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Tropical Depression Paul Forecast Discussion Number 15
2018-09-12 04:32:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Sep 11 2018 661 WTPZ43 KNHC 120232 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Paul Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182018 800 PM PDT Tue Sep 11 2018 Active deep convection associated with Paul appears to have ceased a little earlier today, shortly after 1900 UTC. At least one more advisory will be issued just in case Paul makes an unexpected comeback, but this seems unlikely due to the 24 deg C SSTs beneath the cyclone. With no convection to sustain it, Paul will likely gradually spin down over the next few days until dissipating entirely by the weekend. Paul is now moving west with an initial motion of 275/10 kt. Now that Paul's circulation has become very shallow, it should continue to be steered generally westward to west-southwestward by the low-level tradewind flow until dissipation occurs in a few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0300Z 22.4N 126.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 12/1200Z 22.6N 128.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 13/0000Z 22.7N 129.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 13/1200Z 22.8N 130.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 14/0000Z 22.7N 131.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 15/0000Z 22.3N 132.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Summary for Tropical Depression Paul (EP3/EP182018)
2018-09-12 04:31:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...PAUL EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW OVERNIGHT... As of 8:00 PM PDT Tue Sep 11 the center of Paul was located near 22.4, -126.5 with movement W at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Paul Public Advisory Number 15
2018-09-12 04:31:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Sep 11 2018 083 WTPZ33 KNHC 120231 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Paul Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182018 800 PM PDT Tue Sep 11 2018 ...PAUL EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW OVERNIGHT... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.4N 126.5W ABOUT 1060 MI...1700 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Paul was located near latitude 22.4 North, longitude 126.5 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected for the next couple of days. A turn toward the west-southwest is possible by the end of the week. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Paul will likely become a remnant low within the next 12 hours. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Depression Paul Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2018-09-12 04:31:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 12 2018 036 FOPZ13 KNHC 120231 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAUL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182018 0300 UTC WED SEP 12 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAUL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 126.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Tropical Depression Paul Forecast Advisory Number 15
2018-09-12 04:31:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 12 2018 514 WTPZ23 KNHC 120231 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAUL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182018 0300 UTC WED SEP 12 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 126.5W AT 12/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 126.5W AT 12/0300Z AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 126.0W FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 22.6N 128.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 22.7N 129.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 22.8N 130.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 22.7N 131.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 22.3N 132.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.4N 126.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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