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Summary for Tropical Storm Paul (EP3/EP182018)

2018-09-10 16:37:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...PAUL EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOME MORE... As of 8:00 AM PDT Mon Sep 10 the center of Paul was located near 20.8, -120.7 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

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Tropical Storm Paul Public Advisory Number 9

2018-09-10 16:37:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT Mon Sep 10 2018 678 WTPZ33 KNHC 101437 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Paul Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182018 800 AM PDT Mon Sep 10 2018 ...PAUL EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOME MORE... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.8N 120.7W ABOUT 705 MI...1140 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paul was located near latitude 20.8 North, longitude 120.7 West. Paul is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and a turn toward the west-northwest is expected by tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast, and Paul is expected to become a remnant low in a few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Tropical Storm Paul Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9

2018-09-10 16:37:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 10 2018 690 FOPZ13 KNHC 101437 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM PAUL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182018 1500 UTC MON SEP 10 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAUL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 125W 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 25N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) 1(11) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Tropical Storm Paul Forecast Advisory Number 9

2018-09-10 16:36:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 10 2018 443 WTPZ23 KNHC 101436 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM PAUL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182018 1500 UTC MON SEP 10 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 120.7W AT 10/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 40SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 75SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 120.7W AT 10/1500Z AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 120.3W FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 21.4N 121.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 21.9N 123.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 22.3N 125.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 22.7N 126.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 23.5N 129.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 23.8N 130.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 24.0N 132.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.8N 120.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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