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Tropical Depression Paul Forecast Advisory Number 11
2018-09-11 04:45:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 11 2018 320 WTPZ23 KNHC 110245 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAUL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182018 0300 UTC TUE SEP 11 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 122.0W AT 11/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 122.0W AT 11/0300Z AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 121.6W FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 21.9N 123.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 22.3N 125.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 22.6N 127.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 22.9N 128.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 23.2N 130.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 23.2N 131.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 23.0N 133.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.6N 122.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression Paul Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2018-09-11 04:45:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 11 2018 317 FOPZ13 KNHC 110245 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAUL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182018 0300 UTC TUE SEP 11 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAUL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tropical Storm Paul Graphics
2018-09-10 22:36:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 10 Sep 2018 20:36:32 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 10 Sep 2018 21:46:25 GMT
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Tropical Storm Paul Forecast Discussion Number 10
2018-09-10 22:34:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Mon Sep 10 2018 501 WTPZ43 KNHC 102034 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Paul Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182018 200 PM PDT Mon Sep 10 2018 Paul continues to have a rather ragged appearance in satellite imagery. The low-level center is completely exposed to the east of a limited area of deep convection. A pair of recent ASCAT passes showed maximum winds of just below tropical-storm-force, so the initial intensity has been held at 35 kt, assuming at least a little undersampling may have occurred due to limitations of the instrument. All of the intensity guidance continues to show weakening, and Paul is forecast to become a tropical depression later tonight, and a remnant low within the next few days. Given the cold SSTs and dry air ahead of Paul, it is certainly possible that Paul could become a remnant low or dissipate sooner than currently forecast. No major changes have been made to the previous official track forecast. Paul is still moving toward the northwest with an initial motion of 315/9 kt, but a turn toward the west-northwest should begin shortly as Paul is steered increasingly by low-level trade-wind flow. By the end of the forecast period, the remnant circulation of Paul should slow down and turn westward. The new official track forecast is basically a blend of the previous forecast and HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 21.3N 121.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 11/0600Z 21.8N 122.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 11/1800Z 22.2N 124.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 12/0600Z 22.6N 126.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 12/1800Z 22.9N 127.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 13/1800Z 23.5N 129.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 14/1800Z 23.5N 131.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 15/1800Z 23.5N 132.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Zelinsky/Ramos
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Tropical Storm Paul Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2018-09-10 22:33:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 10 2018 316 FOPZ13 KNHC 102033 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM PAUL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182018 2100 UTC MON SEP 10 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAUL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY/RAMOS
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