlier and faster toward the north late this week. Even though the vertical shear is expected to diminish over Kate during the next 12-24 h, the cyclone remains embedded within a relatively dry mid-level environment. This will make it difficult for Kate to sustain enough organized convection to strengthen much. In fact, numerous models including the GFS, HWRF, and HMON show the low weakening in the coming days, as the model simulated satellite imagery suggests only sporadic bursts of convection will occur even after the shear subsides. However, the possibility of Kate briefly re-intensifying into a weak tropical storm cannot be completely ruled out, since the cyclone will remain over warm SSTs around 28 deg C for at least the next couple of days. The official NHC intensity forecast remains consistent with the consensus aids IVCN and HCCA and shows no explicit change in intensity, although some fluctuation is possible. If Kate survives this week, the global models indicate that it will likely open up into a trough by Saturday morning, shortly before being absorbed by an approaching frontal system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/1500Z 23.5N 50.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 24.3N 51.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 01/1200Z 25.7N 51.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 02/0000Z 27.3N 52.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 02/1200Z 29.0N 53.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 03/0000Z 30.7N 54.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 03/1200Z 32.5N 53.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart

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Tropical Depression Kate Forecast Advisory Number 14

2021-08-31 16:44:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 31 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 311444 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102021 1500 UTC TUE AUG 31 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 50.8W AT 31/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 50.8W AT 31/1500Z AT 31/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 50.7W FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 24.3N 51.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 25.7N 51.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 27.3N 52.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 29.0N 53.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 30.7N 54.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 32.5N 53.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.5N 50.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/2100Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART

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